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  1. For O’s fans at least, Wieters disappointment offensively has been partially counterbalanced by his surprisingly excellent defense. Teams don’t run on the Orioles anymore. And God knows it’s not for lack of baserunners.

    Comment by Brandon — September 16, 2011 @ 4:16 pm

  2. The other thing worth mentioning, is that while his BABIP for this season is actually below his career number, his line-drive percentage over the season is higher.

    Comment by Bonzi — September 16, 2011 @ 4:25 pm

  3. Thank you for once again haunting M’s fans with the memory of Jeff Clement

    Comment by joser — September 16, 2011 @ 4:27 pm

  4. Not sure I buy the conclusion that Matt Wieters hot streak is more relevant that any other player because Wieters had a higher prospect rating a few years back.

    Gordon’s WAR is inflated by defensive stats that seem of whack compared to his ‘brief’ history in the OF and his OPS is inflated by a very high BABIP. He still looks to me like an average OFer having a career year at 27 rather than a guy becoming a star before our eyes.

    Comment by James Bones — September 16, 2011 @ 4:28 pm

  5. Bill Bavasi: the gift that keeps on MAKING ME ANGRY

    Comment by beastwarking — September 16, 2011 @ 4:28 pm

  6. As an O’s fan who gets to watch the awesomeness that is Wieters behind the plate, it will be a near-travesty if he does not win the Gold Glove.

    BTW, traditional catcher fielding stats (CS%, E, PB, WP) back this up pretty thoroughly.

    Comment by Hmm — September 16, 2011 @ 4:30 pm

  7. Yeah, but is he popular among coaches in the league?

    Comment by Yirmiyahu — September 16, 2011 @ 4:36 pm

  8. You don’t have to buy the conclusion, but it’s certainly a possibility. Pedigree does mean something, even though it doesn’t always lead to the projected expectation.

    Comment by baty — September 16, 2011 @ 4:37 pm

  9. Should PECOTA ever be allowed to do projections again after that Weiters’s rookie season gaffe? I jest, but come on.

    Comment by DHolc — September 16, 2011 @ 4:42 pm

  10. Is he grizzled enough yet? Because he sure as hell isn’t a proven winner yet.

    I think we know where this is going.

    Comment by nosferatu — September 16, 2011 @ 4:58 pm

  11. He’s the catcher I would take if I was building a team for the next seven years. He’s done everything well this year and his on base abililties should improve as he enters his prime.

    Comment by Brian S. — September 16, 2011 @ 5:01 pm

  12. Does anyone else get confused when Carson writes a “real” article?

    Comment by Bob Loblaw — September 16, 2011 @ 5:25 pm

  13. Hasn’t wieters done something like this the past 2 septembers??? without looking at his split stats, id guess he’s a career .315/.400/.500 hitter in september for his career, i’d have to say its his best month without a doubt.

    dont over estimate the effect of the expanded rosters, fatigue, etc… he’s always gotten better this time of year its dangerous to expect him to take a huge step forward next season (i expect a step forward just because he’s getting closer to his physical peak and he’ll have another season of pitch recognition under his belt [which i believe players just get better at the more they play {unless they are a complete headcase}] i think we should split the difference between his last 200 PA and his previous 1300 PA

    Comment by Pat G — September 16, 2011 @ 6:17 pm

  14. Yeah, I’m still wondering if Wieters’ NERD score is greater than Avogadro’s number.

    Comment by jwb — September 16, 2011 @ 6:21 pm

  15. Over 265 September PA he has hit 291/347/473, so it looks like there may be some truth to that. And he has actually has had a cold September this year, the hot streak came in August.

    Comment by Danmay — September 16, 2011 @ 6:35 pm

  16. Can we just agree that the Gold Glove has about as much value as the awards Beevis’s Baseball Blog hands out every year?

    Comment by Jerome S — September 16, 2011 @ 6:49 pm

  17. obviously it’s quite possible that wieters is becoming a star or something close to it, but this post just reads like a very long winded attempt to ignore a small sample size because of a player’s minor league and college stats.

    so, wieters has shown in lower levels that he’s a great hitter, but his major league numbers have shown him to be slightly below average at the plate. now we have 300 PA (in september) or so that say, no, maybe he’s a superstar. the reading to me is that we still don’t know what we have with this guy.

    Comment by j_ordan — September 16, 2011 @ 6:56 pm

  18. Of course you end up becoming yourself…

    Comment by Pitnick — September 16, 2011 @ 8:25 pm

  19. Umm, regarding Alex Gordon’s ‘WAR inflation by defensive stats”, he’s been 5 runs above average per UZR and has 6 WAR, so even if you call him 5 runs below average defender he’s still been a very valuable player. That’s also ignoring the fact that most advanced metrics have rated him average to above average in the outfield since he was moved there. His BAPIP spiked and this might be a peak, but he had excellent college/minor league numbers and this is the first season he’s had to establish himself and hasn’t been injured.

    As for Wieters hot streak, time will tell. Bautista had a 1 month hot streak at the end of 2009 that turned out to portend things to come. And scouting/minor league numbers/prosepect ranking is certainly relevant.

    Comment by Matt — September 16, 2011 @ 8:39 pm

  20. You’re right…we should only talk about future events with 100% certainty.

    Comment by Larry R. — September 16, 2011 @ 9:20 pm

  21. First paragraph mostly just points out how PECOTA is laughable.

    Comment by Garrett — September 16, 2011 @ 10:27 pm

  22. Cole Hamels was the original sporting version of Chuck Norris.

    Comment by Jay Gloab — September 16, 2011 @ 10:42 pm

  23. Look at the L/R splits. It looks like he’s getting comfortable vs.lefties, or just facing some shitty left handed pitchers. Regardless, I believe he puts it together for a breakout next season in 2012 and this is a preview to a very good if not excellent career.

    Comment by latham187 — September 16, 2011 @ 10:52 pm

  24. again i never said he wouldnt be valuable, he’s turned himself to an excellent defender if you trust one year of defensive data (which i assume for catchers is a bit stronger because its less based on range than CS% and PB%,) . Let’s say he saves a run or two on average a season, all he would have to do is hit .270/.330/.430 to have a very good career as a catcher (see Varitek, Jason). A positive defensive catcher with those numbers could see 40 WAR in a career long enough. But let’s not assume he comes close to the 6 WAR player that august and september suggest he should. but his initial projections were a bit over optimistic considering the position he plays. I’ll be the first to admit i wasnt as rosie as pecota but i thought he could easily come out in his first two years at near a .290/360/.480 clip. he could carry this hitting into next season, i just wouldnt bet on it.

    Comment by Pat G — September 16, 2011 @ 11:47 pm

  25. 0/4 tonight.

    Matt Wieters continuing to become Matt Wieters.

    Comment by everdiso — September 17, 2011 @ 12:32 am

  26. Blastings!

    Comment by BlackOps — September 17, 2011 @ 6:01 am

  27. his triple slash line of .231/.283/.363 vs. RHP this season doesn’t inspire confidence in me. His season is buoyed by an impressive line against LHP, which he couldn’t hit in his first two seasons.

    I would not be surprised to see him continue to be an average offensive contributor with great defensive skills, which is fine and all, but not the star we expected to see.

    Comment by Splits — September 17, 2011 @ 1:48 pm

  28. That’s the most “existential” off-hand comment I’ve heard in years. Deep…

    Comment by Niched — September 17, 2011 @ 5:47 pm

  29. I think Wieters figures it out and becomes a very good hitter. It’s not that I see it in his stats. I just see it in his face and his body motion. He looks more and more confident and mature at the plate. I think his struggles the first two years were partly emotional. There was way too much pressure on this very nice, shy kid from South Carolina to save a storied, now terrible baseball franchise and return it to glory. Had Wieters been drafted by the Yankees or the Red Sox or even the Rangers or Dodgers, there would have been far less pressure on him due to their much stronger minor league systems in addition to their not always needing to rely so heavily on the newest prospects for offensive production. O’s fans understandably and unrealistically put too much faith on Wieters being great out of the gated. But it’s not like Wieters had Granderson and Teixeira batting in front of him and A-Rod behind him his first two years in the league. Not to say he will be the next Piazza with the bat, but hitters frequently need a few years (or more) in the majors to find their stroke. Bautista, Ortiz, Gordon, Cuddyer, Werth, Ludwick, Nelson Cruz and many others (two of those guys were former Orioles, yeesh), etc, etc., and Wieters is younger by a year or two or more than the ages when all of those guys broke out. And, of course, he plays a much more difficult position.

    Comment by Niched — September 17, 2011 @ 6:13 pm

  30. I think it was Ichiro who once said, it takes three years for a player to be a “true” major leaguer. One year, to get the players feet wet. A second year, to understand all that is needed to do to prepare for the long season and every individual game. And a third year to grow into your own abilities.
    I liked the thought it takes time. And many players need that time to become whatever it is their true talent level is. We see too often SSS ruling fan and media opinion.
    Baseball is a game of failure, we all know this. Yet we demand perfection from the start.

    Very few can come up and be Dustin Ackley.

    Comment by Mark — September 18, 2011 @ 4:23 am

  31. I really hope to read an article like this a year from now about Gordon Beckham.

    Comment by Patrick — September 18, 2011 @ 6:44 pm

  32. The offensive explosion of Alex Avila might cost Wieters the Gold Glove, while ridiculous it has happened plenty of times recently

    Comment by Sox2727 — September 18, 2011 @ 7:23 pm

  33. Put in an Avogadro and you get some guaca-MOLE.

    Comment by Bryz — September 18, 2011 @ 8:01 pm

  34. Selective endpoints are awesome.

    Comment by RC — September 19, 2011 @ 10:15 am

  35. and everyone who projected adam dunn to hit over .200 this year should just quit. i jest, but come on.

    Comment by juan pierre's mustache — September 19, 2011 @ 11:31 am

  36. Matt Wieters 2012 projection: he’ll play some catcher, probably.

    Comment by juan pierre's mustache — September 19, 2011 @ 11:32 am

  37. it would be more accurate to say that it points out how PECOTA does not always do a good job translating superlative minor league numbers at A and AA into accurate rookie year major league lines. personally, i did laugh! but not because of the article, my cat is just being silly

    Comment by juan pierre's mustache — September 19, 2011 @ 11:35 am

  38. did you know that from sept 18 2011 to sept 18 2011, adam dunn hit .400 with all of his hits off of lefty pitchers? looks like hes back

    Comment by juan pierre's mustache — September 19, 2011 @ 11:38 am

  39. For every Jose Bautista, how many end of the year hot streaks have NOT tranformed the player for the rest of their career?

    Odds are in favor of the not.

    We could say, given the diversity of baseball history, that anything “is possible”, in that regard.

    The article is what it is, and given the sample size, it’s pretty much entertainment purposes only.

    In regards to projecting how good Matt Weiters was supposed to be … when was the last time/era/period that a catcher was the best hitter in baseball (not Joe Mauer for a single season).

    this was the first time that PECOTA had looked at a prospect and predicted an MVP-caliber, Hall of Fame-level season right off the bat.

    Isn’t it all just bad luck? Darnit.

    Comment by CircleChange11 — September 19, 2011 @ 3:33 pm

  40. Nice.

    Comment by CircleChange11 — September 19, 2011 @ 3:34 pm

  41. Cold september? He’s OPS-ing 917 for the month.

    Comment by O'sFan21 — September 20, 2011 @ 11:43 pm

  42. Don’t worry, the media will find a way to give Jeter the Gold Glove at catcher.

    Comment by Dave — September 28, 2011 @ 9:31 am

  43. For a catcher, he’s definitely an above average hitter. How many players can say that they’ve hit 10 home runs this year from each side of the plate? And his defense is second to none. I’ll take those numbers from a Gold Glove catcher any day of the week. Plus, a 4.1 WAR is pretty good for a bust isn’t it?

    Comment by Dave — September 28, 2011 @ 9:36 am

  44. What’s most shocking is he has 10 homers from each side of the plate. At the beginning of the year, if you would’ve told me Wieters would have 22 homers this year, I would have guessed the ratio would be about 16 (against lefties) to 6 (against righties).

    And considering he’s in the same division as Price, Lester, and Sabathia, I’d say he’s getting comfortable vs. lefties.

    Comment by Dave — September 28, 2011 @ 9:41 am

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