FanGraphs Baseball


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  1. Great graph, conceptually. Didn’t really dig into SHHAP or SHIP or whatever it is the first time around, so I won’t comment on the results. But just a very appealing end result to look at. Nice.

    Comment by Telo — August 18, 2011 @ 11:13 am

  2. This reminds me of an old joke that I think was made about the Giants when they were still at Candlestick. One year they played on astroturf, the next year they pulled up the turf and put in grass. Both years they underperformed which prompted one sportswriter to write that the next year they should tear up the grass and put down paper because the Giants always look good on paper.

    Comment by MikeS — August 18, 2011 @ 11:15 am

  3. “Should Hit (ShH, for short)” – that’s not the abbreviation I would use after the watching the Mariners all year.

    Comment by Thompson — August 18, 2011 @ 11:18 am

  4. how depressing would it be if this had ended up showing that they should be worse? also, is it even possible for any algorithm to project a position player to hit as poorly as chone figgins is?

    Comment by juan pierre's mustache — August 18, 2011 @ 11:24 am

  5. BABIPs do not always normalize. Sometimes they are indicators that a player just doesn’t have it anymore. Maybe they lost a step, or some bat speed. Maybe they just don’t make good contact for whatever reason.

    Ichiro is geting old. Figgins isn’t, unless maybe he is. Some guys just flame out early. Peguero isn’t old, and while he’s got terrific BABIPs in the minors his K% is and has always been unconscionable. It’s entirely possible that Major League pitchers are simply too much for him. Gutierrez has had exactly one good year, and it may have been a career peak. Saunders has about 600 career PA. He might regress up, but ZIPS still doesnt give a whole lot of hope.

    So yes. It’s possible that the luck dragon has a lair in the bowels of SafeCo Field. It’s also possible that these guys are just not very good hitters.

    Comment by David — August 18, 2011 @ 11:25 am

  6. Awesome! Thank you.

    Comment by Stuart — August 18, 2011 @ 11:25 am

  7. Thanks, Telo!

    Comment by Bradley Woodrum — August 18, 2011 @ 11:37 am

  8. Hahaha, that’s a good one. I hope — for the Mariners’ sake — their improvement isn’t in paper only.

    Comment by Bradley Woodrum — August 18, 2011 @ 11:42 am

  9. Too bad the M’s released Jack Cust, that 2% improvement would have made all the difference…

    Comment by bjones — August 18, 2011 @ 11:43 am

  10. Yeah, I used career rates because they tend to be where a player stays. But that’s tend, not are. Is Suzuki getting too old to keep his BABIP crazy high? Maybe — though his steals aren’t down. It’s hard to say.

    It sure does seem crazy that almost the entire team would be due a positive regression, but this season has been pretty crazy for the Mariners.

    Comment by Bradley Woodrum — August 18, 2011 @ 11:47 am

  11. Yeah, I was surprised to see such little regression in his profile. He seemed perfectly capable these past few years, but apparently that was more mirage, less huzzah.

    Comment by Bradley Woodrum — August 18, 2011 @ 11:48 am

  12. Loves me some Tableau. Use it frequently myself and it’s great stuff.

    Comment by futant462 — August 18, 2011 @ 11:49 am

  13. Chone defies all predictive powers. He is the Great Collapse.

    Comment by Bradley Woodrum — August 18, 2011 @ 11:49 am

  14. Yeah, I’m pretty much addicted at this point.

    Comment by Bradley Woodrum — August 18, 2011 @ 11:53 am

  15. Yea, the main graph doesn’t load for me in FF6/Win7pro, though I’m VPNed so who knows

    Comment by Telo — August 18, 2011 @ 12:04 pm

  16. Works in Chrome and IE. First time I’ve seen FF let me down like that.

    Comment by Telo — August 18, 2011 @ 12:07 pm


    Comment by Bradley Woodrum — August 18, 2011 @ 12:14 pm

  18. watching that collection of garbage hopelessly flailing at brandon morrow’s fastball yesterday makes me seriously doubt they should be 29% better. in fact, i’m astonished they managed to score a run

    Comment by steve — August 18, 2011 @ 12:17 pm

  19. The problem is, you’re assuming that BABIP isn’t influenced by park factors. I’d EXPECT a drastic drop in BABIP when a guy goes to Safeco.

    Its a tough field to hit in, and Figgins is particularly poorly suited to it.

    Comment by RC — August 18, 2011 @ 12:31 pm

  20. I am protesting this article until I hear one good reason why it isn’t abbreviated SHit.

    Comment by Tyler — August 18, 2011 @ 12:33 pm

  21. I would be even more intrigued to see a split between home/away numbers for BABIP vs Should Hit

    Comment by Colin — August 18, 2011 @ 12:39 pm

  22. NOTE: I’ve tweaked the setting to make the middle graph more readable.

    Comment by Bradley Woodrum — August 18, 2011 @ 12:48 pm

  23. I dunno, the children?

    Comment by Bradley Woodrum — August 18, 2011 @ 12:48 pm

  24. Problem is: Chone has a career BABIP of .300 at Safeco, no where near his present .215. Moreover, he’s 47 wRC+ at home and 23 away. Both are miserable, but that’s twice as good at Safeco than away.

    Comment by Bradley Woodrum — August 18, 2011 @ 12:52 pm

  25. I wonder how this practice stacks up to last years stats? Everyone was saying the Mariners were under-performing, and unlucky last year, but I see the same thing this year and I’m starting to think there is something that the statistics are missing. Can you do the same table for this date last year and then shadow the projected results with the actual results?
    Also showing us Figgins/Cust/Saunders/Peguero is irrelevant since none of them will get significant playing time for the rest of the year.

    Comment by Cody — August 18, 2011 @ 12:52 pm

  26. And by “Career” you mean “one season at”.

    There’s a very real possibility that his true babip at safeco is somewhere between that .300 and the .215 of this year, and neither one is really that much of an outlier.

    He’s 33 years old, playing in a terrible hitter’s park, has never had any power, and he’s regressed significantly at the one thing he was ever good at: taking a walk.

    I think assuming that his BABIP should improve isn’t an assumption thats really based in reality.

    Comment by RC — August 18, 2011 @ 1:25 pm

  27. False on two counts: That’s a career BABIP based on 700+ PAs, and Safeco is a pitcher’s park in reputation more than in reality.

    Safeco is closer to US Cellular Field than it is to Petco.

    Comment by Bradley Woodrum — August 18, 2011 @ 1:32 pm

  28. Safco is tough because it is really two parks. Depending on which side of the plate you hit from. Of Figgins hits from both so I don’t know what his problem is.

    Comment by Cody — August 18, 2011 @ 1:38 pm

  29. It’s true that many of these players would be due for serious regression, but a lot of them aren’t playing any more. The Mariners have routinely filled their lineups with new players the last few weeks (Carp, Robinson, Wells, Seager, etc.), and I would only expect that to continue.

    Comment by Avery — August 18, 2011 @ 1:49 pm

  30. Also Saunders and Peguero aren’t on the 25 man and in Saunders case hasn’t been for months. Would have been nice to see projections for the guys they’ve actually been playing like Wells and Carp.

    Comment by DavidB — August 18, 2011 @ 1:52 pm

  31. 700 PA’s (which is one season worth) isn’t really all that much when we talk about BABIP.

    Comment by RC — August 18, 2011 @ 1:54 pm

  32. And since when is 10% runs suppression NOT a pitchers park?Not to mention, the only thing that Safeco is positive in, are HRs and BBs, and Chone never hits homeruns.

    Comment by RC — August 18, 2011 @ 2:12 pm

  33. At least someone is thinking of them.

    Comment by Notrotographs — August 18, 2011 @ 2:56 pm

  34. I don’t think you should regress using career BABIP for guys who have lost considerable power, i.e. they don’t hit the ball as hard anymore. Figgins can barely get the ball out of the infield right now.

    Comment by David — August 18, 2011 @ 3:05 pm

  35. Still think ShH should be named FIB (fielding independent batting).

    Then you can talk about the FIB saying the Mariners should be better ;)

    Comment by joe — August 18, 2011 @ 4:28 pm

  36. Yeah, I was thinking ShHit.

    Comment by Brandon Warne — August 18, 2011 @ 4:37 pm

  37. Maybe. Argument for the defense (offense?):

    A. Morrow can shut down anybody when he’s on and he looked good yesterday.

    B. The last couple of weeks the Mariners have been aggressively regressing to the mean. However, a lot of the hitting action has been Carp, the new guy Robinson, and the new guy Wells. Gutierrez resurgence has been fueled by a recrudescence of his BABIP, not sustainable, but he has been hitting the ball harder the last week or so.

    Their problem (unless a team filled with rookies should actually be said to be “in process”) is that the pitching has been regressing to the mean in the other direction.

    Comment by Gary York — August 18, 2011 @ 5:30 pm

  38. That graph is awesome. Loved the article.

    Comment by Sitting Curveball — August 18, 2011 @ 8:22 pm

  39. Cody, that’s not really complete. The only significant difference in how Safeco affects handedness is in home runs. Right-handed hitters have a difficult time hitting homers in Safeco, while left-handers have it easier than most other parks. But if you look at the other batting events, it plays about the same for either handedness. So the hitters that get hurt the most are right-handed power hitters, while the players that get hurt the least are left-handed power hitters. If you’re a real good power hitting lefty that likes to pull the ball a lot, you may even be helped by Safeco. So while it sort of plays like two different parks for power hitters, it is pretty much equally bad for non-power hitters, such as Figgins, regardless of handedness.

    Comment by Nathaniel Dawson — August 18, 2011 @ 8:36 pm

  40. My thought exactly. Pretty please???

    Comment by Peter — August 19, 2011 @ 2:01 am

  41. If Ackley gets a lot of his value from doubles and triples – which he has so far – shouldn’t a metric based on walks, strikeouts, and home runs naturally underrate him?

    Comment by Hejuk — August 19, 2011 @ 11:05 am

  42. Interesting stuff. Love the subtle Arrested Development reference.

    Comment by Some Dude — August 19, 2011 @ 6:31 pm

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