FanGraphs Baseball


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  1. Sounds more like a post 2005 Livan

    Comment by jesse — September 5, 2011 @ 10:05 am

  2. We’ll be happy to keep him in KC if he stays cheap and fairly effective.

    Comment by Juancho — September 5, 2011 @ 10:43 am

  3. I think a more appropriate title for comparison would have been “Bruce Chen: Better Than Sandy Koufax?”

    Comment by Greg — September 5, 2011 @ 11:39 am

  4. Chen has been pitching since 1998 and has accumulated a little bit over 5 WAR.

    This amuses me.

    Would be cool if he got to 10 WAR, though. Hehe.

    Comment by Jerome S. — September 5, 2011 @ 11:54 am

  5. Of the 352 pitchers to reach 1000 innings since 1980, Bruce Chen has the 6th fewest WAR.

    Comment by DavidCEisen — September 5, 2011 @ 12:23 pm

  6. Now that’s some Sweet Chen Music!

    Comment by TheGrandslamwich — September 5, 2011 @ 12:33 pm

  7. That puts Bruce Chen…below the Mathis Line!!

    Comment by Oscar — September 5, 2011 @ 12:35 pm

  8. Is that FanGraphs or Baseball Reference War?

    Comment by Black_Rose — September 5, 2011 @ 12:35 pm

  9. fWAR

    Comment by DavidCEisen — September 5, 2011 @ 1:10 pm

  10. I don’t think he faces the White Sox enough.

    Comment by MikeS — September 5, 2011 @ 2:39 pm

  11. Umm for the WAR wielding guys. Isnt that somewhat the point of the article. WAR is a more accurate measure for future success(using FIP)/the pitcher’s contribution generally speaking. But of course WAR consistently undervalued Tom Glavine’s prime 10 years of production (not that chen is in his class). WAR works with the overwhelming majority of pitchers, but there are outlier pitchers whose style/repetiore/savvy allow them to consistently pitch beyond their WAR (FIP) expectations. A UNIQUE player as was discussed earlier. Its only been 2 of the last 4 years for chen so hardly enough to suggest he is an outlier, but if he does this for 2 out of the next 3 years as well….

    Comment by gimpcom — September 5, 2011 @ 3:01 pm

  12. Why not focus on Ted Lilly, another soft-tossing lefty?

    He seems to be a better pitcher than Chen, since he has more strikeouts, fewer walks, and a similar HR/9 rate. Ted Lilly has a slightly lower GB rate (Chen 35.6% career, Lilly 33.9%) and similar BABIP (which I associate with his skills not luck, Lilly career .271, Chen .280.)

    I don’t know, but Chen might have a better injury history and might have more longevity.

    Comment by Black_Rose — September 5, 2011 @ 3:34 pm

  13. Bruce Chen is definitely way better than Koufax, currently.

    Comment by Bip — September 5, 2011 @ 10:20 pm

  14. WAR is not a measure of future success, which is why it uses FIP instead of xFIP.

    Comment by Bip — September 5, 2011 @ 10:21 pm

  15. “Why not focus on Ted Lilly, another soft-tossing lefty? ”

    because ted lilly didn’t come out and say he wants to be the next jamie moyer, while chen did.

    Comment by jim — September 5, 2011 @ 11:00 pm

  16. Bruce Chen is a league average pitcher (brWAR) for $2M/y.

    I bring this up each time people wonder why teams continue to give Chen money.

    We all know about pitcher wins, but I find it interesting that over the last 2 years, Chen is 22-13 on a team that has been 126-178.

    Can he keep it up? Who knows? Back-to-Back league average seasons. 2 brWAR seems to be about his ceiling at this point, and my guess is that the Royals will eventually think they have 5 guys that can do better than that as Chen probably loses some value as he ages.

    There is *something* to a pitcher being so different than everyone else. It does not benefit batters to slow everything down to be able to hit Chen, but not the other 4 guys in the rotation (and other 7 in the pen).

    Burce Chen is the “changeup” or “breaking ball” in the Royals rotation. I don’t know that a market inefficiency would be lefties that throw in the low/mid 80s, but at this point they’re rare enough to throw the batters off.

    Comment by CircleChange11 — September 6, 2011 @ 2:11 pm

  17. Great concept for an article, Eric. Love it when you guys think outside of the box.

    Comment by Mike G. — September 8, 2011 @ 9:38 pm

  18. Many teams could do worse than bring Chen into their rotation.

    Comment by phils phan 100 — December 29, 2011 @ 8:31 pm

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