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  1. You mistake Wainwright for Carpenter twice. Who’s the moran now?

    Comment by Moran — August 26, 2011 @ 1:52 pm

  2. If you’re paying attention, you’d know the Cardinals will probably restructure Carpenter’s option into a cheaper AAV for two years.

    Not sure how “everything” would have to go right for Wainwright to replicate a 4-win season. With Wainwright’s recovery progress, I wouldn’t expect any drop off caused by the injury at least.

    Comment by Andrew — August 26, 2011 @ 1:57 pm

  3. Hmm… I didn’t mean it to sound like an unrealistic expectation. Maybe I’ll reword it.

    Comment by Matt Klaassen — August 26, 2011 @ 1:59 pm

  4. At what age do you normally start knocking off 0.5 wins for a guy? 30?

    Comment by Anthony — August 26, 2011 @ 2:03 pm

  5. I assume you mean Wainwright and pulled a Klaassen? How would that conversation go?

    Mozeliak: Well Adam, we gave you a two year option. Who wouldn’t want to be a Cardinal for life? We’re thinking of not picking up the option unless you agree to lower the value of it. So, why don’t you do that and show the best fans in baseball your commitment to them?
    Wainwright’s agent: Adam has been a pretty huge badass over the last two years. You sure you want to let him hit FA?
    Mozeliak: Well, he might not be able to play for the best fans in baseball. And he has been hurt all year. And we need to sign Pujols too. And Tony is a little worried about his want to.
    Wainwright’s Agent: We aren’t restructuring. Good luck. ::click::

    Comment by AJ — August 26, 2011 @ 2:08 pm

  6. Generally 28 at the very latest. Personally, I would start at 27 for hitters and earlier than that for pitchers.

    Comment by Matt Klaassen — August 26, 2011 @ 2:37 pm

  7. I think I’m still the moran, since I’ve read through it a couple more times and can’t find what you’re talking about.

    Comment by Matt Klaassen — August 26, 2011 @ 2:38 pm

  8. “Marcel projected Carpenter…” and “…seeing Carpenter as a 4.8 WAR pitcher” in the third paragraph.

    Comment by Jay Trickett — August 26, 2011 @ 2:47 pm

  9. Does it vary much based on a guys particular skill set? ie. speed vs. power guys?

    Comment by Anthony — August 26, 2011 @ 3:36 pm

  10. [Gotta love the Cardinals fans seeing him putting up a career-high seven wins in 2011. I can just see the Best Fans in Baseball filling out their projections, peering at their laptop, thinking about all the morans who don’t know how to project players.]

    Gimme a break.

    Are we talking about projections for Carpenter or Wainwright?

    Cardinal fans projected 7 WAR for AW50, who put up 5.7 in ’09 and 6.1 in ’10? That’s optimistic for certain, but not ridicule worthy.

    Rather than just throwing numbers out or picking a number in the middle, why not research 5-6 WAR SP’s who have had TJ surgery and see how they generally did after the surgery? Granted it’ll take more time than making bad jokes, but it would be more useful and interesting.

    The Cards have some tough financial decisions to make, but AW’s 2 years of team options is the easy one … regardless of what other contracts are up.

    Comment by CircleChange11 — August 26, 2011 @ 4:46 pm

  11. who is this article about, carpenter or wainwright? if it’s about wainwright, why would there be unprefaced discussion of carpenter?

    Comment by jim — August 26, 2011 @ 5:22 pm

  12. Sometimes it’s aboput Wainwright, sometimes it’s about Carpenter. I assume the seven win projection bit was really about Wainwright.

    The really mistifying bit is why it hasn’t been editted/corrected for readability.

    Comment by The Real Neal — August 26, 2011 @ 6:29 pm

  13. Pretty big hatchet job on the Cardinals and their fans. Thought this site was supposed to be about baseball analysis. You sound a wee bit bitter. Are you a Brewers, Reds or Cubs fan Matt? Pathetic writing regardless.

    Comment by Nick C — August 26, 2011 @ 10:22 pm

  14. Seconded.

    Also, I’d like to point out that the Team Fans and Other Fans sections had pretty much the same rate stats for Carpenter; the big difference is Team Fans projecting him to have about 70 more innings.

    Comment by gnomez — August 26, 2011 @ 11:09 pm

  15. Unnecessary and unprofessional fanbase bashing. Very disappointing.

    Comment by Todd — August 26, 2011 @ 11:17 pm

  16. And it involved a sample size of 8 for the Wainwright fan projection….

    Comment by CardinalRules — August 26, 2011 @ 11:47 pm

  17. So, you pick a totally arbitrary midpoint of 2 WAR based on the fact that Liriano hasn’t been that good. Why don’t you look at a larger sample of pitchers coming back from TJ?

    This website is losing everything that was once good about it. It’s quantitative still, but in a totally mindless way. There’s no difference between this article and one that says that Wainwright is likely to be OK next year. Both are baseless, this one just tags a number to the baseless estimation. It’s not better than ESPN.

    I really hope it’s not true, but I think that Fangraphs has jumped the shark.

    Comment by Ryan — August 27, 2011 @ 2:47 am

  18. Here’s the twist. Adam Wainwright is Chris Carpenter.

    Directed by David Fincher.

    Comment by Evan Bruschini — August 27, 2011 @ 10:23 am

  19. Finkle is Einhorn.

    Comment by CircleChange11 — August 27, 2011 @ 12:08 pm

  20. Swing and a miss on this one, Fangraphs.

    Comment by TheRedParty — August 27, 2011 @ 12:55 pm

  21. By that standard, shouldn’t there be no ‘all-star’ quality players anymore by 32? After all, even a 6 WAR hitter at 27 is down to 3.5 WAR by then. Just looking at the leaderboards, does this actually hold true? Bautista is 31, pedroia 28, votto 28, granderson 30, victorino 31, a gonzalez 29, holliday 31. were these guys all 9 WAR players once upon a time?
    how about halladay, at 34, shouldn’t he be a 1 WAR pitcher by now (or verlander at 28, CC at 31, weaver at 29, haren at 31, lee at 33 all be on the back side of their careers instead of among the top 10 pitchers in baseball?)
    aren’t the aging curves based on anyone who has been in the league and not specifically on guys who’ve had 10-15 year careers (i don’t know where the right place specifically to draw the line is)? after all, if wainwright was the second best pitcher in the NL for 2 years, isn’t he analogous to a very elite group of players and therefore should be compared to them when guessing how he (or someone else in his category) should age instead of comparing them to the matt murton’s of the world?

    Comment by miffleball — August 27, 2011 @ 11:36 pm

  22. Not a good job writing on this one.

    Sorry, I expected more of a proper insight here.

    Comment by Jeff L — August 28, 2011 @ 5:03 am

  23. Great question miffleball.

    I’d be interested in that answer too.

    I wonder if a lot of the studies regarding aging curves were further back than 20-30 years ago.

    I ask because NOW baseball players value strength training and conditioning, and the surgery and recovery available is amazing, while the workload is stable/decreasing.

    In short, I’m wondering if the genetically gifted will be able to sustain performance longer than the days of Willie Mays and Joe Morgan.

    Comment by CircleChange11 — August 28, 2011 @ 2:42 pm

  24. This spam is more informative than the article.

    Comment by CardinalRules — August 29, 2011 @ 6:27 am

  25. lol at the butt hurt Cards fans bitching and moaning about a little cheap shot, get over yourselves

    Comment by yungmuneyholla wat it dew — August 29, 2011 @ 1:48 pm

  26. *Woosh*

    The bitching and moaning is due to the lack of research, the ridiculous comparisons, and well … the bloggish reference to the “Morans” picture, while the author gets the pitcher’s name wrong in the article.

    The author misses the point that StL has gotten such surplus value from Wainwright, Pujols, Berkman, Carpenter, and the 3 minimum wage players that combined for 7 WAR in 2011, that the FA pay increases and arbitration awards are going to make for some tough decisions for StL.

    Yeah, no kidding. But, that’s a good problem to have (versus say, the Cubs problem).

    I understand the distaste for StL many fans have due to LaRussa, the fans thinking players will take a hometown discount for the privvilege and honor to play in front of the best fans in the world in Baseball City, USA, etc. But to compare Wainwright to Liriano to suggest that AW50 for 21M over 2 years is anything but a bargain casts a shadow over the whole article.

    The “morans” stuff is what it is. Like someone calling you a doody-head.

    Comment by CircleChange11 — August 29, 2011 @ 4:08 pm

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