He is 41, but honestly he has been (emphasis on been) one of the better lefty options over the past couple of years. There is no denying his past performance, but I’m not sure which category a 41YO reliever that throws in the mid-high 80s belongs. It’s a great question, I wish I had the answer.
He had a 3 WAR because he was able to sustain a 1.53 FIP over 67 innings. Romo had a .96 FIP this year, but was less valuable because he didn’t pitch as much. FIP does not equal WAR. Also, I think WAR is any easier stat to internalize, but both are important in evaluating pitchers.
“[Joe Nathan] could prove to be a steal for some team.” Uh, no. The Twins are closer obsessed. They will probably resign him and two other closer for a grand total of $25M/yr.
Comment by barkey Walker — October 25, 2011 @ 3:32 pm
Why any team would spend a massive sum of money on an individual relief pitcher after witnessing Tampa Bay throw together a cost-effective and overall effective bullpen is beyond me, but it will surely happen. All owners of MLB teams should be pointing to what Tampa Bay is doing on a small budget and ask management, “Why can’t we do that?”
Sorry if I seem too critical. I like how everything else in this article was formatted and organized. Makes sense to split up the left handed and right handed relievers, since that’s how interested teams are going to be looking at them. I would have done the same for the outfield free agent piece, as most of the free agents are no more than 4th outfielders/platoon men, teams are going to be paying attention to their handedness.
What evidence is there that Madson won’t sustain his current production over a reasonable multi-year contract? Since this seems to be the only thing that separates Madson from Papelbon in your analysis, it would help if you gave an explicit reason (especially since Madson’s FIP is better than Papelbon’s over the last 3 years). Is it just that Madson has gone from being a mid-90s thrower who occasionally hit the upper-90s to a mid-90s thrower who doesn’t get any higher?
Robbie, the difficult part is figuring out if TB is really good at putting together a cheap bullpen, or if they just got lucky. Every year there are scrap-heap relievers that do well. Hit on 2-3 of them, and you look great. Don’t hit on them, and you look like fools.
Some deals are downright stupid, like paying good money for average relievers. But I can see why a contender would pay a premium for a known quantity.
Comment by vivalajeter — October 25, 2011 @ 6:35 pm
He has a vesting option for 2012 based on games finished. I think (based on the fact that he is not listed on some Free Agent lists) that his option vested and that he will not be a free agent in 2012.
As a NATS fan since day one, it is sad to see Luis Ayala listed as replacement level. Prior to the fist WBC he was an outstanding reliever, but he injured his arm at the WBC. We could have one a game or two more most of the last 5 seasons had he stayed healthy.
Comment by kick me in the GO NATS — October 25, 2011 @ 9:30 pm
fist = first
Comment by kick me in the GO NATS — October 25, 2011 @ 9:30 pm
This is correct. Option for $4mm in 2012 kicked in after his 55th appearance this year.
Comment by Tanner Scheppers — October 25, 2011 @ 9:46 pm
Brandon League is not a free agent, at least not at this time. He’s headed into his final arbitration season, and will almost certainly be tendered by Seattle.
Comment by Nathaniel Dawson — October 25, 2011 @ 9:57 pm
very good article and I agree closers and Bull pens are very hard to get right
plainly though Papelbon is a good choice–Broxton could be a sleeper also for the right price and maybe Krod but I would have to see that he is ok mentally as well as phisically and no more than 2 years @ 5 million per year at the most-Madson could be good but about 5.5 million at 2 years also–Bull pen is tuff and sometimes its better to go with rookies and no-names–After you have a good closer and setup guy it is a crapshoot–I would consult everyone of my coaches and GM to
You think I’m joking but the Twins payed $17.5 M in 2011 for 29 saves from Capps and Nathan and then thought about trading Denard Span for the second best relief pitcher on the Nats who was, “a closer”.
Comment by barkey Walker — October 25, 2011 @ 11:16 pm
Didn’t the playoffs show why contenders like to overpay for relievers? Relievers matter more in the post-season than they do in the regular season, and if you’re a contender it might be a good idea to get a few top-tier relievers.
Also a lot of teams have no idea how to build an effective bullpen. Those teams tend to also spend a bunch of money on bullpen arms. These teams are also usually small-market and bad (*cough* Houston *cough*)
I read an article here one time about this very situation. Relievers are freely available. A team like Tampa will throw them out to pitch and if they aren’t any good, they go with another cheap asset and hope it works out. Eventually, they will assemble a pretty good bullpen. The problem is that they could lose a lot of games before they get to this point. A team like New York does not want to lose these games because, with their team salary, they can throw away money on relievers if only to get relievers that have an increased chance of being good.
A team like Baltimore or KC has no business buying relievers as losing a few more games while building their bullpen is not really a problem.
The only reason relievers matter so much this year is because the team’s with good starting pitching got knocked out early. What worked this year will not necessarily be a template of success next season.
Spending money on elite relivers is smart spending much of anything on average->barely good relievers is retarded. Growing them is far more logical, look what the padre’s do they constantly have among the best bullpens put together by spare parts and arb eligible players. The plan they run is not “luck” either since towers went to Arizona and put together a pretty good bullpen after the huge mess Arizona’s was last year. Hell if you grow enough you can trade a few of your extra’s to desperate teams for players like Maybin or (Nats traded for him) Ramos.
Step 1 collect live arms(usually flawed ones teams undervalue), step 2 run them as starters til upper minors then let them loose in ml bullpen, or convert failed starters with good stuff to relievers. step 3 collect nearly free above replacement lvl bullpen work.
Like honestly if i was a team i would take a shot on Kyle Davies from the royals put him in the pen and see if it works, guy has decent stuff im sure he would be replacement level atleast. Pretty sure he’ll get non tendered this offseason too.