This reminds me of an old joke that I think was made about the Giants when they were still at Candlestick. One year they played on astroturf, the next year they pulled up the turf and put in grass. Both years they underperformed which prompted one sportswriter to write that the next year they should tear up the grass and put down paper because the Giants always look good on paper.
how depressing would it be if this had ended up showing that they should be worse? also, is it even possible for any algorithm to project a position player to hit as poorly as chone figgins is?
Comment by juan pierre's mustache — August 18, 2011 @ 11:24 am
BABIPs do not always normalize. Sometimes they are indicators that a player just doesn’t have it anymore. Maybe they lost a step, or some bat speed. Maybe they just don’t make good contact for whatever reason.
Ichiro is geting old. Figgins isn’t, unless maybe he is. Some guys just flame out early. Peguero isn’t old, and while he’s got terrific BABIPs in the minors his K% is and has always been unconscionable. It’s entirely possible that Major League pitchers are simply too much for him. Gutierrez has had exactly one good year, and it may have been a career peak. Saunders has about 600 career PA. He might regress up, but ZIPS still doesnt give a whole lot of hope.
So yes. It’s possible that the luck dragon has a lair in the bowels of SafeCo Field. It’s also possible that these guys are just not very good hitters.
Yeah, I used career rates because they tend to be where a player stays. But that’s tend, not are. Is Suzuki getting too old to keep his BABIP crazy high? Maybe — though his steals aren’t down. It’s hard to say.
It sure does seem crazy that almost the entire team would be due a positive regression, but this season has been pretty crazy for the Mariners.
I wonder how this practice stacks up to last years stats? Everyone was saying the Mariners were under-performing, and unlucky last year, but I see the same thing this year and I’m starting to think there is something that the statistics are missing. Can you do the same table for this date last year and then shadow the projected results with the actual results?
Also showing us Figgins/Cust/Saunders/Peguero is irrelevant since none of them will get significant playing time for the rest of the year.
It’s true that many of these players would be due for serious regression, but a lot of them aren’t playing any more. The Mariners have routinely filled their lineups with new players the last few weeks (Carp, Robinson, Wells, Seager, etc.), and I would only expect that to continue.
Comment by Notrotographs — August 18, 2011 @ 2:56 pm
I don’t think you should regress using career BABIP for guys who have lost considerable power, i.e. they don’t hit the ball as hard anymore. Figgins can barely get the ball out of the infield right now.
A. Morrow can shut down anybody when he’s on and he looked good yesterday.
B. The last couple of weeks the Mariners have been aggressively regressing to the mean. However, a lot of the hitting action has been Carp, the new guy Robinson, and the new guy Wells. Gutierrez resurgence has been fueled by a recrudescence of his BABIP, not sustainable, but he has been hitting the ball harder the last week or so.
Their problem (unless a team filled with rookies should actually be said to be “in process”) is that the pitching has been regressing to the mean in the other direction.
Cody, that’s not really complete. The only significant difference in how Safeco affects handedness is in home runs. Right-handed hitters have a difficult time hitting homers in Safeco, while left-handers have it easier than most other parks. But if you look at the other batting events, it plays about the same for either handedness. So the hitters that get hurt the most are right-handed power hitters, while the players that get hurt the least are left-handed power hitters. If you’re a real good power hitting lefty that likes to pull the ball a lot, you may even be helped by Safeco. So while it sort of plays like two different parks for power hitters, it is pretty much equally bad for non-power hitters, such as Figgins, regardless of handedness.
Comment by Nathaniel Dawson — August 18, 2011 @ 8:36 pm