I have no faith in this Bsr stat. As is stated, it seems odd that Boston is 29th when it has Crawford and Ellsbury. And even with A-Gon and Ortiz slowing everyone down, with those two speedsters, as well as players like Reddick, Lowrie, and Pedroia, it seems that at the very least their Bsr numbers would be close to average. I also think a lot of Boston players have lower Bsr stats because of the wall, as it’s much harder to go 1st to 3rd on a left-field hit in Boston than it is in almost any other park. But regardless of that, just from quick passes through Bsr stats for the top 30 in WAR, it seems like there are way too many cases of questionable Bsr numbers for players to make me confident in its reliability.
Admittedly I’m not too familiar with the BSR stat but I gotta wonder if Boston’s BSR numbers get hurt because of how great of offense they have. It seems like players may be more reluctant to take the extra base because they don’t want to run themselves into an out since they have such a potent lineup.(For example when you have A-Gon, Youk, Ortiz and Crawford all waiting to come up, why take the risk of running into a 3rd out because of bad baserunning?) If you played on a weaker lineup your 3B coach(or the runner themself) may be more aggressive since they may feel they have to be to score.
On top of that with LFers normally playing more shallow at Fenway it makes it more difficult to score from 2nd on a basehit and I believe that would hurt them as well. But like I said I’m not real familiar with the stat so this could have nothing to do with it, just throwing it out there.
Out of curiosity, is a post ever going to be made about Tabata’s contract extension?
Comment by A guy from PA — August 22, 2011 @ 4:54 pm
Methodology question/point… with only about 20% of the season left, shouldn’t what a team has actually done carry more weight than the fans predictions? I understand and agree with using it throughout the first half of the season, but with 80% of the season done, what everyone thought in March doesn’t seem to matter as much… and sorry if this has been brought up recently. And yes I realize that WAR is weighed more heavily now than it was in May, but WAR also doesn’t capture the end result of a game (see Colorado or the Cubs or Reds).
Well WAR% is weighted at 80% now so its the majority of the weight. For future use, I think it would be beneficial for the FAN% to be crowd sourced every week but then again, its probably more work than what is possible. I am sure they will adjust this for next year after seeing how this year plays out before making changes. And WAR doesn’t capture the end result and its not supposed to. Its supposed to capture what essentially should happen and part of the fun is seeing how stats and results differ but in the end, WAR generally better predicts future performance over W/L. Also, if this only captured end results, you can go to mlb.com to look at the standings, that should serve your purpose which is a fair purpose, just not what this series is trying to do.
Comment by 28 this year — August 22, 2011 @ 7:08 pm
No I get that this power poll isn’t supposed to just order the records for us, I’m pretty sure no one wants that. I’m just saying that at some point what people thought in March no longer matters be it because of trades or injuries or good/back luck. I understand WAR is ‘bridging’ the talent gap, but even I, who don’t think the Indians are that good, would put them down as the 23rd best team in the majors. Obviously one or two spots off doesn’t matter, but are we sure Colorado would easily handle the Tribe in, say, a 15 game series? I get why the Reds are such a gigantic out liar, but I don’t get why the Rockies and the Cubs are too. I guess it would also help to see this graphed out now that I think of it… the Cubs being .09 better than the Nats doesn’t mean anything to me (other than there is probably a flaw some where). Is it a minor or big flaw, I don’t know… I’m not being hyper critical, just find this interesting.
Ron Washington didn’t start playing Napoli everyday until Beltre got hurt. That’s when Napoli got hot and he’s been playing everyday (at C/1B/DH) since that injury. So I’m not convinced that Washington should get a ton of praise for Napoli’s playing time lately. He would have kept Napoli on the bench if Beltre stayed healthy. We’ll see what he does when Beltre returns. Torrealba should be mostly benched but I doubt that will happen.
Not only is Mike Napoli on track to set several career highs offensively, but he is having his best year behind the dish as well, and his 4 DRS even bests Jeff Mathis. Funny what happens when a player goes to a team where the manager focuses on his strengths instead of harping on his weaknesses.
I really like Mike Napoli, but this comment bothers me.
Small sample size. The difference between Napoli’s D in the past and this year is that (A) he’s turned into Yadi Molina throwing runners out (9 CS in 21 SBA). Taylor Teagarden has also done something similar (7 CS in 13 SBA). Both guys are way above their career average. Yorvit is at his career average (twice as many games at catcher than Napoli, 6 times more than Teagarden).
Seriously, he has 40 games behind the plate in Texas. He’s thrown out more runners and made fewer throwing errors. I don;t see how this is TEX playing to Napoli’s strengths.
When i first read this comment, I figured it was just small sample size being used to make a stinky comment toward an organization that FG is not a big fan of, so I started looking into it with the suspicion that maybe TEX pitchers were doing something to reduce the running game. They could be throwing to first more, more effective pauses, double and triple looks, pitchouts, fastballs in base-stealing counts … or perhaps guys that shouldn;t be stealing bases are trying it because, after all, it is Mike napoli behind the plate and his career CS% ain’t that great.
It could be lots of things. I’m doubtful that it’s because he’s with a better organization, or getting better coaching, or a more posiitve environment, etc.
9 CS in 21 SBA
6 errors reduced to 1
There’s his improvement.
Given another ~30 games to match his games caught total in LA, and he might make up the difference.
Comment by CircleChange11 — August 23, 2011 @ 9:25 am
Don’t let the minor details (the reliability or unreliability of whatever defensive metric we’re looking at today) obscure the major, blindingly obvious point (Napoli >>>>> Mathis in total value, this year, last year, every year, and dumping Napoli in favor of Mathis was just a bone-headed, easily avoidale blunder).
He’s at an all-time low in value and he’s worth way more to Seattle than to any other franchise (of course, way more than $0 isn’t that much).
Comment by The Nicker — August 23, 2011 @ 12:01 pm
I think the author’s quote that Washington is focussing on Napoli’s strengths instead of his weakness assumes quite a lot about the relationship between Napoli and Washington that the author has no way of knowing. Maybe Napoli is playing better because his manager tells him he’s super, or maybe getting some regular playing time as a result of an injury to Beltre is good for him.
This is true. Given his relationship with the principal owner Ichiro is only getting shopped if Ichiro wants to be shopped, and even if he decided to go elsewhere I can’t see a taker. I’m pretty sure he thinks he can turn it around for the reminder of his contract (and career), and he plans to do so in Seattle; it’s widely suspected that if he can’t he’ll walk away from his contract with dignity and retire back to Japan a la Kenji Johjima.
Okay, this is just crazy now. BOTH Pedroia and Ellsbury have negative Bsr while Bautista has +3. I do not see the logic in that at all; I can tell you as a Boston fan who’s watched most of their games, Pedroia and Ellsbury are both above-average on the basepaths. They may not be perfect, and not going 2nd-to-home as often as you said, but they definitely effect the game. I think Fangraphs really needs to look into re-working this stat. There are just too many inconsistencies in my opinion.