I noticed in a recent comparison of the prediction engines that Marcel is the best at predicting rookie performance, suggesting minor league comps are just noise for batters, are they better for pitchers?
Obviously Steve thinks so, but I wonder if there is good evidence for that.
Comment by Barkey Walker — September 12, 2011 @ 2:17 pm
I’ve never seen Moore throw in person, but this article certainly convinced me to catch his debut.
Also, aren’t those video game numbers? Especially Lincecum’s ERA?
Comment by TheGrandslamwich — September 12, 2011 @ 2:23 pm
finally a scouting report!!!!! it took awhile but im loving it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
“there’s a good chance he’ll make his first major league start next Wednesday during the Rays-Yanks doubleheader. And next season, there’s absolutely no reason why he shouldn’t start the season in the Rays’ rotation.”
Do you really believe this is the way the Rays think?
When have they ever rushed a rookie pitcher into the rotation, or any minor league talent for that matter?
And by “rush”, i mean promote when they are clearly ready for MLB
That’s a good question…. especially with some of the sample sizes
– The Price data is small sample (I think he had less than 50 innings in AAA spread over 2 years)
– Matt Moore has 52.2IP in AAA (and the K rate is a 2K/9 jump from his 100 innings at double A)
– Lincecum’s data is based off of all of 31 innings in AAA (5 starts)
– Strasburg had 33 innings (6 starts)
Obviously these guys spent so little time in AA because they were tremendous pitchers, but it makes the K rate, BB rate and obviously the ERA a little noisy. Perhaps also looking at the AA rates as well?
I envision them using them just as they used Price.
Put him in situations where he can come in and throw well for short bursts, maybe put him the fire a little bit (or a lot of bit). Then, have him start 2012 in AAA and then join the MLB team during 2012 sometime.
The Rays seemingly like to have their prospects pitch in AAA for a bit more before making MLB a regular thing.
Comment by CircleChange11 — September 12, 2011 @ 6:10 pm
I’d say more like small sample mode.
Comment by Barkey Walker — September 12, 2011 @ 9:29 pm
My impression this year is that a great number of pitching prospects have performed amazingly, while the number of standout seasons by hitters has been far fewer. The balance of prospects seems slanted towards pitchers at the moment.
Comment by gabriel — September 12, 2011 @ 10:21 pm
I appreciate the enthusiasm, but the Phillies rotation is just on another level this season. We’re probably never going to see anything else like it again.
Marcel is a monkey. It doesn’t look at any minor league data. If a player doesn’t have any MLB stats, it assumes league-average everything. If a player has very limited MLB time, it regresses heavily towards league-average everything.
Why do you say “obviously Steve thinks so” ? Marcel isn’t mentioned in the article.
Comment by Yirmiyahu — September 13, 2011 @ 8:26 am
Before that no one thought we’d ever see a pitching rotation like the 70s Orioles. Then there’d never be another 1990s Braves rotation, and now there won’t be another Phillies rotation … well, at least until the next great rotation is assembled.
Comment by CircleChange11 — September 13, 2011 @ 10:03 am
That is the point, if Marcel outperforms all the methods that do use minor league data, then those methods are worse than the monkey.
This tells me that, for batters, major league equivalents are not that useful. I’m asking if it is useful for pitchers.
I can conclude that Steve thinks that you can by reading the text of the article.
Comment by Barkey Walker — September 13, 2011 @ 2:06 pm
What Marcel shows is that almost all players move “toward the mean”.
Comment by CircleChange11 — September 13, 2011 @ 3:20 pm
They also have Alex Colome, Alex Torres, AND Alex Cobb (no relation). I guess you could throw in their first pick in the draft this year, Guerrieri, who was considered by many to be the 3rd to 5th best pitcher in the draft. Now if they could only get some hitters…
My guess is that Shields is the one traded in the off-season, look at his contract next year: jumps from $4 to $7 million, which seams like too much for a Rays team that is under $45 million this season.