FanGraphs Baseball

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  1. Awesome analysis. Thanks!

    Comment by Mike — May 2, 2008 @ 8:59 am

  2. Wow, this is great stuff, Dave. I’d like to see a similar look at Homer Bailey’s AAA numbers of the past two seasons. Great job!

    Comment by Mr. Redlegs — May 2, 2008 @ 10:31 am

  3. Let’s just be thankful that Gary Denbo isn’t a pitching coach and working with Cincy — because he’d ruin this guy’s career.

    Comment by Johnny Was — May 2, 2008 @ 11:36 am

  4. The people demand Dick Pole act, and act quickly! Dick Pole will fix Cueto!

    Comment by Keith — May 2, 2008 @ 12:13 pm

  5. This answers the question I posted in the “Unlucky Pitchers” post a few days ago when I was feeling lazy. Thanks Dave! You nailed it. I actually did a bit more research and posted this at a fantasy baseball site yesterday:

    Cueto has been one of the unluckiest pitchers since his first two outings. His ERA is currently 5.40 but his FIP is 4.14, which is attributed to a ridiculously low LOB% of 52%. League average LOB% for SP’s is currently around 72%. His K/BB ratio is still a ridiculous 5.55 and the .284 BABIP is pretty average . . . so in other words, he has pitched well but the majority of his bad luck and homeruns have happened with runners on base. It’s possible he simply struggles from the stretch. This is a fairly common problem for young starting pitchers who dominate minor league hitters because their experience from the stretch has been limited by the number of times they are required to do it during a game and combined with weaker competition. I don’t know for sure, but as he gains experience and his LOB% regresses to the mean, his numbers should improve. He is a sneaky buy low candidate IMO and someone worth hanging onto for awhile longer.

    Comment by Choo — May 2, 2008 @ 12:26 pm

  6. There is also concern about arm slot changes.

    Look at his first start at home, and last start at home. You will see it shift left and up according to Pitch F/X.

    Will Carrol has mentioned the change in arm slot could be an indication an injury is on the way, although it’s just a theory.

    Comment by MlbFan30 — May 2, 2008 @ 2:07 pm

  7. MLBFan– I’ve heard that Cincy has some weird things going on with the actual sportvision cameras. There are some corrections that need to be made for that park, so that might be part of what you’re seeing with the arm slot.

    Comment by dan — May 2, 2008 @ 3:36 pm

  8. MLBFan30, Cincinnati is the WORST stadium to look at PitchFX data for. When looking at release points, which is something I’m currently studying, you need to be very careful. Cincinnati is a bad team to look at. It may be that his release point is vastly different start to start but be wary of Cincy PFX data. The location of pitches, IE, where they are in the strike zone is fine, but the PFX and PFZ data is screwy.

    Comment by Eric Seidman — May 2, 2008 @ 6:15 pm

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