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  1. It must be a salary dump, just like the Jody Gerut for Tony Gwynn Jr. deal was. They can’t even afford to have players making 800K over the minimum like Hairston, I guess.

    Comment by Jack Moore — July 6, 2009 @ 11:05 am

  2. If I’m Adrian Gonzalez, I desperately want a way out of this mess (he’s said in the past he’s happy there, but watching the team get worse can’t be fun). This great city deserves better.

    Comment by lester bangs — July 6, 2009 @ 11:20 am

  3. If the PTBNL is Gallagher, it could look good later. If it’s Eveland, it’s horrible.

    Comment by Derek — July 6, 2009 @ 11:38 am

  4. Why all the gnashing of teeth over a bench player? He’s never held a regular starting job and at 29, probably won’t ever, certainly not by the time when the Padres are ready to compete again.

    He’s having the best season ever for the number of ABs, but if you look at his splits, he only hit great in April (when he got to play SF, who he kills for some reason), but returned to his career suckiness in May and June. Even last year, he was good for two months, bad for the other three. He’s not an average player worth 2-3 wins, he’s a bench player who needs to be played in spots where he can best produce.

    But if he can net the Padres this PTBNL who can be a regular starting pitcher in the majors, then I would call that a net win for them.

    And regarding Correia, he pitched very well for the Giants at the end of the 2007 season, and this season just confirms that level of production. He was injured last year and I don’t think he recovered during the season. Plus, he could become better as his ERA is actually higher at home than on the road this season.

    The problem was that the Giants did not want to risk starting him in the rotation with Sanchez in the back for 2009, as we lost a lot of games back there in 2008, plus Zito wasn’t doing that well and, frankly, we didn’t know when he ever would. So they were nice and let him go because they were looking to upgrade the rotation – and eventually did with Johnson – and thus he would be at best a reliever for us, and even with his success there, he might not even make our bullpen, we have a lot of options, even now, and he wanted to be a starter plus would love to pitch for his hometown Padres. They also had no more options on him either, so it wasn’t like they could send him to AAA if he didn’t make the team for 2009. So the Giants were nice and let him go when he was already marginal for making our team in 2009.

    If he was a strikeout artist, the Giants probably could have traded him for something, but he’s just a nice complementary player that is great for a team like the Padres or an established team that can afford not so great performances out of the back of the rotation because they have a good offense, but not for a team built like the 2009 Giants.

    Comment by obsessivegiantscompulsive — July 6, 2009 @ 11:45 am

  5. Forgot to also mention that this clears up a spot in the OF to play Kyle Blanks and Tony Gwynn more, now that Hairston is out of their hair, as that opens up ABs both in LF and CF. Particularly Gwynn in CF, who has been hitting OK for them.

    Blanks can see more play in LF with Headley either sitting or moving to 3B as Kouz isn’t doing that great this season either. Blanks clearly has nothing to learn in AAA and needs major league experience to see what he can do.

    Yeah, I like this deal for the Padres, all around, and especially if they got a pitcher they really like (which means I hate the deal, because I don’t like the Padres and I hate that the A’s picked up a Giants killer).

    Comment by obsessivegiantscompulsive — July 6, 2009 @ 11:54 am

  6. Gotta agree. They probably sold high on Hairston.

    Coming into the season, Hairston was a .246/.303/.453 career hitter and turning 29.

    22% K rate and a 7% walk rate.

    He DOES have the body type that seems to say he will age well w/r/t power but…

    Blanks now has a position and they got two filler guys with live arms but terrible deliveries. In other words, moderate upside.

    In the end, I think the ultimate judgment lies in the PTBNL.

    Comment by Christo P. Ney — July 6, 2009 @ 12:08 pm

  7. at least bat value looks like hairston seems underrated, add in above avg CF defense too. 2+ season cost controlled hairston or aaron rowand at 10-12mill?

    Centerfielders ranked by OPS+ from 2008-2009 (minimum 500 PA):

    Cnt Player OPS+ PA From To
    1 Carlos Beltran 136 986 2008 2009
    2 Josh Hamilton 129 842 2008 2009
    3 Scott Hairston 128 572 2008 2009
    4 Nate McLouth 123 986 2008 2009
    5 Torii Hunter 121 918 2008 2009
    6 Grady Sizemore 119 1024 2008 2009
    7 Marlon Byrd 118 741 2008 2009
    8 Curtis Granderson 118 989 2008 2009
    9 Cody Ross 114 813 2008 2009
    10 Mike Cameron 113 822 2008 2009
    11 Matt Kemp 113 987 2008 2009
    12 Shane Victorino 109 982 2008 2009
    13 Jody Gerut 106 515 2008 2009
    14 Rick Ankiel 105 685 2008 2009
    15 Vernon Wells 105 827 2008 2009

    Comment by PadsFan — July 6, 2009 @ 12:15 pm

  8. Hairston has played the majority of his career in left, seeing more time in center over the last two seasons mainly because the Padres don’t have a prototypical anything (he’s been good, though).

    As he ages, left field is his spot and that changes the whole dynamic.

    Comment by Christo P. Ney — July 6, 2009 @ 12:31 pm

  9. Dave, I think Hairston’s injury history also has to play some part. Kind of like the Bedard arguments you’ve made over at USSMariner, it makes some sense to trade Hairston before he blows another gasket. And his .345 BABIP isn’t exactly sustainable considering his career BABIP is .298 and he hasn’t really shown any drastic improvements in BB%, K%, or anything else that suggest an improved skill.

    I generally agree with your analysis, I’m a little surprised that the Padres wouldn’t either hold him and hope he continued his current production (or close to it) and look to move him next year. Or at least get a little better return than Webb and Italiano since, as you’ve said, they tend to be one of the best teams at picking arms off the scrap heap and getting positive value for them. That said, if they have injury concerns or just don’t believe his production is sustainable, then now might have been the right time to move him.

    Comment by mymrbig — July 6, 2009 @ 1:08 pm

  10. If nothing else, this season demonstrates that San Diego’s FO values platoon players a little less than a bag of flaming dog poo…

    Comment by Terry — July 6, 2009 @ 1:54 pm

  11. If the “production” Correia, Gaudin and Baek have managed in Padres uniforms counts as “shiny and new,” I’m the Queen of the May. All have below average numbers in the Blue and Sand and two of the three have numbers below their (pretty poor) career numbers as Padres.

    And who says it’s a fait acompli that Italiano is a reliever. Seems to me he’s gonna stay in the rotation for at least another 16 months before they even think about resorting to a move for him.

    Comment by thatotherguy — July 6, 2009 @ 1:59 pm

  12. Italiano is rule 5 eligible this offseason, having yet to play above A ball…dont forget that issue

    Comment by AsFan — July 6, 2009 @ 2:09 pm

  13. Getting rid of a good player to make room for Kyle Blanks doesn’t really make a ton of sense. He obviously hasn’t spent enough time in the bigs for his UZR to matter, but the scouting reports I’ve read (and my impression from watching Blanks a little bit) indicate that the guy is probably a DH or a 1B. Letting him roam the outfield in a huge park could be ugly.

    Comment by Teej — July 6, 2009 @ 2:15 pm

  14. Poor Scott Hairston… this trade reminds me of the ending to Event Horizon.

    Comment by Bill — July 6, 2009 @ 2:30 pm

  15. The Padres offense vs pitching:

    OPS+: 92. NL average 94.
    ERA+: 81. NL average 101.

    Yeah, they clearly don’t need arms, when Gaudin (70 ERA+) and Correia (82) are around, and with the masterful Baek (86 career) on his way back.

    Petco Park makes pitchers look better than they are. It doesn’t actually make them better. The offense needs help. The pitching needs a complete overhaul.

    Wall Street Journal? Really? Don’t they like…numbers….on Wall Street?

    Comment by Tom Waits — July 6, 2009 @ 2:33 pm

  16. Yeah, but the Padres 40 man will have lots of spaces. Good-bye, Wade LeBlanc, Walter Silva, Cesar Ramos, maybe Cesar Carrillo, maybe Josh Geer. Good-bye Henry Blanco, Edgar Gonzalez, and Brian Giles.

    Comment by Tom Waits — July 6, 2009 @ 2:36 pm

  17. @obsessivegiantscompulsive

    So Hairston is a “bench player whos never held down a reg starting job” huh? You arent one of those A’s haters who cant stand seeing Billy Beane pull off outstanding move after outstanding move while your GM trades your franchise for AJ Pierzynski are you?

    To me, Hairston’s story sounds a lot like Jack Cust, another guy who rotted away at AAA for too many years because of some reason or another NOT having to do with baseball skills. Hairston constantly threw up 900+ ops’s at AAA and just never got a shot because zona was too crowded or whatever.

    Hairston is legitimately good and is finally showing it. His SD career ends with 35 HR in 610 ABs…..which if done in 1 year makes him the best hitting CF not named Beltran…..enjoy paying Aaron Rowand way too much for not even coming close to those numbers. Beane wins another trade for a really undervalued piece, Moneyball LIVES!

    Comment by PL — July 6, 2009 @ 2:43 pm

  18. Padres hitting: 92 OPS+
    Padres pitching: 81 ERA+
    The Padres may not have a major league offense, but they certainly don’t have a major league pitching staff either.

    Comment by Ben B. — July 6, 2009 @ 2:49 pm

  19. Jinx! Owe me a Coke!

    Comment by Tom Waits — July 6, 2009 @ 2:52 pm

  20. Scott Hairston even up for Sean Gallagher looks like a good move for the Padres to me, provided that Gallagher’s current knee injury heals properly.

    Gallagher is only 23 this year, has significant major league experience and was pitching extremely well at AAA Sacramento after an unsucessful start at Oakland, before the current injury on June 4, 2009

    Comment by Tom Dubberke — July 6, 2009 @ 2:54 pm

  21. ERA+ may look like a deeply informative stat, but it’s really not. ERA depends on defense and luck, and is therefore a poor measure of a pitcher’s talent level and even performance. You’re better off looking at FIP, xFIP, or this site’s Value stats, and by those measures, Gaudin and Correia are providing league-average performance this year for peanuts.

    Comment by Friendly Neighborhood Language Critic — July 6, 2009 @ 3:08 pm

  22. This is a pretty cherry picked, list, no? Comparing a player with 572 PAs to one with 1024 PAs, in the same time period, is using statistics the way a drunk uses a lamppost – for support, not illumination. Make the arbitrary cutoff 600 PAs and Hairston disappears.

    There’s several reasons Hairston has only batted 572 times in the last year-and-a-half. Mostly because he can’t stay healthy. He has also had a pretty large platoon split throughout his career and sits against tough right-handers.

    His OPS+ is impressive in a small-sample size kind of way, and, as a Padre fan I’ll be a little sorry to see him go. He was free talent and played pretty well when he could make it onto the field. I just don’t think keeping him around was essential to a team that’s going to lose 90 games. On a good team he’s a nice fourth outfielder, a lefty-killer who can spot any of the three positions defensively and won’t kill you if you have to play him for a couple weeks at a time.

    But the Padres have to get some legitimate hitters into that lineup eventually. And the easiest place to do so, since first base is blocked, is in left field.

    Comment by David Coonce — July 6, 2009 @ 3:12 pm

  23. If the PTBNL is Gallagher, then I think this trade works for the Padres. If it’s Eveland, then I’m a little non-plussed.

    As a Padre fan, I really think San Diego needs to just strip down the team completely and start over. These little trades are kind of fiddling while Rome burns. I understand that the Padres have almost no tradeable assets, besides the ones they won’t (Peavy, Gonzalez) or can’t (Young, Kouzmanoff) trade. But this team needs an infusion of offense in the worst possible way. This isn’t like 2007, when the offense looked bad but was actually pretty good away from Petco. This is just a bad, bad offensive team, with nary a hitting prospect within shouting distance of the majors.

    Comment by David Coonce — July 6, 2009 @ 3:19 pm

  24. Are FIP and xFIP park adjusted?

    Comment by don — July 6, 2009 @ 3:22 pm

  25. Scott Hairston, he of the .295 OBP vs RHP against NL pitching is a two win player? I don’t think so. If you could maintain his platoon advantage over a full season he’d be worth two wins, but in reality he can only keep up that pace if over part time play. One win corner OF (like Nyjer Morgan was to the Pirates) grow on trees. Scott Hairston was completely worthless to the Padres, and mostly worthless to other teams. Granted, so are Webb and Italiano, but if they get Gallagher or Eveland as the PTBNL, this is a huge win for the Padres.

    Comment by rwperu34 — July 6, 2009 @ 3:24 pm

  26. The Padres need to make more deals like this. Take a shot on some unproven guys with the hope of helping the Padres in the future. Let’s be honest, they aren’t going to win the World Series in 2009, so let’s take some steps towards buillding a team that provides some hope of that happening in the future. I’d rather lose 110 in 2009 or 2010 and turn into the Tampa Bay Rays of 2011 or 2012, than “compete” for the NL west title and never win another playoff series.

    Comment by Jason — July 6, 2009 @ 3:26 pm

  27. I don’t think ERA+ is deeply informative, but it’s sufficiently accurate for comparative purposes. When a player’s career ERA+ is close to his current season ERA+, and he has a large enough body of work, questions of luck and defense are less relevant.

    Gaudin has a -.8 pitching VORP. Correia is +7.5. That puts Correia at #30 of 40 NL pitchers with at least 90 innings.

    Even if both were league-average, it doesn’t change the fact that with Peavy and Young hurt, and both having bad injury profiles, and the 5th starter spot manned by luminaries such as Geer and Silva, the Padres need is still clearly for pitching.

    Comment by Tom Waits — July 6, 2009 @ 3:26 pm

  28. FIP and xFIP are based on a pitcher’s K%, BB%, and HR% (though for xFIP a standard HR/FB is multiplied by the pitcher’s FB%), so it’s not park-adjusted, though park factors have much less impact over FIP and xFIP than defense and luck have on ERA.

    And ERA+, because it is based on ERA, is actually not accurate for comparative purposes, at least not for a single season. It’s true that luck and defense should even out over a long enough period of time, but a pitcher’s ERA at any given moment in a season could be influenced by any combination of defense, luck, and actual pitching performance, so using ERAs to compare different pitchers ends up comparing lots of things that you shouldn’t really care about.

    If you go to the player pages at this website and click on “Show Averages” in the “Advanced” section, you’ll see that both Gaudin (3.75) and Correia (4.08) have FIPs better than the league-average value of 4.30.

    This post has a really good discussion of how ERA and WHIP fall short and what peripheral statistics are better tools for evaluating pitcher talent:

    Comment by Friendly Neighborhood Language Critic — July 6, 2009 @ 3:50 pm

  29. I wouldn’t deny that the Padres 2009 defense hurts their pitchers. That they’re now reportedly considering an outfield with both Headley and Blanks is stunning. Still, Petco is such an extraordinary pitcher’s park that any stat which doesn’t account for it will miss something.

    When every single pitcher who has started for the Padres this year, besides Peavy, has an ERA+ below 82, while most of the relief staff is north of 100, it’s hard to imagine that it’s just luck and bad defense.

    Correia had a very nice month of June, but is now approaching his career high in major league innings pitched. He’s also half-a-run below his career FIP, and while he’s not old, he’s no kid, either. His current ERA+ is lower than his career number, but not by a huge amount. That makes 2009 look like a fluke to me, definitely not something the team should be counting on moving forward.

    And again, you still gotta have 5 starters, and even if Gaudin and Correia are two of those, there are 3 spots open. With Peavy and Young’s injury / durability history, and the lack of quality pitching in the upper minors, a couple of those are likely to stay open.

    Comment by Tom Waits — July 6, 2009 @ 4:06 pm

  30. Gallagher got put in the A’s doghouse due to injuries, poor spring performance. So bad that Beane pulled him aside for awake up call, but it did no help. Gallagher went from a rotation lock to getting passed up by mazzaro/cahill/anderson/braden/outman etc. Plus gio gonzalez/simmons is still around. I do think he’ll be a solid pitcher eventually, but the hype has died down some in a span of 5-6 months. IMO he’scloser to a gaudin type pitcher eventually. Can be a solid mid rotation guy, but his fringy off speed stuff and control might hold him back. IMO he’s worth the risk for padres who dont have much depth. The A’s offense has been so lousy that they were willing to take a risk with pitching depth.

    Comment by AsFan — July 6, 2009 @ 5:45 pm

  31. I’m an A’s fan and I think you’re WAY overselling Hairston. His AAA numbers were compiled in the D’Backs farm system which is infamous for being some of the most hitter-friendly territory in organized baseball. His stark platoon split and – at best – league average career numbers entering 2009 lead me to believe his “breakthrough” this year is actually the hottest 10 week stretch of his life.

    Why not just platoon Travis Buck and Aaron Cunningham in RF and – since Oakland seems smitten with Ryan Sweeney’s glove (and not his sub-.700 OPS); keep Sweeney in CF?

    Comment by Aaron C. — July 6, 2009 @ 6:02 pm

  32. This team needs an infusion of “talent” in the worst possible way. I realize I may be committing heresy by using another web site’s numbers, but for people who don’t like ERA+ and OPS+, we could go with Runs Created (RC) and Pitching Runs Created (PRC) from The Hardball Times.

    Peavy leads the team in PRC, even hurt, at 32. That’s 1 run better than Chase Headley, who checks in at 4th among Padre hitters in RC. Headley and Correia are tied. Gaudin’s PRC is 22, which means he’s been outproduced by Tony Gwynn Jr and barely more productive than Hundley, who’s been out for 3 weeks and not catching everyday before that. Adrian Gonzalez and David Eckstein have combined for 108 RC. It would take about 4 pitchers to equal that.

    I don’t mean to suggest that we don’t need help offensively. We certainly do. But if the offense has the flu, the pitching has ebola.

    Comment by Tom Waits — July 6, 2009 @ 6:02 pm

  33. Coreira and Guadin have been pitching over their heads statistically speaking. To put this into perspective, Andrew Bailey was ranked the #23 prospect in the A’s farm system, and Craig Italiano is/was #24. As many have elaborated, Scott Hairston has been having a good year, but he has never eally done that before. Honestly, complaining about this trade is ridiculous because the PTBNL needs to be named before any serious, non-emotional analyst.

    I remember the AJ Pierzynski trade when he was shipped from the Twins to the Giants for then no-names Joe Nathan, Francisco Liriano, and Boof Bonser. Joe Nathan, a recently convert SS, is now a perennial all star, Liriano may never return to his rookie year levels, but is an adequate pitcher, and Bonser is essentially nothing. There was a lot of complaining then, even with Joe Mauer coming up through the minors.

    What I am trying to say is, one cannot decide if the trade is awful until more time has passed.

    Comment by Stephen — July 6, 2009 @ 9:05 pm

  34. Well… then the question is what would the league average FIP be in Petco? Almost certainly lower than 4.3. Neither of those guys have incredibly low HR/FB rates though, so maybe they really are that good. Petco helps pitchers walk and strikeout rates a bit though too, IIRC.

    Comment by don — July 6, 2009 @ 10:25 pm

  35. Italiano will be a reliever. They might keep him in the rotation for now, as the A’s were doing, but the guy can’t get through 5 innings without throwing 110 pitches. He doesn’t have enough pitches he can get over for strikes to stay in the rotation. In the bullpen, that fastball and one more pitch will be enough to make him successful.

    Comment by JD — July 7, 2009 @ 4:04 am

  36. I’m hoping Carrillo can turn it around. Played Little League with him, and for a while it looked like he was going to rise through the organization really quickly before the injury bug got him.

    Comment by JD — July 7, 2009 @ 4:05 am

  37. It’s too bad the injuries were caused by Bob Geren not pulling Gallagher when he was in pain last season. Guy was always healthy and had good control before that miserable outing.

    Comment by JD — July 7, 2009 @ 4:09 am

  38. Dude, .295 OBP versus RHP in Petco Park is, at worst, slightly below average.

    Why do people insist on using numbers without park adjustments?

    Comment by Paul Thomas — July 7, 2009 @ 11:32 am

  39. What is important to note is that you can’t take bad pitchers and put them in PETCO and have them become good pitchers because of the dimensions of the park, because the other teams’ pitchers are going to be better also. To win your pitchers need to be better then the competition’s, and this trade does provide some depth.

    Comment by Ed Nelson — July 7, 2009 @ 1:47 pm

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