Selling high on Cabrera this offseason would make perfect sense! Cain is 25 and not getting any younger and should be a great addition for them in CF. Melky has been playing incredibly over his head all year.
In 2011, Cabrera doubled his career WAR by producing more in 2011 (3.6) than he had for his entire pre-2011 career (2.6 WAR over 6 seasons). The Melk man is due for some heavy regression, notably in BABIP (.333 in ’11, .297 career), ISO (.175 in ’11, .123 career).
Frenchy is also due to be “disappointing Frenchy” in 2012, followed by “Surprising Frenchy” in 2013.
The other OF position is held down by Alex Gordon, whose 4.6 WAR is also higher than his career total, and he’s (unsurprisingly) had career highs in BABIP (.352/3.09), ISO (.184/.167),
The KC OF has been worth 10.5 WAR. I wonder where that ranks in MLB?
That same OF could regress to 5 WAR and no one would be shocked. I hope they don’t, and I really hope Alex Gordon is really a 4+ WAR player.
Comment by CircleChange11 — August 18, 2011 @ 2:45 pm
Someone remind Frenchy to send Meche a thank you card.
Comment by TheGrandslamwich — August 18, 2011 @ 3:09 pm
Melky’s BABIP could also be a product of hitting the ball better though. Just because it’s significantly higher doesn’t mean it has to come down. If he’s hitting the ball better than previously in his career, the BABIP will be up.
The problem with this move by the Royals is the low upside. We are likely seeing Frenchy’s best year at the plate right now. If he reverts in any way back to his old self, the deal is a vast overpay. The soft bigotry of low expectations is what we have here. If a team like Boston or another top contender did this exact deal, it would be getting a lot more negative attention.
Comment by Phantom Stranger — August 19, 2011 @ 1:48 am
Hmm a streaky aging veteran who still has terrible plate discipline w/ a terribly lucky BABIP.
sounds like a KC move
Comment by Shaun Catron — August 19, 2011 @ 5:36 am
That would certainly fit in with recent history of getting rid of all the good players.