November 7, 2011 at 2:38 pm
Brad Johnson says:
November 7, 2011 at 2:41 pm
I kind of get the sense that Price is currently too valuable for another team to acquire. It makes sense that they would wait until next offseason to trade him, when his value is more in line with the typical types of prospect packages available.
November 7, 2011 at 2:42 pm
Is Alex Torres not also in the mix, or is he still a year or so away from a real shot?
November 7, 2011 at 2:44 pm
Gotta be Shields. He’ll ruin the Rays streak of no starting pitchers at 30 years old.
The Rajah says:
November 7, 2011 at 2:53 pm
Trading BJ Upton for a couple of mediocre prospects looks like the initial move. When that is done, a Shields deal is the right move. Price may be pricier than Shields over the next 3 years, but he will also be MUCH better. The Rays aren’t willing to pay a high salary to anyone on their club, but they sure can see quality for their peanuts and Price will bring more value than Shields.
November 7, 2011 at 2:57 pm
Torres is most likely a bullpen arm this season and really beyond. Watching him pitch in his short stay in the big leagues this Septemeber, his stuff is dynamic. His command however is poor and I doubt it’s ever good enough to start. He should however be a cheap, above-average arm out of the pen. I would expect him to look kind of like Jake McGee looked this season, dominant at times with bouts of inconsistancy.
Dizzy Valance says:
November 7, 2011 at 3:01 pm
What about Yonder Alonso and Yasmani Grandal to the Rays for James Shields to Cincy?
November 7, 2011 at 3:25 pm
That would be a terrible deal for Cincy.
Thanks, good to know.
Ari Collins says:
November 7, 2011 at 3:30 pm
People keep proposing this one, but I think there’s a reason for that. It makes an awful lot of sense.
Matt Bertelli says:
November 7, 2011 at 3:35 pm
I don’t know if it was intentional but I cracked up when I read “but he will be one of the losses that stings the most” about a Rays player
Dizzy Valance says:
November 7, 2011 at 3:36 pm
Are you not convinced Shields is the real deal or are you high on Yonder and Yasmani?
Steve Irwin says:
November 7, 2011 at 3:37 pm
Brad Johnson says:
November 7, 2011 at 4:14 pm
Just Shields smells a little short of a deal, but if they were to throw in one of their borderline middle infielders like Brignac, I think it really helps both clubs.
Robert J. Baumann says:
November 7, 2011 at 4:19 pm
I looked at MLB Depth Charts the other day and noticed that they pencil’d in Russ Canzler as the Rays’ starting 1B for 2012. I then I looked at Canzler’s minor league stats to see if that was even remotely viable. Turns out, it might be.
I don’t know if other teams would value B.J. as much as the Rays, given their reliance on and success with defense.
I’m inclined to think that the Rays wouldn’t fill any holes on the major league roster by trading one or more of their pitchers, but rather try to keep the cupboard well stocked.
November 7, 2011 at 4:23 pm
I don’t know, might be even straight up. Here’s why:
1. Shields’ contract is so good, there’s more surplus value there than there would be with the average SP of his caliber, and
2. Everyone in America knows the Reds have little leverage with those two because of Votto and Mesoraco. Those guys are a part of every projected Reds trade ever because they don’t want them to rot in the minors. I bet this would work to the Rays’ advantage.
November 7, 2011 at 4:25 pm
In comparing Lincecum to Price stats, you must take into account the better offense provided by Rays compared to the Giants. If Giants had a better offense, Linecum’s win total and possibly ERA would improve at the least.
November 7, 2011 at 4:48 pm
Nats send Morse (ignoring UZR, his defense at first was at the very least average, from that of a nats fan perspective), Derek Norris to Tampa for Price.
To me it sounds like a good deal for both clubs, and could happen if the nats miss on Oswalt, Wilson, or Darvish.
November 7, 2011 at 5:16 pm
Stephen Strasburg, David Price and Jordan Zimmermann in the same rotation? My body is ready.
November 7, 2011 at 5:20 pm
I, for one, would love to know how having a better offense in SF would improve Lincecum’s ERA.
November 7, 2011 at 5:28 pm
You might, I might, a GM might, but arbitrators don’t.
November 7, 2011 at 7:23 pm
Haha, I was wondering that same thing. Lincecum’s win total might change… but his stats won’t.
I, for one, believe it is more likely for Lindsay Lohan to live to 80 than James Shields get traded.
November 7, 2011 at 7:37 pm
This makes perfect sense.
Brad Johnson says:
November 7, 2011 at 8:12 pm
I don’t really see the Reds giving away either guy. Especially with Alonso, it’s obvious that Votto’s time in Cincy is growing short. It can’t hurt to have his replacement waiting around at any time.
November 7, 2011 at 8:27 pm
No way the Rays would do this.
A Fan says:
November 7, 2011 at 9:31 pm
I’m not arguing with the comparison, but did anyone else notice that the stats they showed to tell how well Price and Lincecum pitched were ERA and Wins??? Isn’t the whole point of Fangraphs to show the true value and talent level of players??
Chet Regret says:
November 7, 2011 at 9:45 pm
I’m beginning to wonder if the Reds would be willing to include Drew Stubbs in a deal for James Shields. While Stubbs struggled a bit last season, he’s the kind of defense-first, toolsy CF the Rays would want if they’re serious about trading Upton, and the fact that Stubbs is still pre-arb would be attractive to them as well.
Stubbs/Mesoraco for Shields?
November 7, 2011 at 10:04 pm
No, since the discussion centered around arbitration contracts, and it is assumed that those are the statistics the arbitrators focus on.
November 7, 2011 at 10:12 pm
did you read the article?
November 8, 2011 at 12:03 am
maybe LoMo and Bonifacio for Shields and BJ? Rays need a shortstop and Morrison is better at 1st, Marlins need a center fielder and SP depth
tyrone biggums says:
November 8, 2011 at 12:14 am
do you want some crack?
November 8, 2011 at 1:29 am
“Few pitchers start off their career with such a run of dominance. If you look at all the top pitchers in the game right now, it’s difficult to find others pitchers that pitched at this high a level — at least, according to these three stats — right out of the gate. Not Justin Verlander, not Jered Weaver, not Cole Hamels, not Zack Greinke. Many of these pitchers commanded around $4-5 million in their first year of arbitration, but considering Price’s success, it’s not too crazy to think he gets somewhere between $6-8 million.”
Kershaw’s has 700 innings pitched, 47 wins, and a 2.88 career ERA so far. And he’s scheduled to make around $8.5 MM. Price might barely exceed $6 MM, imo.
November 8, 2011 at 1:36 am
And Kershaw is also first-year arb-eligible this season.
November 8, 2011 at 10:39 am
zero percent chance of this happening as Morse is arb eligible this season and Norris is at MOST only marginally better than any of the lower level catchers the rays have in their system already. Sure the rays would save money but I don’t think their FO would consider it an improvement.
Matt C says:
November 8, 2011 at 11:06 am
On the flip side if Price got to face the Dodgers, Padres and Rockies a dozen or so times a season instead of the Yankees, Red Sox and Blue Jays his ERA and win total would likely improve.
November 8, 2011 at 12:01 pm
He is… How would the fan base react to something like this? I imagine they would be able to swallow a Shields trade easier even though it wouldn’t return something as spectacular. With a delicate fan base, they need to ensure some consistency with winning and pleasing now to hopefully create some financial room with extending a piece or two of heir core. Oakland is a great example of an organization trapped in a constant recycling mode… They’ve become a perennially average organization… a great way in keeping from suffering an organizational collapse, but for the Rays, they are to competitive right now to act this way. Dealing Price would be getting way ahead of themselves at this stage of the game. I would take my chances on a less significant return with Upton and/or Shields.
The Rays will never be able to sustain the necessary payroll flexibility to retain the talent they have, no matter how consistent they are as a playoff competitor . It’s either survive well enough to mostly be average, or go for it when the window is most open and risk the downside… Unfortunate
November 8, 2011 at 12:15 pm
Unfortunately for Cincy, they’ve already devalued Yonder quite a bit. They completely exposed his lack of versatility, and Dusty isn’t the guy to work through those rookie quirks and allow his hitting value to mature. Any deal involving him will have to be overpriced, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it appears to be a steal. They showed their hand too soon.
November 8, 2011 at 12:30 pm
Yonder might be 27 with 4 seasons experience in AAA learning LF/3B before he gets a chance to replace Votto at first. That doesn’t make sense at all. Dusty made it clear that he won’t put up with his defensive issues anytime soon. Sometime soon, either Votto goes, or Yonder goes, and I don’t see Votto going yet.
The Grandall/Mesoraco conflict has time to stick around a little longer.
November 8, 2011 at 1:38 pm
I tend to agree that a perfect trade would be some of the reds hitting depth for Shields or Price.
November 9, 2011 at 2:42 pm
How on earth would Lincecum’s ERA improve as a result of a better SF offense????
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