One thing many people fail to recognize with Santana is how much time he has spent at 1B (roughly 400 innings, or 1/3 of his playing time). If my understanding of WAR is correct and positional adjustments are prorated for guys who play multiple positions, this may underscore how value Santana could be producing at the level he is now. I haven’t run the positional adjustments to see what his WAR would be if he had made only a handful of starts at 1B, but I would suspect it would push him well over the 3 WAR barrier to date. Given Matt LaPorta’s terminal case of sucking, I hope the Indians don’t do something crazy like move Santana out from behind the plate permanently.
Betting that Posey is as good as his rookie numbers could just as easily be a a fools errand. Posey’s wOBA numbers by month
May 2010 .510(12 PA)
June 2010 .279
July 2010 .488
Aug 2010 .325
Sept 2010 .343
Mar 2011 .334
Apr 2011 .344
I don’t think he has reached his ceiling by any means, but his numbers last year were certainly inflated by an insane July last year with a .417/.466/.699 line and 7 HR
First of all, are there really people who were ‘worried’ about Carlos Santana? His 2011 line is excellent for a catcher, especially in the current run environment. What the heck were people expecting?
If he had a .300 BABIP, his line would be .264/.368/.474/.842 right now. His BABIP’s in the minors: .310 in rookie ball, .242 in A-ball, .304 in AA, .336 in AAA.
And Santana isn’t in the elite ranks of catcher? His career 124 wRC+ is better than every active catcher except Joe Mauer ($184M) and Mike Napoli (not really a catcher). He’s been better than McCann, V-Mart, Posey, Posada, Avila, Martin, etc.
Dismissed? No. Discounted? Sure. In the high minors, particularly AAA, you can generally take BABIP numbers as fairly ballpark (the LD and GB rates you get for those levels are accurate enough that you can adjust for luck), but anything below AA needs to be taken with a huge grain of salt. In particular, the FSL is notorious for having miserable ball in play data (LD rates in particular are routinely under reported there for no apparent reason).
July is just an arbitrary period of time. If his hot streak had happened from July 15th to August 15th, people wouldn’t be making the judgement that the .488 wOBA is an aberration. If he had put up a .410 wOBA in each July and August, it would make him look more consistent but still be the exact same thing.
Yes. For a sophomore catcher with the upside that he has, I love the fact that this season is considered somewhat of a disappointment. And he’s not even having that bad of a year. He will join the top tier soon enough.
The main worry about Santana is he isn’t a good catcher or 1st baseman. It may just be about learning the position, 1b particularly, but he doesn’t seem to handle pitchers as well as Marson does either.
Even so his future has a lot more hope than worry going on. Fingers crossed, the Indians could use some good fortune.