Well, honestly, some people can be ridiculous when it comes to pointing out errors in these posts, which is what I mean by ‘that guy’ but this one just reads awkwardly. Players’ names are repeated over and over and over.
It’s unlikely that Ramirez returns to the Cubs. Many fans see him as a guy who only performs after the team is out of it, is injured too much and is bad defensively.
More importantly, 2009 was a 0.4 WAR year and they have so much bad money tied up in Zambrano and Soriano. I don’t think the Cubs are interested in signing another guy to a high 8 figure contract to a guy through his mid 30’s again.
Then again, they haven’t asked me what I think, they aren’t likely to and stranger things have happened.
“The Marlins certainly got their money’s worth…Dobbs accumulated 0.5 WAR. If 1 WAR is worth $5 million, that’s a $2.5 million value for $600,000.”
I wish I had more time to study it myself, but all this seems to suggest is that WAR and value do not have a linear relationship. First, 0.5 WAR players are only slightly less common than replacement players and much more common than 4 or 5 or especially 8 WAR players. The supply matters. Second, it seems like a strong premise that wins are not linearly valued at the team level. The next win for the Braves or Red Sox was worth much, much more than for the A’s or Reds or even Blue Jays. You get those marginal team wins by adding WAR at each of the 9 starting positions. So each additional player WAR at a given starting position is worth significantly more than adding an additional player with that same WAR. Having a starting 3B accumulate 0.5 WAR is not any kind of value to be proud of (well, maybe for the Marlins)- it’s a wasted position.
I think you are right, but then value is also going to vary with how good a team is (the value of a marginal win thing which has been discussed) as well as the market and budget. I think the value of a WAR is better applied in the other direction. For example, dividing the total WAR by total dollars paid just to sort of get an idea of what the market is willing to pay in general. Obviously if you have a wealthy team just on the cusp and a good player available to fill their one gaping hole then that team might be willing to pay more than $5M/WAR and it might be completely justified because a post season berth or WS championship will reap a windfall that will offset the cost.
Sign me up for the Kevin Kouzmanoff band wagon. He’s gotta rebound, right? RIGHT?
Comment by The Nicker — October 18, 2011 @ 4:28 pm
I know you have to pick a cutoff, and I’m sure .871 fit the narrative you are trying to sell, but that is awfully high. For example, Dustin Pedroia’s OPS was under .871 this year and he had a .377 wOBA, which was #31 in all of baseball. A 3rd baseman could easily be a 3-5 win player with a sub-.871 OPS.
I guess it’s not arbitrary because it is what he hit, but I think the point remains that it is awfully high and to say that he likely won’t hit above it in the future is different than saying he would not be valuable to a team.
I didn’t state or suggest that Ramirez wouldn’t be valuable going forward. I said only that whatever team signs him shouldn’t expect the same level of offensive production over the next 3-4 years as he provided this year given his age and injury history.
If there was ever a time for my Mets to explore what David Wright is worth now would seem to be the time. They aren’t going to contend anytime soon, andhe do a lot of His stock isn’t the greatest after a poor, injury riddled season but he’s still fairly young (Will be 29 Opening Day 2012) and is light years better than guys like Dobbs, Punto, and E5.
Pronouns are a helluva lot better than amatuer nouns.
Comment by CircleChange11 — October 18, 2011 @ 7:57 pm
What the BABIP happened to Felipe Lopez?
I wouldn;t mind seeing him at 2B in StL in 2012.
Comment by CircleChange11 — October 18, 2011 @ 7:58 pm
Can somebody remind me who Rene Gonzalez is/was?
Why does Aramis Ramirez think that anybody is going to pay him more than $16.5 mil in 2012? Or really anything close to $16.5 mil? Even if someone were to give him, say, three years, $30 mil, he’s looking at a $6.5 mil paycut in 2012 (assuming it’s $10 mil even each year), and I have kind of a tough time believing that he couldn’t get more than a two-year, $13.5 mil deal NEXT offseason ($30 mil – $16.5 mil = $13.5 mil). The only way that he wouldn’t get more than two years, $13.5 mil during the 2012-13 offseason is if he is pretty worthless in 2012. Which is very possible and ultimately the reason why I don’t see teams bending over backwards to sign the guy to a particularly large contract.
I am a little worried that Philly overreacts to their early postseason exit, their zero run performance in Game 5, and Placido Polanco’s extremely rapid aging process and puts in a lofty bid for Ramirez. This is a team that is not as averse to giving relatively large contracts to aging players as they should be as well as a team in win-now/desperation mode. I can see them talking themselves into giving Ramirez something like three years, $30 mil, especially with Ryan Howard possibly out for a pretty good while. Certainly the Phillies make more sense as a Ramirez destination than the infamously dirt-cheap Marlins or the complete mess that is the L.A. Dodgers at the moment. I can kind of see Detroit making the guy a pretty decent offer, as well; here’s another team that is thinking that it’s maybe one guy away, has some money to burn, and wanting a pretty dramatic boost to their offense.
Comment by Robbie G. — October 18, 2011 @ 11:28 pm
Why does Aramis Ramirez think that anybody is going to pay him more than $16.5 mil in 2012?
He may have just wanted out of Chicago, although for 16M,he could probably tolerate it for another year.
IMHO, what Aramis is wanting is YEARS, not necessarily the highest amount in 2012.
We all know how Ramirez has battled injuries in recent years. If he has an injury plagued 2012, the amount he would command in FA is probably much less than he could command now … and he’s also the biggest name free agent out there (and probably the best player f the 3B FA’s).
I think your last 2 comments are pretty much spot on. Teams like the Phils and Tigers are in need of a 3B (DET more than PHL), and as we’ve discussed here … the quality of ML 3B’s is not what it used to be.
It seems reasonable to me that ARam and agent could convince a team that he “is back” and that 2010 was an outlier season.
Even if he’s on the decline and averages 2.5-3 WAR over the next 3 seasons, he’s worth 30-36M. I think some team will pay him, not 16M for one year like he had in CHC, but 30-36M over 3 years … which is overall more money than he might make if 2012 is a down year or injured year in CHC … and he gets to play for a team that feels it is one piece away from serious contention, and not enduring what could be a horrible 2012 season.
Aramis is in a fortunate situation that might not occur in 2012. I think he knows this, which is why he turned down a single year’s salary of 16M.
Comment by CircleChange11 — October 18, 2011 @ 11:40 pm
I think it was a result of going into auto pilot for the author. I’ve been guilty of the same in the past. If you do a ctrl-f for ‘him,’ you’ll find that the A-Ram section has a few, and then the rest of the article completely lacks for them. And as it turned out (and least the way I experienced the article), the A-Ram section was the part with life. This is understandable, it’s quite literally a waste of time to write about Greg Dobbs – Free Agent At Large.
To reinforce the above point, think about this scenario.
You’re a baseball player, you love playing the game and you get paid a lot of money for it. But you’re getting up in years and have on-going health issues.
After two injury plagued seasons, you bounce back with a strong season. You have the choice of getting paid $16.5 mil for one year or entering free agency as the only non-backup at your position. You cannot hope to make $16.5 mil in one season, but you can target a total contract worth $40-50 over 3-4 years. Which do you choose?
Personally, I think I would gain the most from the long term deal. There’s a strong possibility that playing out the current contract could re-expose my injury problems and change my future value from $40-50 to $16.5+maybe an $8 million reclamation deal like Lance Berkman.