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  1. Obviously he should have pitched around him. Did you not see the home run?

    Comment by JTripp — October 1, 2011 @ 6:41 pm

  2. Next Fangraphs Post:
    “Should Tony La Russa have let Kyle Lohse pitch to Ryan Howard?”
    By Matt Klaassen

    Comment by Randiforous — October 1, 2011 @ 6:43 pm

  3. No the question should be should Gibson allow his right handed pitcher at 110 pitches pitch to Fielder with a man on 2B. A home run is big, but so would have been a single in that situation. Pitching to Fielder is not a terrible idea, having a tired starter do it is.

    Comment by Rob — October 1, 2011 @ 6:59 pm

  4. Kennedy was at 108 pitches. If Gibson was going to pitch to Fielder, he should have had the lefty do it. If not, why bother warming him up? The lefty for Fielder, then the righty for Weeks if necessary: those were the right moves.

    Comment by chuckb — October 1, 2011 @ 8:10 pm

  5. That’s what I was thinking. I was hearing MGL (co-author of The Book) ringing in my ears about how a fresh average reliever is superior to any tiring starter. Kennedy shouldn’t be pitching to anyone in that situation.

    This is one aspect of statistical analysis where we have to look at the numbers after the decimal point and see them as “more grey”.

    1.11, 1.18, and 1.21 could likely all fall into the “go with your gut” type category.

    When you’re losing by multiple runs late in the game, many times allowing a grand slam isn’t that much different than giving up a single in regards to your chances to win the game. This is one area where I think the data can be misleading. Who cares if you lose 7-2 or 5-2, you still lose. MIL should have been looking at the situation as “What gives us the best chance at getting out of this inning without allowing a run” (while also realizing that it’s not going to be in their favor in any scenario).

    I think you could defend walking Fielder and going after Weeks with the righty. Allowing Fielder another at bat against a tiring starter is a mistake IMO.

    Comment by CircleChange11 — October 1, 2011 @ 8:23 pm

  6. Why was Gibson pitching to Lucroy with a guy on third with 2 out the inning before. The “Gallardo is a good hitter for a pitcher” narrative is nice but the guy has a sub .600 OPS.

    Granted Lucroy got lucky with the bloop hit, but already down a run he should not have been pitched to.

    Comment by joe — October 1, 2011 @ 8:56 pm

  7. Should’ve walked Lucroy earlier and brought in a LOOGY to face Fielder. Kenneday was 100+ pitches, fourth time through the lineup when he faced Fielder.

    Comment by Xeifrank — October 1, 2011 @ 11:17 pm

  8. If you believe that Weeks was not completely healthy, then it may well be that Fielder was more than 1.21 times better

    Comment by IvanGrushenko — October 1, 2011 @ 11:35 pm

  9. Cocaine is a hell of a drug.

    Comment by Slats — October 1, 2011 @ 11:52 pm

  10. Lucroy has a .310 wOBA and is right handed. There were two outs. I don’t know if there’s ever a good time to intentionally walk a guy with a .310 wOBA.

    Comment by Kenley Jansen — October 2, 2011 @ 4:34 am

  11. Fielder’s wOBA vs R
    .429 (2011), .410 (career)
    Weeks’ wOBA vs R


    Walk him

    Comment by filihok — October 2, 2011 @ 7:44 am

  12. pitcher on deck? (who’s not going to be removed)

    If there ever was a good time to intentionally walk someone with a .310 wOBA… perhaps a .255 wOBA on deck was a good time?

    Or you could just go with the good hitter for a pitcher narrative…. that always works… except when you are down one and the narrative seems like it’s good.

    Comment by joe — October 2, 2011 @ 8:03 am

  13. FWIW, the commentators did mention that Braun was on 2nd and that 1b was open.

    Comment by Raf — October 2, 2011 @ 9:26 am

  14. Bottom of the 7th, 2 out, runner on, opposing teams best left handed hitter up, if your not going to use your loogy there, when?

    Comment by jesse — October 2, 2011 @ 9:38 am

  15. What Raf says. The commentators did ‘first-guess’, rather than second-guess pitching to Fielder.

    Comment by Richie — October 2, 2011 @ 10:36 am

  16. The Giants, Dodgers and Phillies are the only teams in the NL to keep Fielder in the park this year. He’s had 5 singles against the Giants.

    Comment by channelclemente — October 2, 2011 @ 1:26 pm

  17. Along with what Raf and Richie said:

    The broadcast I heard said something like “Quite frankly I’m surprised they’re pitching to him. Not a lot of teams would do this.”

    Comment by Bob — October 2, 2011 @ 2:20 pm

  18. You’ll just either K him or walk him, Kenley. If I were you, I’d just throw cutters with the occasional fastball and slider to him, and strike him out 44% of the time.

    Comment by Black_Rose — October 2, 2011 @ 4:45 pm

  19. I think it’s important to take in consideration how Kennedy went about facing Fielder, not the fact that the Diamondbacks chose to pitch to him. What I mean is, the first pitch was a cockshot fastball that made Prince literally smirk. The second pitch was a decent curveball, but it was inside, and it’s pretty safe to safe Fielder is an above average inside pitch hitter.

    Comment by Peter — October 2, 2011 @ 5:43 pm

  20. So reading the last two articles, it’s right to pitch to Fielder, even though he hit a home run, because it’s the probabilities that matter and not the outcome… but it’s wrong for Hamilton to try to bunt for a base hit to a wide open 3B due to a shifted infield because he didn’t succeed?

    Comment by Eric — October 2, 2011 @ 8:14 pm

  21. I think the belief held by the site is that Josh Hamilton is an excellent hitter, but most likely not a good bunter. Guys like Hamilton rarely/never bunt because their expected runs created by swinging away is greater than by bunting, even against an exaggerated shift. If this were not the case, wouldn’t he bunt more often to punish teams for shifting against him?

    Comment by Larry — October 3, 2011 @ 4:47 am

  22. @Larry

    It’s also possible that Hamilton has been working on this.

    I don’t want to state the obvious, ut with Hamilton’s ability it wouldn’t take him very long to learn how to “bunt it to the right of the pitcher”.

    Comment by CircleChange11 — October 3, 2011 @ 7:31 am

  23. Even if Hamilton had gotten a hit, the decision too bunt was a bad one because Hamilton is a very good power hitter and by bunting he loses that advantage. I think this is the point of the Hamilton post.

    Not walking Fielder makes sense because of the increased probability of scoring multiple runs based upon who was hitting behind him.

    Both arguments are ignoring the outcome.

    I agree with the consensus here that they should have brought in their LOOGY. This is the exact situation you pay them for.

    Comment by Bill — October 3, 2011 @ 7:45 am

  24. You would think so. But you would also think Shaq would have learned to make free throws…oh wait he doesn’t have to. AHHH cross sport analogy

    Comment by adohaj — October 3, 2011 @ 11:26 am

  25. It was a stupid decision, not because of the result, because it was stupid.

    Comment by Dave G — October 3, 2011 @ 1:35 pm

  26. “Even if Hamilton had gotten a hit, the decision too bunt was a bad one because Hamilton is a very good power hitter and by bunting he loses that advantage. I think this is the point of the Hamilton post.”

    When down by 8 runs late in the game, power matters very little. On base is almost everything. You need baserunners. If Hamilton hits a home run his team is still down 6 runs. A home run has almost the same WPA as a single at that point in the game. If Hamilton feels he can execute the bunt then it is still a good decision.

    Comment by The Nicker — October 3, 2011 @ 3:54 pm

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