FanGraphs Baseball


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  1. He is also 22 years old. Stud.

    Comment by elooie — September 6, 2011 @ 1:40 pm

  2. Well, he’s no Yovani Gallardo.

    Comment by Matt — September 6, 2011 @ 1:41 pm

  3. But he’s not a top 50 trade value guy apparently… ;)

    Comment by Ace — September 6, 2011 @ 1:48 pm

  4. Think his ‘slider’ is more a cutter now?

    Comment by Andrew — September 6, 2011 @ 1:52 pm

  5. You know you are having a good year when your team won the world series, and you still manage to beat FAN projections from your own team.

    Comment by AK707 — September 6, 2011 @ 1:54 pm

  6. Well his projections shouldn’t have mouthed off

    Comment by C.J. — September 6, 2011 @ 1:57 pm

  7. Yeah, and he calls it a cutter too, so yeah.

    Comment by Eno Sarris — September 6, 2011 @ 2:03 pm

  8. I see what you did there.

    Comment by Eno Sarris — September 6, 2011 @ 2:03 pm

  9. I asked about him in the chat today. I was going to pen my own thoughts, but you’ve bested me yet again Mr. Sarris!

    Comment by WiersNRAF — September 6, 2011 @ 2:23 pm

  10. “The changeup has suffered, dropping from 10.3% to 3.2%. It’s a bit surprising, given the fact that his changeup was a better pitch by linear weights pitch types last year (5.2 runs to 0.2 runs above average).”

    It’s almost as if you believe he’s going to look at linear weights and decide using that how he’s going to pitch..

    Comment by KKC — September 6, 2011 @ 2:47 pm

  11. And this article doesn’t even take into account his dominant start last night:

    8.1 IP
    7 H
    2 ER

    This brings his K/9 up to 8.42, his K/BB to 4.05, and his FIP all the way down to 2.70… wow.

    Comment by tynandaly — September 6, 2011 @ 2:49 pm

  12. Judging from my limited interactions with pitching and hitting coaches, there might not be much results-based analysis going on, so you’re right to point that out. On the other hand, they might take a look at it in a slightly different way (changeups led to HRs or outs or Ks this many times, sliders this many times). If the do anything like that, the numbers would probably look better for the changeup last year.

    Comment by Eno Sarris — September 6, 2011 @ 2:49 pm

  13. He has dominated some very good offensive teams (Reds, Tigers, Phillies, Brewers), and I don’t mean to slight him in any way, because he is a great pitcher and ridiculously young, but he has faced a lot of weak-hitting teams.

    Comment by Gabriel — September 6, 2011 @ 2:52 pm

  14. so he’s faced some good teams and some bad teams? I’m not sure what you’re getting at here.

    Comment by teenarcher — September 6, 2011 @ 2:54 pm

  15. 22 year old pitcher putting up these numbers, just incredible. How the hell was he not in the top 50 trade value series?

    Comment by SF 55 for life — September 6, 2011 @ 2:56 pm

  16. Do we need to be concerned that Bumgarner’s Slider% is >31% since throwing a Slider too often is what apparently blew out Brett Anderson’s elbow? Or is Bumgarner really throwing a Cutter and there’s no need for concern?

    Comment by Bob B. — September 6, 2011 @ 3:06 pm

  17. Many more bad teams than good teams. Point: I think he is a very good pitcher who looks even better thanks to his matchups. Nothing groundbreaking, or even unique to Bumgarner.

    Comment by Gabriel — September 6, 2011 @ 3:11 pm

  18. will update the research you’re quoting shortly. and the cutter/slider thing is interesting too. for now, it’s not a prescriptive thing anyway.

    Comment by Eno Sarris — September 6, 2011 @ 3:32 pm

  19. The pitch itself definitely looks like a cutter. 87mph (and not like he’s easy 94 on his 4-seamer), limited downward movement but late lateral break. Righties get tied up all the time on inside, belt-high pitches; they’re not going fishing down and in like a Liriano slider.

    I think the question’s more on arm action, and it looks very similar to his 4-seamer, to me, but I’m no professional scout.

    Too bad the Giants are on the road, I’m sure he would’ve come to Gordon Biersch today and we could’ve asked him!

    Comment by Andrew — September 6, 2011 @ 3:54 pm

  20. He has a legit cutter and a slider.

    He was saying in the post game interview yesterday that last year his slider was more of a slurve and wasn’t a really good pitch until recently.

    Comment by pbjsandwich — September 6, 2011 @ 5:28 pm

  21. If his one horrible start where he gave up nine hits and eight runs in 0.1 innings in Minnesota is removed, he’d have an ERA of 2.98 and a WHIP of around 1.19. When Giants fans complain, it’s not because we’re not grateful for the championship, but rather because we see firsthand just how badly this phenomenal pitching staff is going to waste. We’re currently dead last in all of MLB in runs scored and second only to the Phillies in runs allowed…

    Comment by Jay — September 6, 2011 @ 7:55 pm

  22. Apparently, he doesn’t meet Gabrial’s transcendent talent criteria. He just wanted to let everyone know that, I guess.

    Comment by Peter — September 6, 2011 @ 11:50 pm

  23. He doesn’t have the chance to face the worst lineup in baseball, Gabriel. So there’s that.

    Comment by Reza — September 7, 2011 @ 12:00 am

  24. Bumgarner’s quality of batters faced AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS:


    NL average:


    Raw numbers can be deceptive, obviously, but they’d have to be extra super deceptive to make Bumgarner’s quality of opponents a black mark against him.

    Comment by Bhaakon — September 7, 2011 @ 5:24 am

  25. I’m happy for the kid, but I’m skeptical. How many awful starts are aberrations, and how many constitute a real worry?

    What about this awful start against Houston:
    6.2IP 11H 6ER 1BB 5K

    And this one against Cincy:
    4.0IP 7H 5ER 3B 4K

    And here’s a fun fact about that Minn start – it was at home. Including that start, his home/road splits are nearly identical, in almost identical IP.

    I do not trust his stuff, I think he’s a major regression candidate simply because if he’s this good, he’s better than Lincecum and Cain, which I find very difficult to believe.

    Comment by dupontd — September 7, 2011 @ 9:39 am

  26. 21 years old with a world series ring.won last 4 games going to get the big bucks,not bad for a small town country boy

    Comment by moe fox — September 14, 2011 @ 11:26 am

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