Yep, it’s just the New York media over-reacting to a small sample size. I’m willing to bet that Rivera will still be Rivera before the season ends.
Comment by TheGrandslamwich — August 12, 2011 @ 2:41 pm
I think time will tell if he’s done or not. Rivera has done this several times, pitch ineffectively for a couple of games in a row, and then suddenly go on a hot streak where no one has touched him for about a month.
Joe Girardi said it best (And I don’t get to say that very often), if this happened for about a month, there would be a cause for concern.
I do think Mo will retire though after next year if he does indeed pitch ineffectively from here on out.
I would still take him in the 9th over almost any other closer.
The one minor concern though is that August and Sept/Oct are the months throughout Rivera’s career in which he is at his worst. And those worst numbers still today would be amongst some of the best in the game. And when I said October it’s referring to the regular season October games, not the postseason.
Again, I think we just have to wait and see. If he is un-Mo like for awhile (Meaning for the rest of the month or so), there’s a definite cause for concern.
I’m a baseball fan, not a New York Yankee baseball fan, so I haven’t been following any of this. Rivera is Rivera until someone can prove to me that he’s fallen off a cliff. I don’t see that he has just yet.
Age catches up with every player, we know that. But when a guy like Rivera does what he does so well and so consistently for so long we want it to never end. Good luck to him and maybe he will pitch till he’s 50!!
This got em thinking. Will Rivera make the hall of fame? Should he? He sits at 38 WAR at age 41 and I have seen 50 WAR quoted regularly as a bare minimum to get in. Unlikely he picks up another 12 before retirement. He probably doesn’t come real close to 50 for his career. Still, he’s been the best player at his position for most of the last 15 years. A position where most players flame out in less than a third of that.
Does he deserve consideration for pitching in all those postseason games? Do people start to cut relievers some slack since it is hard for them to rack up WAR? Do the answers to these questions differ if he played his career somewhere else?
The difference in the standings between the Blue Jays and the Yankees is greater than 10 games. Mariano doesn’t provide 10+ WAR for the Yankees, so even without him, the Blue Jays would still not be viable contenders for the AL East or AL Wild Card.
And the Blue Jays traded Marc Rzepczynski: he went to my high school!! But the team I hate the most is the Phiilles because of their treatment of Ben Francisco. Play him more!!
Comment by ServiteLegend — August 12, 2011 @ 3:25 pm
As a Red Sox fan, I’ve hoped for the beginning of the end for Mo forever now. At this point, I’ll believe it when I see it.
I thought FanGraphs posters would realize that WAR for pitchers has to be adjusted due to high leverage situations.
Comment by ServiteLegend — August 12, 2011 @ 3:31 pm
MikeS – he’s first ballot. WAR is a terrible way too judge his value. Its blatantly obvious his low BABIP and low HR/FB rates aren’t flukes, yet WAR regresses them anyway. Not to mention it ignores context/leverage.
He means the same as you do – you’ve got to take into account that he pitches in high leverage situations. His 38 WAR are context independent, so if his average LI were 2 it’d be worth the same 76 WAR from someone who pitches in neutral leverage situations.
He’s a total shoe-in. The fact that anyone thinks he won’t get into the hall is hilarious.
The point was that the Yankees were so talented that they would likely be ahead of the Blue Jays, even if Rivera was replaced by a mediocre middle-reliever. Rivera might be a reason why they are in a close race for the AL East with the Red Sox, but the Yankees will make the post-season without him.
Comment by ServiteLegend — August 12, 2011 @ 4:31 pm
Long Live Ben Francisco, Dan Klein, Marc Rzepczynski!!
Comment by ServiteLegend — August 12, 2011 @ 4:32 pm
Did you just say that Mo is at his worst in October? Because that is wrong, just so very wrong. What is perhaps most amazing about Mo is that when the game is taken to the next level, The Post Season, he demonstrably ups his game, he is a superior pitcher during the post season in a way that no other player has ever been able to achieve. Guys like Jeter and Bernie, who played in the post season almost every year, their post season states eventually got to about their regular season stats because of regression to the mean, for Rivera, this is not true. He does not regress, he dominates, against better teams, in higher pressure situations, and he will do it for longer (more 2 innings saves). I don’t want to bother with states here, but I will if you ask.
Comment by Cliff Lee's Changeup — August 12, 2011 @ 5:49 pm
Hey! Baseball Reference has him at 54.8 WAR right now.
Comment by JohnnyComeLately — August 12, 2011 @ 5:55 pm
Your point has nothing to do with either siggian’s comment or the article. Unlike your Marc Rzepczynski comment. Totally relevant. Thanks for that.
Comment by JohnnyComeLately — August 12, 2011 @ 5:57 pm
As a Yankee fan who watches a lot of games Mo always go through a 2-3 game stretch at least once a year. Remember actually early in the year he blew a few leads one being in toronto and the yankees lost the game on a walk off hit by Travis Snider
Mariano Rivera will probably get 650 saves. However, a closer’s collapse may be precipitous: Hoffman had a 1.83 ERA season in 2010 (and 37 saves) with great peripherals HR/9: 0.3 K/9 8.0, and BB/9 2.3, but was absolutely atrocious in 2011. One cannot infer a collapse based on his 2010 stats
Comment by ServiteLegend — August 12, 2011 @ 6:26 pm
After the Allied Victory in the Battle of El Alamein, Churchill said it was not the “beginning of the end” but the End of the Beginning.
Comment by BenFrancisco's butt on the Philles Bench — August 12, 2011 @ 6:28 pm
I believe bWAR is based off of ERA (RA?) while fWAR is based off of FIP.
“Why the huge difference between FG and BR? Does BR take LI into account or something?”
Basically it’s this:
Career ERA: 2.24
Career FIP: 2.77
The gap over 1195 innings is 70 runs. So it depends on whether or not think his defense saved him 70 runs over his career, or you think his cutter suppresses BABIP and he should get credit for that. Given the quality or lack thereof of the defense behind him over most of his career, I think FIP is penalizing him unfairly. He’s an outlier.
So even if you completely ignore leverage, you can add something like 7 to 10 wins to his Fangraphs WAR just on the difference between ERA and FIP.
“When Mariano finally retires, my guess is the only category Wilhelm still outpaces him in his Innings Pitched”
Yeah, just that.
I have no problem agreeing that Mo is the best closer since baseball bastardized the closer role, but since he hasn’t been asked to pitch 100+ innings each year, I have a major issue agreeing that Mo is better than Hoyt, Lyle, Eck, Goose, Quisenberry, et el were when the closer role often had these guys pitch 2+ innings – actually close close games out. It’s a whole new role today and there’s no data proving that Mo could have been any where near as successful as those other guys after pitching so often.
Mo is the best closer today, though. Or at least he was last week :)
Comment by Sultan of Schwwingg — August 12, 2011 @ 8:30 pm
Walkoff HBP to Jeff Francouer with bases loaded was the ugliest.
I don’t agree that the closer role has been ‘bastardized.’ There’s nothing wrong with the closer role as it is today, except that managers are often reluctant to use the closer (their best reliever) when a high leverage situation arises in the 7th or 8th inning. Mariano was very effective in over 100 innings as a setup man for John Wetteland in 1996. The only person who thinks that Goose Gossage was better than Mariano Rivera is Goose Gossage.
He definitely will get in, but it IS a little weird letting somebody in who flunked out as a starter, no? I mean, Roy Oswalt isn’t a HOFer, but we would have a much easier team replicating Mo’s career than Mo would replicating Oswalt’s, right?
What’s behind those links, if you’re too lazy to check them out, are the career leaders for adjusted ERA+ and WPA. Mo is 6th all time in WPA (1st among RPs), and first – by 50 points – in ERA+. If you prefer WPA/LI, he’s 22nd all time in that, again including starters. And none of that includes his postseason dominance, which was totally unprecedented – 140 IP, .7 ERA.
Mo’s effectiveness isn’t about his 2seamer velocity its about his cutter movement and location. When the cutter stops cutting is when Mariano starts his free fall. His cutter has been flat the past few games but I wouldn’t say its Father Time just yet, get back to me in October.
Comment by Shaun Catron — August 13, 2011 @ 4:18 am
Haha, that’s true. It’s just stuck in my brain because it’s all I’ve been hearing the last few days on radio shows.
D.J. Carrasco averages like 1.74 innings per game, but that doesn’t make him better than Rivera or Eckersley or even Gossage. The quality of innings thrown is just as important as the quantity. Why do you think that Rivera has compiled more fWAR than Goosage in over 600 fewer innings? Probably because, according to ERA-, his innings have been twice as good as the average pitcher over the span of his career. A.J. Burnett could stand on the mound and struggle his way through 5 innings, giving up 8 runs along the way, but just because he pitched 5 innings doesn’t mean he performed well.
Reports are his velocity is down from last year. Leastwise I’ve seen people post that his velocity is down from last year. I’m taking those posters at their word. Which you can certainly value or devalue as you deem fit.