Wells has been legitimately terrible this season, but Rios has actually been performing at a league-average pace. That’s still much worse than his expected performance, but I wouldn’t call it “terrible.”
You’re quick to draw the conclusion that since the players are overworked, they’re suffering. While that might be the case, I’d be very surprised if it was the cause of these enormous drop-offs.
Vernon Wells and Alex Rios I have no explanation for. They haven’t shown a drop-off, but it’s possible their continued play could have stifled their recovery into familiar numbers territory.
But what did you really expect from Aaron Hill and Marco Scutaro? Their numbers were ridiculous and way out of line with career stats. Can we really say that Cito Gaston is hurting them that much? While playing every day can’t really be great for them, I’m calling simple regression on this one and moving on.
Whether or not the performance declines are due to overwork, the general premise that Gaston has done a poor job of utilizing his bench and resting his regulars, slump or no slump, seems to hold water.
Instead of signing Rios and Wells to those horrible contracts, imagine if Ricciardi had let them both walk and the Jays had that money and draft picks to play with. Or, alternately, what if Ricciardi had just taken all of it out of the bank in small bills and set it on fire? Would the Jays be any worse of than they are now?
The one thing that I can not understand is how JP lets this happen. I am not calling him a good GM but I mean for christ sakes he did work with Beane. He does not have to agree with everything, but this is the simply ignorant.
It’s no surprise that Cito doesn’t use his bench. He never has. He gave an interview in (I think) 1994 where he said “I don’t like to use the extra guys very much; there’s a reason they’re called extra guys.”
Cito doesn’t think the bench has a purpose beyond injury replacements.
Scutaro is not a good offensive player, so him being down is hardly surprising. I would hardly say that Rios is significantly down, either. His OPS in April was .670 and his OPS in June is .670. May is the outlier so far.
Wells is struggling, but he probably is now a league average player.
Well, we must confess that if we’d been clever, we would have arranged a couple victories over the Red Sox this year, but we didn’t realize you’d be on the case so quickly. Yes, Cito Gaston does in fact also draw a secret paycheck from the Boston Red Sox, good work. John McDonald has 26 at bats in 28 games because he posted an OPS+ of 40 last year. FORTY. He’s also 34, so I think we saw the best of his peak power years.
More, Cito’s been incomprehensible loyal to his bench, to the point where he had been refusing to pull Millar and Bautista (for Overbay and Snider, when he was up) out of the game when the opposing team inserted right-handed relief pitchers.
The bullpen imploded, the bats cooled off and ownership refuses to pay for a legitimate DH. Oh yeah, and every single starter from last year went onto the DL except Burnett, who went to NY. While the team is constructed well enough to be the 5th or 6th best team in baseball, that’s also good enough for just fourth place in the AL East.
What a terrible attempt at ‘analysis’. So you’ve got two guys (Wells and Rios) who everyone knows are overrated playing about as poorly as everyone expected. You’ve got a young up-and-coming guy (Lind) who has played pretty well all season, also to the surprise of no one. Then you’ve got two other veterans (Scutaro and Hill) who played WAY over their career in April and May, and now that they’ve regressed closer to where everyone expected in June we’re supposed to blame the manager for not playing them less?
What are we supposed to think would be happening if Gaston had rested those guys more? That somehow Hill and Scutaro would have continued playing at levels most considered unsustainable anyway, or that Wells and Rios somehow would be less terrible? And Lind would be…. I don’t even know what you were trying to imply there. I don’t see how anyone can argue that the version of the Jays offense we’re seeing right now (you know, bad, like they’ve been the past few years) is not a truer level of performance than the first two months of the year.
This is the kind of stuff that’s supposed to make people think you’re smarter than everyone else? Color me unimpressed.
Cito is a nice pickup for the nostalgia, but his managerial style is a full decade behind what you need for todays game. I appreciate that you like your players to hit themselves out of a slump, but why are you letting wells do it at the #3 slot? Isnt the 3rd slot where you put your best hitter, the one who can get that hit to drive in the 1 and 2? That’s not all; there are just so many flaws in his managing that it was a surprise the Jays even made it this far.
-Insisting on platooning your .900 OPS 1st baseman with a 38 year old washup who is only there for the veteran presence.
-Overusing a promising bullpen arm (Carlson) to the point where he is no longer effective, and then continue to overuse him.
-Allowing the broken BJ Ryan to close games while Lincecum ‘lite’ Jason Frasor and an under-control Brandon League sit on the bench. This team could have 3-4 more wins if the Jays just ate his contract.
-Skipping over Richmond’s starts while Reliever-turned-starter Brian Tallet’s arm is about to fall off. If anyone should be getting extra days rest it should be him, he has already eclipsed his career high in innings and we’re still waiting for the allstar game.
-The aforementioned stubbornness involving the batting order.
Cito Gaston does not know how to use a bullpen, does not understand when a platoon is necessary, and each passing day he looks more and more like a stubborn old man who doesnt know why he’s yelling at the kids across his street. Cito, you’ve done your part, now either get with the times or step aside.
I do wish he would use JMac more often, his defense is still solid as ever despite almost never playing, and he is NOT a horrible hitter if he is used properly. Bunt some singles, slap hit, whatever, just dont try to power the ball, because you simply dont have that ability.
Vernon Wells has only had 2 years with a wOBA+ under 100: 2007 and this year. In 2007 he was playing through a shoulder cyst. The main similarities between his 2007 and 2009 are low BABIP and low HR/BIA. His LD% is lower this year than 2007, but it’s the same as his 2008 LD% when his BABIP and HR/BIA were much better (and more line with his career numbers). Maybe he’s dumb for playing though an injury instead of going on the DL and letting it heal (twice?), but he’s not terrible. Not spectacular, but not terrible.
Overbay could always hit lefties well enough to not warrant a platoon. Maybe he wouldnt have a .900 OPS if he faced them regularly, but .750+ would still be pretty good, too good to warrant a platoon. His splits only look ugly in ’08 and ’09 because of the hand injury and unfamiliarity, respectively. Otherwise, he was pretty good against them.
That’s a pretty unprovable assumption. Anwyays, the problem with the Overbay platoon is Millar, not the platoon. Dopirak’s MLE numbers against LHP would be a .950 OPS. I don’t know why they haven’t at least moved him to AAA.
I don’t buy the argument they’re tired. Look at Hill’s slugging in June vs May – nearly identical, but with a 70 point drop in BA. Rios isn’t much worse in June than he was in April, and Wells has been awful all year. Lind has been DHed like you said so there’s no way in hell he’s tired. Scutaro is still showing some pretty good patience, despite the awful BA. Who really expected the career 270 hitter to have a 300 + BA? Even if he hits 270, he’s still gonna post a 370 OBP and play phenomenal D @ SS which is still pretty impressive.
I don’t buy the complaints about not using McDonald either. Is he supposed to bench his 380-400 OBP SS who plays tremendous defense for his 500 OPS SS? Is he supposed to take Hill out of the game? Their two best players are doing a tremendous job – it would hurt them more to bench them for McDonald.
There are some things I’d complain about that Cito does – not replacing Millar often enough on defense in the later innings with Overbay, being unable to realize Bautista is his best bench bat vs LHP, keeping his SP in too long – but keeping J-Mac on the bench and leaving his best two players in (Hill/Scutaro) isn’t one of them.
DH – Lind
LF – Adams/Bautista
2B – Hill
SS – Scutaro
LF – Lind
DH – Hill
It’s pretty obvious that the first lineup is better offensively and defensively. It’s a pretty significant drop off in production to just say “DH Hill” so that McDonald can play 2B. You trade the 700-750 OPS bat in Bautista/Adams for the 500 OPS bat in McDonald.
His WAR totals over the past 3 years (including this year):
His last good season was in 06, when he was very productive with a 5.8 WAR mark. However, since then he has been a below average player in 07 and 08, and one of the worst players in baseball this year. Injuries or not, it’s hard to make a case for him not being terrible.
Rios was already a better fielder than Wells when Wells signed his extension, so it’s not really news that Wells has to move to a corner. (Maybe it is to Wells.) And in fairness, he missed two non-consecutive months of 2008 with two unrelated injuries, which hurt his ability to accumulate wins.
Is there any tangible evidence to say that giving position time players time off every now and then affects their play for the worse? or is this just something that intuition tells us? im not sure that getting the day game after the night game off really is all its cracked up to be. this may be another one of those old baseball truisms that turns out to not have any evidence based validity.