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  1. As a Twins fan who remembers Santana’s heyday, I’m not sure I’d trade much for him now coming off of injuries and declining stuff. He was a special pitcher, but the league has changed the last few years and there are a lot more good pitchers in the league. Put the question a bit differently–would you give up much for Jake Peavy? He was never as good as Santana, but his downward arc looks similar.

    On a related note, anyone have a clue how the heck Santana has managed to post a career .275 BABIP? We talk about Matt Cain beating his xFIPs, but jeez, Santana’s got him licked.

    Comment by Max — August 8, 2011 @ 9:58 am

  2. I wonder if the stem-cell treatment like that Bartolo Colon had would help him?

    Comment by bluejaysstatsgeek — August 8, 2011 @ 10:09 am

  3. That is a grim set of names tied to that procedure

    Comment by jesse — August 8, 2011 @ 10:20 am

  4. Major shoulder reconstruction is a lot like removing your car’s interior and putting it all back. It just never seems to fit right again, gets loose and squeaky
    over time and things just stop working. Sad for a talent like Santana.

    Comment by Hurtlocker — August 8, 2011 @ 10:40 am

  5. And here I was expecting to read another article about Johan Santa

    Comment by Bronnt — August 8, 2011 @ 11:11 am

  6. For all the bad moves the Twins have made, not resigning Santana makes up for about 1/2 of them.

    Comment by Barkey Walker — August 8, 2011 @ 11:32 am

  7. Low BABIP aren’t always luck. In this case, its a skill. Its just not a skill alot of players have.

    Whats kind of interesting is the years where his K% is highest, so is his BB%.

    Comment by RC — August 8, 2011 @ 11:47 am

  8. I thought this was about Jonah Keri, at first.

    Comment by Andrew — August 8, 2011 @ 11:48 am

  9. The package the Twins got for Santana from the Mets was pathetic, especially considering what the Red Sox and Yankees were supposedly offering two months before he took it. It looked bad at the time, and the inability of Carlos Gomez to mature into a quality player made it even worse.

    One could easily make the argument (and quite a few have) that Smith’s inability to get anything of value in return for a guy who was one of the best pitchers in the world at the time is a huge reason why they’re in the spot they are today.

    Comment by Jim — August 8, 2011 @ 11:50 am

  10. Phil Humber’s proving to by quite the 6th starter this year.

    Comment by Trotter76 — August 8, 2011 @ 12:17 pm

  11. Maybe Santana doesn’t get hurt if he stays with the twins. I seem to remember reports about how Santana seemed well positioned to age well due to the Twins’ careful handling of him.

    Also there is opportunity cost, its not like we got as much back as you’d think for the best pitcher in the mlb at the time

    Comment by Josh — August 8, 2011 @ 12:49 pm

  12. Don’t forget Jim Hoey as fruit of the trade tree!

    Comment by Small Sample Goodness — August 8, 2011 @ 1:20 pm

  13. well that would be deliciously ironic

    Comment by jim — August 8, 2011 @ 3:02 pm

  14. I think on injury risk alone with their large salaries, no one’s trading for Santana or Peavy at this point. But it should be noted that Peavy’s actually pitching in the majors unlike Johan, and his FIP and xFIP are in fact pretty close to his Cy Young year. He’s been done in by bad luck and his endurance still coming back (leading to some big innings right before he gets yanked). But he’s still capable of being a pretty darn good pitcher, as the Twins saw yesterday. If he’d just stop being so bullheaded and actually say something when he tweaks a groin or he’s feeling like he doesn’t have it and needs to come out, it’d be even better, but that appears to be something he’ll never learn.

    But yeah, Peavy’s got something from a pig attaching his lat. Not exactly the kind of thing you’d really want to bank on with big bucks.

    Comment by Yinka Double Dare — August 8, 2011 @ 4:26 pm

  15. There’s a lot of IFs in this situation.

    [1] IF he really does still have 4-5 WAR potential.
    [2] IF he can pitch 180-190 IP season.
    [3] IF the Mets are willing to pay half his salary to make a trade.

    I’m skeptical about #1 and #2, but with #3 I’m wondering why the Mets would pay another team 10-12M/y to trade for their 4-5 WAR potential pitcher that is likely going to be less attractive than Ubaldo Jimenez.

    In other words, he’s likely not going to bring back enough in trade, for NYM to part with 4-5 WAR/y and pay ~25M of Santana’s salary.

    Just who are these prospects NYM will get in return, and if they’re that good why is CIN getting rid of them?

    Comment by CircleChange11 — August 8, 2011 @ 6:42 pm

  16. You have no idea how much I hate Johan Santa.

    Comment by Eric Seidman — August 8, 2011 @ 7:07 pm

  17. Sure, there are plenty of IFs in this situation. The same can be said of any situation. And I was pretty clear that the trade talks were all MAYBEs, as the idea had been floated previously, but never really gained much traction. And, again, as I mentioned in the post, a team like the Reds has a deep farm system with road-blocked players that wouldn’t hurt them to unload. That type of situation, and those types of players, would benefit the Mets the same way Johan would benefit the other team. It’s all speculative, so don’t take anything written above as 100 percent guaranteed. I made sure nothing came off that way.

    Comment by Eric Seidman — August 8, 2011 @ 7:11 pm

  18. Hey, last I checked, Johan Santana was pitching really well for the Angels. I also don’t see where left shoulder fatigue is an issue – said Johan Santana is right handed :-P

    Comment by AA — August 9, 2011 @ 12:40 am

  19. Poor comparison. Peavy has been hurt a lot, but has never been bad when he has played. Santana has not been a really good pitcher since 2008.

    Comment by evo34 — August 9, 2011 @ 3:30 am

  20. His engine was stalling well before shoulder surgery. Has hasn’t been elite since 2007.

    Comment by evo34 — August 9, 2011 @ 3:31 am

  21. No one in his right mind would trade for a guy who throws 89 (vs. mid-90s in his peak) and has major injury question marks. If the Mets were a public corporation, Santana as an asset would be marked to zero. He’s not even a late-career LOOGY candidate, as he is actually a bit better against righties.

    Comment by evo34 — August 9, 2011 @ 3:36 am

  22. In Responce to AA

    You are clearly confusing Johan Santana with Ervin Santana of the Angels and although similar in name and stature Johan by far had a better arsenal with the twins and his early days with the mets… and to clarify Johan unlike Ervin is a left handed pitcher so the reconstruction of his left shoulder is very relevant because if history serves us correctly no athlete has been able to reclaim the same arm strength after such a bout under the knife

    So AA you i hope you check yourself next time you post… unless of course if this was a pun than haha good old clean name joke but i think you was pretty stupid* no need for that ignorance on fangraphs giving all of us a bad name F*** g0d******

    *incorrect grammar use was a pun in junction with “pretty stupid” (see AA this is how you clarify that you are not being an ignorant poster/ass wipe)

    Comment by Check Your Self — August 9, 2011 @ 3:49 am

  23. evo, Santana’s been plenty good. He obviously hasn’t been an ace like he was a few years back, but he’s been a good pitcher. ERA right around 3.00, worth 3 wins a year, FIP in line with 2007-2008. His strikeout rate as fallen off, but he’s still been productive while on the mound.

    Comment by vivalajeter — August 9, 2011 @ 3:34 pm

  24. Speaking of IF’s, I wonder if:

    1) Santana pitches pretty well next year, but is more of an overpaid #3 starter.
    2) The Mets aren’t in contention next year (although this is a ‘when’, not an ‘if)
    3) The Mets place him on waivers next August.

    Will another team put a claim on him, thinking he could help them out in the playoffs? If so, will the Mets let him go as a salary dump, without getting anything in return.

    Comment by vivalajeter — August 9, 2011 @ 3:39 pm

  25. Remember how he pitched on 3 days rest the last game of the 2008 season hoping to make the playoffs? He threw a 3 hit shutout striking out 9 right after having about 8 straight games of throwing 108 to 125 pitches when that season he hadn’t been totally right or thrown back to back games of 8 and 9 innings with pretty high pitch counts. He only threw 234 innings compared to 219 in 2007… but did throw 253 more pitches and if the Twins were being careful with him(a 6 foot lefty whose fastball had been declining almost every year.)

    While his numbers don’t look bad with the Mets, I actually only think his first season was good. His ERA is deceptive pitching in Citi Bank in 09 and 10. In 09, he was 5-6 with an ERA over 4 and his WHIP was 1.365. And the splits were better in the next year but he was constantly hurt. They should have shut him down after 08 when he kept having arm fatigue with fastball not even averaging over 90 mph. His changeup would suffer if his fastball isn’t 91-94 mph. I don’t see this ending well, I mean, he’ll be 33 next year. Similar to Brandon Webb… but Harden is still teasing teams into thinking he’ll be healthy one day. I guess anything is possible.

    Comment by Kyle — August 12, 2011 @ 3:02 pm

  26. Carlos Gomez and Phil Humber have out surplus valued Johan Santana big time since the trade. Not spending that extra money they saved wisely is costing the Twins more than not paying Santana.

    Comment by glassSheets — August 12, 2011 @ 5:20 pm

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