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  1. If Piñeiro’s performance is sustained, Duncan should further solidify his reputation as one of the scant pitching coaches who actually is effective.

    Comment by Basil Ganglia — July 3, 2009 @ 8:23 am

  2. So is Pineiro a descent pickup in fantasy leagues? Sure, he isn’t going to do much for your strikeouts, but sustaining this good ERA makes him at least a good stream option. He seems like a poor mans (what used to be) Derek Lowe.

    Comment by Christian — July 3, 2009 @ 8:47 am

  3. What about year N+2?

    Comment by rwperu34 — July 3, 2009 @ 1:05 pm

  4. I’m also interested in the year N-2 deltas.

    “All of which is to say that if the pitcher can show such improvement in causing groundballs, then the improvement is most likely legitimate rather than a sample size fluke.”

    I don’t think you can draw this conclusion so quickly (not sure if it’s wrong). I think it can only be drawn if we can see a similar mechanical change in those pitchers that Pineiro is echoing.

    Comment by Andy S — July 3, 2009 @ 3:53 pm

  5. It’s also pretty interesting that Jason Marquis’ groundball rate also jumped more than 10% this year (47.6 –> 57.7), and this has arguably his best season since he went 15-7.

    Comment by Nathan S — July 5, 2009 @ 8:17 am

  6. It’s not THAT interesting, I mean, it’s been shown that groundball pitchers are more likely to post low BABIPs than air ball pitchers, thus likely leading to fewer runs scored.

    Comment by Andy S — July 6, 2009 @ 8:39 am

  7. In case you cannot access my linked article, I looked at N+2, N+3, etc, and found that the number of pitchers with historical shifts such as this are few and far between, but the % of those that sustain rates as the years move forward is quite high.

    Comment by Eric Seidman — July 6, 2009 @ 9:52 am

  8. It’s ‘Pineiro’ :)

    Thanks! sfasdf

    Comment by Glenn — July 10, 2009 @ 2:10 pm

  9. Actually, it’s “Piñeiro” :-p

    Comment by Havoc — July 10, 2009 @ 6:31 pm

  10. I think even more than looking at other pitchers who experienced a similar change, it’s important to look at the peripheral statistics of the specific pitcher in question and see if anything is different.

    Which is to say that if the pitcher’s peripherals are in line with career norms, than it’s probably a fluke, regardless of what other pitchers did in the past.

    But on the other hand, if something has changed in the underlying approach of the pitcher in question, then the change in outcomes is much more likely to be sustainable going forward.

    In the specific case of Joel Pinero, as I have just pointed out in a post over at UmpBump, in at least one area something big has obviously changed, in that he is throwing way more fastballs than ever before – 71% this season, versus a well-established previous career norm of 59%.

    Clearly, Pinero has completely changed his whole approach this year, so if his results have also changed, that is very likely to be based on the change in approach, and therefore at least somewhat sustainable, than to be a year-to-year fluke.

    Comment by Nick Kapur — August 15, 2009 @ 2:35 am

  11. Ground ball pitchers post higher BABIP, not lower. Though they do allow less runs (less XBH).

    Comment by acerimusdux — December 3, 2009 @ 1:13 pm

  12. Just revisited this post. One major exclusion (per the 100 inning limit)….was Chris Carpenter in 2004. He came over to the Cardinals from the Blue Jays and posted an increase of 10.6%. The Cardinal magic with pitchers yet again. Not to mention the fact that they helped Carp become one of the most talented pitchers in the majors…after having a career era around 5!

    Comment by Tom — February 9, 2010 @ 7:24 am

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