FanGraphs Baseball

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  1. Wonderful! May I have a sortable SD% though?

    Comment by Dan — August 24, 2011 @ 3:29 pm

  2. I think Venters and Kimbrel are close enough to where the limited opportunity to use Kimbrel plays a significant role in the difference in the SDs. Kimbrel would still have more MDs, but coupled with their age differences I’m still saying Kimbrel is the more impressive season.

    Comment by deadpool — August 24, 2011 @ 3:32 pm

  3. Any love for Antonio Bastardo?

    Comment by trent — August 24, 2011 @ 3:49 pm

  4. What limited opportunity? Oh right, their hands are bound by a stupid statistic :)

    Comment by David — August 24, 2011 @ 4:13 pm

  5. Bingo. If there was no save stat you have to wonder if this Braves team would have lost a late lead all season.

    Comment by deadpool — August 24, 2011 @ 4:16 pm

  6. This is probably the best method of bullpen evaluation but it’s not quite flawless.

    A ninth inning save allowing 1 or 2 runs would still be a shutdown as WPA is increased. Probably not true of a 7th inning guy. An 8th inning guy allowing 1 run but preserving a 2 run lead might get a shut down, I’m not sure.

    But it situations where the lead is only 1 run, you would get a meltdown for the same performance.

    My point is that this system favors pitchers who enter games in more favorable situations as a lesser performance can get a better WPA. Close games anything but perfect gives a loss of WPA.

    Comment by Joe — August 24, 2011 @ 4:23 pm

  7. Downs.

    Comment by ineedanap — August 24, 2011 @ 4:24 pm

  8. Of League’s 17er this season, 10 came in 4 appearances over 5 days, with high pitch counts in each. One theory: League dominates except when his Manager overworks him in a short period.

    Comment by Steve Balboni — August 24, 2011 @ 4:58 pm

  9. I imagine a 3 run lead entering the 9th inning gives you a better than 94% chance of winning the game.

    Comment by Person — August 24, 2011 @ 5:08 pm

  10. Venters is pitching on another level this year. As long as Fredi does not blow his arm out from overuse, we are witnessing the birth of the next Mariano. His sinking cutter/screw pitch is something that MLB hitters have never faced at 96 MPH. Some teams have so given up trying to hit him that many batters are simply hoping to get walked now when facing him.

    Comment by Phantom Stranger — August 24, 2011 @ 6:31 pm

  11. How can someone get a Save and not a SD? Presumably when you complete the save, your team’s chances of winning are 100%. Also when you entered the game, there was still a chance you’d blow it and thus the chances of winning are less than 100%. Am I missing something?

    Comment by CluckyB — August 24, 2011 @ 7:35 pm

  12. There are appearances which are neither SDs nor MDs.

    Comment by Torgen — August 24, 2011 @ 7:43 pm

  13. Awesome stat of the day: Kimbrel has accumulated 3.1 WAR so far this year. That’s the most of any Braves pitcher, and behind only Brian McCann (3.7 WAR) for the team lead.

    Comment by kp — August 24, 2011 @ 7:49 pm

  14. +6 WPA or better = Shutdown
    -6 WPA or worse = Meltdown

    If your team’s win expectancy is higher than 94% when you come in, even finishing with a save won’t get you the shutdown.

    Comment by Person — August 24, 2011 @ 8:16 pm

  15. If you follow the link to the earlier article, a shutdown is defined as +.06 WPA, and a meltdown as -.06. So while any save adds to WPA, a top-of-the-ninth, 3 run lead save earns about .04 WPA. Of course you can simply evaluate relievers by total WPA, but the SD/MD stats correlate well with saves and blown saves for closers, while also highlighting good production from non-closers.

    Comment by Lex Logan — August 24, 2011 @ 8:22 pm

  16. The win probability has to be affected by at least 6% to qualify as a SD or a MD (not made clear in this post, but an earlier one spelled it out).

    Comment by Alex — August 24, 2011 @ 8:32 pm

  17. Could we maybe get a Wilson vs Romo comparison on SD/MD?

    Comment by RP — August 24, 2011 @ 9:17 pm

  18. This article fails to mention Clippard who is one of the best relievers in the game right now. ERA 1.54. So, I do not like it!

    Comment by kick me in the GO NATS — August 24, 2011 @ 9:58 pm

  19. sd/md = 5.66666

    Comment by kick me in the GO NATS — August 24, 2011 @ 10:02 pm

  20. Venters is 69/16 or 4.31, so Clippard has been better than Venters!

    Comment by kick me in the GO NATS — August 24, 2011 @ 10:06 pm

  21. so if a closer comes in with a 4 run lead and gives up three runs he would still get a shut down right? because his team would win, thus giving them a 100% chance of winning. meanwhile if a pitcher gave up 3 runs with a 4 run lead in the 8th he would get a meltdown, no?

    Comment by jts5 — August 24, 2011 @ 10:52 pm

  22. Seems like a 3+ WAR season for a reliever is highly unusual. Is it? Anybody bored/ambitious enough to compile a list of 3+ WAR seasons by relievers? If it’s not at all unusual, disregard this comment.

    Comment by Robbie G. — August 25, 2011 @ 12:09 am

  23. I know that Carlos Marmol went for 3.1 in 2010, with 9 other relievers between 2.0 and 2.7 (Brian Wilson, Sean Marshall, Joakim Soria, Heath Bell, Matt Thornton, Matt Belisle, Hong-Chi Kuo, Billy Wagner, John Axford).

    Rivera and Papelbon broke 3 in 2008.

    Betancourt hit 3.2 for the Tribe in 2007.

    2006 was a good year: JJ Putz at 3.6, Papelbon and Saita at 3.2, and Nathan at 3.1, plus BJ Ryan at 2.9.

    Mo had 3.2 in 2005

    But 2004 takes the cake:
    Nathan, Francisco Cordero, Eric Gagne and Tom Gordon all at 3.1; BJ Ryan at 3.4; Brad Lidge at 3.8, and K-Rod at 4.0 (!!)

    In 2003, Smoltz had 3.0, and Eric Gagne had 4.5 (!!!)

    Gagne had 3.3 and Nen had 3.0 in 2002.

    Mo and Dotel broke 3 in 2001.

    Gabe White (?) had 3.3 in 2000

    In 1992, when he won his CYA and MVP, Eckersley was at an even 3.0, edging out Doug Jones, Rod Beck, Duane Ward and Rob Dibble for the lead among relievers. Eck’s WAR was equal to starting pitchers Eric Hanson and Jimmy Key, far down from Clemens’ 8.5, Nagy’s 7.4, Kevin Brown’s 6.6, and even Melido Perez’s 5.9.Those 3 Wins are also on par to Donnie Baseball’s .332 wOBA/108 wRC+ season at 1B for the Yankees. Those crazy sportswriters…

    Comment by Dann M — August 25, 2011 @ 12:32 am

  24. To be fair to League, a decent portion of his MDs have been caused by horrible luck and defensive failures.

    Comment by Jeff — August 25, 2011 @ 3:08 am

  25. Venters is 43-3 for the season and 69-16 career

    Clippard is 34-6 for the year and 71-31 career.

    Venters is better this year. Venters was better last year.

    Comment by Dr. Rockzo — August 25, 2011 @ 4:08 am

  26. No because coming in with a 4 run lead his team has a 96.6% chance to win, which means the pitcher will get a maximum WPA of .034 in the game, while .06 is required for a shutdown.

    Comment by cktai — August 25, 2011 @ 6:32 am

  27. Meanwhile, giving up 3 runs in a 4 run game in the top of the 8th reduces the win probability from .976 to .863 which is a WPA of -.113, which indeed is a meltdown.

    Comment by cktai — August 25, 2011 @ 6:36 am

  28. I pulled up the team stats and calcuated the SD% (SD/(SD+MD)). Unsurprising the Braves were the highest at 75.7%. I was a little surprised that the Giants and Phillie were next. The Rays are second worst at 55.8%, makes me wonder if they’re regretting letting all those guys go from last year.

    Also, Nats duo of Clip and Storen might be third best behind Venters and Kimbrel and Bard and Paps, but the rest of the BP is terrible. The rest of the BP has a SD% below 50% (They’re at 82.9%).

    Comment by MK — August 25, 2011 @ 11:20 am

  29. Can we give some love to Axford and his 65/10 ratio over the past 2 years. Remember, he did not begin last season as the Brewers closer.

    Comment by Craig — August 25, 2011 @ 11:52 am

  30. Holy crap. I had no idea Gagne topped out at 4.5 WAR. That’s absurd. Like, asterisk it for roids or whatever, but still, 4.5 out of the pen is crazy.

    Comment by Scott — August 25, 2011 @ 1:11 pm

  31. John Axford might become the second reliever this season to have 43 SD with less than 5 MD.

    Comment by Wolverine — August 25, 2011 @ 1:44 pm

  32. oh, thank you

    Comment by jts5 — August 25, 2011 @ 3:05 pm

  33. Vinnie Pestano couldn’t even make it as a footnote?

    Comment by Kevin — August 25, 2011 @ 7:25 pm

  34. Any love for Romo? I don’t know his SD/MD stats off the top of my head, but they have to be amazing, he’s having 1 of the best seasons for a reliever EVER. Sure, his recent injury means he’s had a few less chances as of late, but he’s still been amazing. 13.25 K/BB, are you kidding me???

    Comment by CK — August 27, 2011 @ 11:23 pm

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