FanGraphs Baseball


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  1. Noting Jacoby Ellsbury’s ISO increase from 2009 (ignoring 2010) is a worthwhile addition.

    Comment by Rob — September 9, 2011 @ 11:30 am

  2. I would have loved to see Ellsbury in here

    Comment by Jimenez — September 9, 2011 @ 11:47 am

  3. Was Kinsler’s 2010 really a ‘disaster?’ Power/injury-wise sure, but dude had a .382 OBP (albeit aided by a .313 BABIP compared to .281 career).

    I thought his 2010 represented a big change in his profile, to a BB machine with limited power (say, Barton 2010), vs. a big power/merely decent BB% guy in prior seasons (his ’08 looks a lot like Ellsbury 2011).

    Now he’s got his power back, while sustaining his 2010 walk rate (~12% with a 20.5% O-Swing this yr), and is just missing the average. We may never see his ’08 again (.334 BABIP), but instead can we see a season where he puts all his skills together without the help of an overly generous BABIP, for .285/.385/.495 (Pedroia with more power)? That’s an MVP candidate obviously.

    Comment by Andrew — September 9, 2011 @ 11:52 am

  4. Your Kinsler numbers don’t add up. You have 212 in the table at the top and 232 in the table in the bottom and neither is better than 2009’s 235.

    Comment by Adam — September 9, 2011 @ 11:52 am

  5. I would prefer to see a player’s current year ISO compared to their career average, rather than to the previous season.

    Comment by CircleChange11 — September 9, 2011 @ 11:54 am

  6. Pablo Sandoval also deserves to make the risers list with a .068 jump from .140 to .208. The data probably got compiled a few days ago because he just crossed the 400 PA mark on Tuesday night.

    Comment by Brett — September 9, 2011 @ 11:55 am

  7. I was going to say the same thing. Kinsler keeps “adding to his game”, and IMO it’s just a matter of time before he puts it all otgether and combines it with some BABIP luck/fluke and has a monster season, something along the lines of 8+ WAR.

    Comment by CircleChange11 — September 9, 2011 @ 11:56 am

  8. Yeah, this leads to things like Miguel Cabrera being on here because he had a huge, unsustainable SLG last year, and he’s slightly improved his BA this year.

    Similar thing for V-Mart, his BA is up by 24 points over last year.

    Comment by buddy — September 9, 2011 @ 11:59 am

  9. “It should have been expected to see the 32 year old’s home run total drop since the 2010 HR park factor for Philadelphia was 120 and it is 100 for Washington (a 20% drop). He averaged 29 HRs over the last 3 seasons in Philly. Taking into account park factors, he should have been near 23 home runs for 2011. His 18 so far isn’t that far off.”

    – He only plays half his games at home so the decline would be 10% or near 26 HRs.

    Comment by Someanalyst — September 9, 2011 @ 12:14 pm

  10. Right, as crazy as it sounds, I’d say .285/.385/495 could actually be conservative if his BABIP not only returns to decency, but pulls a James Shields and over-corrects itself from his .232 this year. If his secondary skills are real (why wouldn’t they be?), .315/.405/.535 with his defense and baserunning? Makes me blush.

    Comment by Andrew — September 9, 2011 @ 12:18 pm

  11. Obligatory annoying technical note: you’re not looking at the “highest and lowest ISO increases this season” but the highest ISO increases and decreases this season.

    The “lowest ISO increases” would be players whose ISO is unchanged from last year.

    Comment by Evan — September 9, 2011 @ 12:31 pm

  12. Is there anybody who read the headline and didn’t imemdiately know that Adam Dunn would be at the bottom the list?

    Comment by MikeS — September 9, 2011 @ 12:58 pm

  13. Here’s Ellsbury’s last 4 years:

    Year ISO
    2008 .114
    2009 .114
    2010 .051 (only played in like 18 games)
    2011 .216

    Comment by novaether — September 9, 2011 @ 1:03 pm

  14. Hence the name “isolated” power

    Comment by Isolationist — September 9, 2011 @ 1:15 pm

  15. I didn’t expect his drop to be almost twice that of Huff’s. Huff had a great season followed by a terrible season. For Dunn’s drop in ISO to dwarf Huff’s is difficult to comprehend.

    Comment by Matt — September 9, 2011 @ 2:25 pm

  16. Until Kinsler can break a .720 ops on the road I can’t buy the chance he’ll have a monster year any time soon. Kinsler is the guy most consistently dependent on his home park I can remember.

    Comment by Seels — September 9, 2011 @ 3:24 pm

  17. Sorry, I had been sitting on since Tuesday. I ran the data then. I will look at him later.

    Comment by Jeff Zimmerman — September 9, 2011 @ 4:34 pm

  18. I did a only HR piece a while back for the Roto side:

    Comment by Jeff Zimmerman — September 9, 2011 @ 4:35 pm

  19. But your piece completely ignores the most obvious factor : A completely changed swing.

    Comment by RC — September 9, 2011 @ 5:08 pm

  20. Isolated power is still BABIP dependant though, because BABIP luck doesn’t turn into all singles.

    You take the same player, he’s going to have a higher ISO with a .400 BABIP than he is with a .200 BABIP

    Comment by RC — September 9, 2011 @ 5:10 pm

  21. this

    Comment by nitro2831 — September 9, 2011 @ 8:58 pm

  22. You forgot about me (‘~’)

    Comment by Carlos Gonzalez — September 10, 2011 @ 5:49 am

  23. Or Me

    Comment by 2010 Jayson Werth — September 10, 2011 @ 5:50 am

  24. But that’s actually reason for optimism. This year his BABIP is below .200 on the road. For his career it’s under .250. This year the ISOP is roughly equal home/road, so all of the difference in his OPS is from batting average. It’s true that in the past there was a wide variation in the power numbers.

    But in addition to evening up the power numbers home/road this year, we’ve seen the SO rate decrease vs. 2009’s big power. His swinging strike rate is 3%! It’s known that Ian likes to make a lot of adjustments. If he ever decides to go with a consistent through the middle approach, that road BA will improve dramatically, and you’re talking Jose Bautista-lite – at 2B. That’s worth a few bucks.

    Comment by Paul — September 10, 2011 @ 11:37 am

  25. I so called Kinsler this year to be awesome, was universally panned for my love of him

    Comment by Jeffrey Gross — September 10, 2011 @ 2:57 pm

  26. If what you say is true, you can’t answer this question: which number is higher, -4 or -2?

    Comment by Barkey Walker — September 11, 2011 @ 2:27 pm

  27. Awesome is when you can have a top 10 drop in iso and still be an all-star.

    Comment by Barkey Walker — September 11, 2011 @ 2:30 pm

  28. Miguel Cabrera has a “slightly improved BA” as in 0.001. Yep, that is a huge factor in this.

    Comment by Barkey Walker — September 11, 2011 @ 2:37 pm

  29. Among guys on the increaser list, I would bet on Upton as the one most likely to be close to this years level going forward the never several years.

    Comment by shoewizard — September 11, 2011 @ 3:41 pm

  30. ISO is treated in this article and others as if it was a stable power metric, not subject to the whims of BABIP. In reality, it’s pretty significantly correlated to batting average. It’s not like singles only randomly fall in, but doubles and triples are all power skill. As an example, if a guy has a .250 BA and a .400 SLG, his ISO is .150. Let’s say the next season, due solely to random variance, he hits .300. In order for his ISO to appear to be the same (.150), every single one of his additional hits would have to be a single.

    The bottom line that if you want to measure raw power as a skill, it is much more reasonable to look at SLG/AVG than SLG-AVG.

    Comment by evo34 — September 11, 2011 @ 10:17 pm

  31. var(iso) = var(slg – avg)
    =var(slg) + var(avg) – 2 * cov(slg,avg)

    The fact that they are correlated actually reduces the variance of iso, as you can see from the third term.

    Comment by Barkey Walker — September 12, 2011 @ 11:20 am

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