FanGraphs Baseball


RSS feed for comments on this post.

  1. Kenley Janses joining them with a ROY win would be cool.

    Comment by Bobby A. — September 26, 2011 @ 9:05 am

  2. errr, Jansen, Kenley Jansen and his 16.1 K/9.

    Comment by Bobby A. — September 26, 2011 @ 9:06 am

  3. Didn’t Bob Gibson sweep the awards all by himself in ’67 or ’68?

    Comment by olethros — September 26, 2011 @ 9:09 am

  4. Well, Jansen has no realistic shot. In terms of sabremetric or counting stats, Kimbrel has been the better reliever this year, and set the rookie record for saves (which I know in itself is not a very telling stat, but a lot of the voters for the ROY put heavy emphasis on that for a reliever to have a shot.) Furthermore, Kimbrel is more than likely not going to emerge victorious, in my opinion, because Freeman has put up impressive counting stats, plus has been very reliable in our postseason push. Maybe a bit of bias because I am a braves fan, but realistice nonetheless.

    And, it terms of pure stuff, Kershaw is the best. I just wonder how long he will keep this up. To me, he could become the LHP version of Halladay.

    Comment by Shawn — September 26, 2011 @ 9:15 am

  5. I don’t think much has been made of the fact that Kershaw and Kemp have a chance to be the only teammates to win triple crowns in the same season.

    Comment by mikey — September 26, 2011 @ 9:19 am

  6. ’68, yes. As well as Koufax and Newcombe in ’63 and ’56 respectively.

    Comment by Cardinals645 — September 26, 2011 @ 9:22 am

  7. Wither Carpenter/Pujols, 2005?

    Comment by Cardinals645 — September 26, 2011 @ 9:25 am

  8. Thanks — just added.

    Comment by Eric Seidman — September 26, 2011 @ 9:32 am

  9. Yeah, I just wasn’t looking for same-person sweeps. It’s more interesting historically to think that two different players from a mediocre team could win both awards.

    Comment by Eric Seidman — September 26, 2011 @ 9:33 am

  10. Winning?? The Dodgers would have lost 100 games without those two, it’s all relative.

    Comment by Hurtlocker — September 26, 2011 @ 10:23 am

  11. I think you mean 1984 Cubs, not the Dodgers…

    Comment by tcnjsteve — September 26, 2011 @ 10:41 am

  12. Bonds/Drabek 1990.

    Comment by Jim — September 26, 2011 @ 10:51 am

  13. Also Vernon Law and Dick Groat for the 1960 Pirates.

    Comment by Charlie Morton's Electric Stuff — September 26, 2011 @ 10:57 am

  14. Well, for once we can finally say that yeah, without these MVP and Cy Young candidates on the team, the Dodgers really would be in jeopardy of having 100 losses (15.1 WAR combined at the moment, 80 wins for LAD).

    Comment by michaelfranko — September 26, 2011 @ 11:15 am

  15. It’s nice to hope that the writers are finally getting with the times, but this season I’ve seen a pullback from statistical analysis, perhaps as a reaction against Felix winning the Cy Young last season?

    Let’s face it, Kemp isn’t even going to be on some writers ballots. Kershaw has a somewhat better chance, but then the Fangraphs vote itself gave the award to Halladay. One writer claimed Bautista was fifth on his ballot for the AL MVP.

    Hopefully we’ll see some sanity on the actual vote.

    Comment by Robert — September 26, 2011 @ 11:26 am

  16. Also missing 1993 Frank Thomas and Jack McDowell for the White Sox.

    Comment by U-God — September 26, 2011 @ 11:54 am

  17. Thanks — added. Apologies for missing that one.

    Comment by Eric Seidman — September 26, 2011 @ 12:07 pm

  18. Don’t forget Vernon Wells and Scott Kazmir.

    Comment by jbardo — September 26, 2011 @ 12:24 pm

  19. It’s been done once before. In 1934, Lou Gehrig and Lefty Gomez both won the triple crown for the Yankees.

    But still, this would be simply amazing. I hope Kemp goes 7 for 11 with 4 walks over the next 3 days!!

    Comment by thalooch — September 26, 2011 @ 12:55 pm

  20. Missing Carl Yastrzemski and Jim Lonborg in 1967.

    Comment by slam — September 26, 2011 @ 1:41 pm

  21. only 3 more starts for Kemp – rained out East Coast game isn’t gonna be played– would be a shame if he finished 39/40 in 161 games.

    Comment by George — September 26, 2011 @ 3:20 pm

  22. Over the next 5 years, which pitcher/hitter duo will be the best?


    or dare I say Harper/Strasburg?

    (yes I left many combos out)

    Comment by Chair — September 26, 2011 @ 3:33 pm

  23. denny mclain, also in 68

    Comment by jim — September 26, 2011 @ 3:34 pm

  24. How would we decide something like this? Which would be the greatest pitcher/hitter duo of all time? Would Bonds/Schmidt count due to the greatness of Bonds? Just add up the WAR? Or does the combo need to be made of two fairly equally great players?

    Comment by Chair — September 26, 2011 @ 3:35 pm


    …nah, i’m just kidding ;)

    Comment by jim — September 26, 2011 @ 3:36 pm

  26. Shout out to Kenley Jansen, who in his last 11 innings has allowed 5 hits, 1 walk, 1 run, and has struck out 27! That’s 40 batters faced, 27 struckout….

    Comment by Chair — September 26, 2011 @ 3:49 pm

  27. Obviously, Jansen won’t win the ROY, but he is a big reason why the Dodgers have been playing .600 baseball the second half of the season along with Kershaw, Kemp and even Loney OPS’ing over 1.000 since August 1.

    A lot of people seem to forget that the Dodgers were 14 under at one point in the season. They have been out of it, but they sure have turned around and with a few moves should be a decent team in 2012…most of these players are still the core of a team that had the best record in the NL two years ago.

    Comment by Andy — September 26, 2011 @ 3:52 pm

  28. 27/33 Outs were strikeouts. HA!

    Comment by Bernard Arnault — September 26, 2011 @ 5:10 pm

  29. Such a big deal is being made about Kershaw lack of opposition (pitching against pads and giants) but Halladay only pitched against teams above .500 7 times the whole year! He has an ERA close to 4 in those games!

    FIP should include pickoffs, because a pitcher can control that. Kershaw does a great job holding runners and leads league with 9 pickoffs! And when he allows less than a baserunner an inning that makes for a very meaningful number! Your beloved WAR is not perfect and it shouldn’t be treated like its the end of the conversation.

    Kershaw should be a lock for Cy Young.

    Comment by dlighty — September 26, 2011 @ 5:23 pm

  30. Interesting Matt Kemp articles this past year …

    [1] Albert Lyu illustrated that Kemp couldn’t hit high fastballs in 2010 (or resist swinging at them).

    [2] Erik manning wrote about Kemp’s Disatrous D.

    [3] Dave Cameron writing that Kemp is due for a big rebound in 2011.

    [4] Matt Kemp trying to win the Triple Crown and MVP.

    Kemp, IMO, is a great example of why single season UZR has to be regressed.

    Matt Kemp UZR (Full Seasons)
    2008: – 2.1
    2009: + 2.9
    2010: – 25.7
    2011: – 4.1

    Comment by CircleChange11 — September 26, 2011 @ 5:38 pm

  31. NL East Runs Scored (WAS, NYM, FLA, ATL) = 2571
    NL West Runs Scored (AZ, COL, SF, SD) =2582

    Can’t discount Kershaw for facing subpar clubs SF and SD, without crediting him for having to face COL and AZ, 2nd & 4th best offenses in NL.

    Comment by dlighty — September 26, 2011 @ 5:38 pm

  32. 22.09 K/9…
    27.00 K/BB…


    Comment by dlighty — September 26, 2011 @ 5:41 pm

  33. Kershaw does a great job holding runners and leads league with 9 pickoffs!

    The actual picking off of runners is secondary to the half step back to first that these pitcher types cause runners to do. The hesitation causes them to both [1] not steal effectively, [2] not get good jumps in regards to DP’s, advancing extra bases on base hits, etc.

    However, even when accounting for this …

    Pitcher Name: fWAR (brWAR) = AvrWAR
    Halladay: 8.2 (7.1) = 7.7
    Kershaw: 6.9 (6.9) = 6.9
    Lee: 6.7 (6.7) = 6.7

    That’s rather solidly, a 1st place CYA vote for Hallday (IMO). If we want to use just brWAR (rWAR) that’s fine with me; that’s my preference. But the conclusion then is basically that it could be a 3-way tie for NL CYA.

    What fWAR is basically saying is that halladay’s fewer walks and less HRA is more important than Kershaw’s extra K’s. It also ignores kershaw’s lower BABIP agianst, which at this point in his career (for Kershaw) is being established as more skill than luck.

    Comment by CircleChange11 — September 26, 2011 @ 5:47 pm

  34. Halladay is a groundball pitcher which typically means higher BABIP. BABIP is a good tool, but the comparability does not work. To see if a pitcher is benefitting more from luck in a given season, only way to do this is compare current season BABIP to career BABIP for that particular player.

    Halladay is career .292 BABIP, with a .298 this year.
    Kershaw has a BABIP of .271 in his 3 full seasons, .269 this year.

    The “luck” element you speak of is part of a pitcher’s pitching style. WAR gives Halladay a disproportionate bonus for his high BABIP, because he is compared to league averages instead of his own averages (which aren’t insignificant when a player has over 2500 IP)…

    Comment by dlighty — September 26, 2011 @ 6:20 pm

  35. Ah, Johan Santa, the forgotten Cy Young winner. Love that guy.

    Comment by joser — September 26, 2011 @ 7:24 pm

  36. Word doesn’t have to prematurely reach the voters of the MVP and Cy Young, the public consensus is enough to ascertain the likely Cy Young winner, while the MVP is likely down to three maybe four players (Braun, Kemp, Fielder, Upton)

    Comment by Rufio Magillicutty — September 26, 2011 @ 9:41 pm

  37. Kemp and Kershaw can also become the first NL team to have a triple crown in both pitching and hitting.

    Comment by Scoops — September 26, 2011 @ 10:06 pm

  38. i find it amazing how people(and most likely the voters) forget the Brewers have Axford, Greinke, Marcum, Gallardo, Weeks, Prince around Braun. NLC parks are all smaller than the NLW and every NLW team has a better ERA than the NLC teams

    i hope voters take that into account, but of course they wont

    Comment by Joey E. — September 27, 2011 @ 2:31 am

  39. “…it’s extremely likely that the Dodgers’ ace wins the award in only his third full season.”

    As I still consider Roy Halladay the favorite to win the Cy Young, “extremely likely” seems like hyperbole.

    This is how it plays out, in my view:

    1) Voters are going to want to be given an overwhelming reason to vote against Roy Halladay in the Cy Young race;
    2) Voters have no such overwhelming reason to vote against Halladay in the Cy Young race;
    3) Voters will not, WILL NOT, give the MVP and the Cy Young to two players on a non-contending team;
    4) Voters will be unable to ignore Matt Kemp’s monster numbers;
    5) Voters have been given no particularly good MVP candidate from a winning team;
    6) Voters will (irrationally) feel somewhat guilty for not voting for Clayton Kershaw for Cy Young and their (perhaps mostly subconscious) remedy will be to vote for Kemp for MVP.

    Therefore, I expect Kemp to win the MVP and Halladay to win the Cy Young.

    Comment by Robbie G. — September 27, 2011 @ 2:37 am

  40. Curtis Granderson looks like the MVP winner in the AL to me. I’m surprised that I have not noticed a single “Would the Tigers be the best team in the AL if they had never traded Curtis Granderson to the Yankees?” article this season. This seems like an extremely obvious thing to write/talk about. My apologies if there have been many such articles this season; I haven’t seen/heard of any.

    Justin Verlander clearly wins the AL Cy Young unanimously.

    Comment by Robbie G. — September 27, 2011 @ 2:43 am

  41. Such a lack of sabermetric sword-rattling (SWIDT?) for Halladay (8.2 WAR vs 6.9 WAR, from this site) will guarantee Kershaw’s win. Sounds like someone just wants to see something unusual happen.

    Comment by SOB in TO — September 27, 2011 @ 12:28 pm

Leave a comment

Line and paragraph breaks automatic, e-mail address never displayed, HTML allowed: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>

Close this window.

0.227 Powered by WordPress