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  1. So, “Can the Marlins Really Sign Reyes, Pujols and Buehrle?” No way.

    Comment by Yirmiyahu — November 14, 2011 @ 10:25 am

  2. I don’t think trading Hanley while his value is at an all-time low is a smart idea. I’d wait until he puts up another .300-25-100 year. Of course, the Marlins could sign Aaron Harang, Jimmy Rollins, Edwin Jackson, Ryan Madson, and Sizemore for that type of combined money

    Comment by Blue Jays Fan — November 14, 2011 @ 10:54 am

  3. In all seriousness, how much art will Jeff Loria have to sell to pay for all this? I can’t see how the Marlins could actually afford to increase payroll that much. It seems to be a massive risk that Loria wouldn’t actually take. I’m betting a lot of this is posturing to drive buzz around the new name and stadium.

    Comment by John — November 14, 2011 @ 11:03 am

  4. Looks like your projected payroll is way off. You only allocated $5M for “factoring in replacement costs and bumps in arbitration for players like Anibal and Clay Hensley.” Six players have contractual salary raises (Johnson, Hanley, Nolasco, Buck, Infante, Choate) totaling $16.5M. Josh Johnson alone gets a $6M raise. And, looking at MLBTraderumors’s estimates (http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/11/projected-arbitration-salaries.html) together with Cot’s, the nine arbitration raises (Sanchez, Volstad, Oviedo, Bonifacio, Mujica, Hensley, Baker, Badenhop, Murphy) together add up to about $10.5M

    That’s a total $27M in salary increases. So, taking your $58M starting figure, subtracting $8.6M for Dobbs/Helms/Vazquez, and adding in the $27M pay raises, and the Marlins already have an $76.4M payroll.

    Comment by Yirmiyahu — November 14, 2011 @ 11:09 am

  5. Any chance this desire/posturing to spend is linked to Selig and the Dodgers? McCourt trying to open the MLB books with specific reference to the Marlins could be driving a push to demonstrate that the team’s finances are fine. Couple years worth of news reports stating that Loria was pocketing luxury taxes and crying poverty when convincing Miami to build his stadium might force Loria to perform this spending spree or be earnestly trying to do so. Could be Selig telling Loria straight up to spend more lest some court in the future actually does open up MLB’s books.

    Comment by Endeav — November 14, 2011 @ 11:21 am

  6. Forgive me if I’m still slow to wake up on this Monday morning, but I don’t quite get your calcs. Marlins payroll is about $49 million for 2012 before factoring in arbitration cases. That comes from Cot’s itself — $46 mil and then the league minimum renewals for guys like LoMo, Stanton, Cousins, Hayes, etc. Add to that the arb estimates — between $8-$10 mil — and we’re at $57-$59 mil.

    Comment by Eric Seidman — November 14, 2011 @ 11:24 am

  7. Loria is doing a Papelbon-esque riverdance over all the attention the Marlins are getting. I’m willing to bet he is low-balling on his offers and just doing everything for the publicity. Hooray for publicly funded stadiums!

    Comment by TheGrandSlamwich — November 14, 2011 @ 11:39 am

  8. Yeah Im not sure he meant that as a very serious conjecture. There isn’t much of a chance Hanley goes anywhere

    Comment by Kyle — November 14, 2011 @ 11:42 am

  9. Josh Johnson already signed a long term contract, no arbitration for him

    Comment by Kyle — November 14, 2011 @ 11:44 am

  10. He’s no Peter Angelos

    Comment by Kyle — November 14, 2011 @ 11:45 am

  11. Well, I was taking the 2011 salary and then adding/subtracting the changes, which is what you did in the article.

    But if you want to do it this way, starting from scratch and adding up all the 2012 salaries….
    $15.00M – Ramirez
    $13.75M – Johnson
    $9.00M – Nolasco
    $6.00M – Sanchez – arb
    $6.00M – Buck
    $5.80M – Oviedo – arb
    $4.00M – Infante
    $2.60M – Volstad – arb
    $2.10M – Bonifacio – arb
    $1.80M – Hensley – arb
    $1.60M – Mujica – arb
    $1.50M – Choate
    $1.10M – Badenhop – arb
    $0.80M – Baker – arb
    $0.70M – Murphy – arb
    $4.14M – 10 more players @ league min
    ———-
    $75.89M – TOTAL

    I got the arb estimates from here: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/11/projected-arbitration-salaries.html

    The problem is your arbitration estimates. Those nine arb guys made over $12M last year; so there’s no way they’re only making $8-$10M this year.

    Comment by Yirmiyahu — November 14, 2011 @ 11:51 am

  12. Right. I listed him with the contractual raises, not the arb raises. His contract paid him $7.75M in 2011, but will pay him $13.75M in 2012.

    Comment by Yirmiyahu — November 14, 2011 @ 11:55 am

  13. Yeah I see what happened there. I used the increases as the salary, not on top of. Thanks.

    Comment by Eric Seidman — November 14, 2011 @ 11:56 am

  14. I’m not trying to be an ass here, Eric. I just think that your numbers are significantly off, and it really affects the analysis here. If their budget is really $80M, they don’t have much wiggle room.

    Comment by Yirmiyahu — November 14, 2011 @ 11:57 am

  15. Nobody said you were being an ass? I agree — updated the para to assuage confusion. Thanks for the comment. The major point still stands that the Marlins have to get creative or increase spending a lot to make a splash. If it isn’t trading Hanley or another highly-salaried player, they need to go past the $80 mil mark.

    Comment by Eric Seidman — November 14, 2011 @ 11:59 am

  16. This is what I was going to write. It’s why I ID’d Anibal Sanchez as a trade target for the Royals. The key is the increases in guaranteed money on long-term deals over last year. Huge increases, as you can see illustrated by Yirmiyahu.

    The point is they are essentially already there in terms of a payroll target. Either they are going to blow that figure out of the water, or trade some guys.

    Comment by Paul — November 14, 2011 @ 12:04 pm

  17. Right. This is a critical point. The Marlins are in a perfect storm of contractual increases right now.

    People really need to understand that long-term contracts are almost always backloaded, and these contracts that are cheap for teams often increase dramatically in the middle years.

    Comment by Paul — November 14, 2011 @ 12:06 pm

  18. How confident are you that Hanely will put up another .300-25-100 year? He was awful last year, and recent pictures appear that he put on a lot of weight (and not in a good way). If they can trade him to a team that expects a .300-25-100 year, they should be able to get solid prospects as well as shed his $15MM.

    Comment by vivalajeter — November 14, 2011 @ 12:21 pm

  19. The state income tax issue is really not a big deal. It would end up being around $750k a year. That’s a pittance in comparison to what the difference in marketability could be between teams.

    Comment by cpebbles — November 14, 2011 @ 12:46 pm

  20. Endeav, right on the money. Recall the slap on the wrist Mr. Loria and the Marlins received from MLB in ’09 following the leaked financials? Their history speaks for itself. Pitiful payroll while pocketing rev shares dollars at a time when Forbes declared them to be the most profitable franchise in MLB.

    Comment by Carl — November 14, 2011 @ 12:58 pm

  21. Clearly, the Marlins would be a serious contender if they signed those 3 and kept Ramirez.
    Can they? Of course. Loria has plenty of money.
    Will they? I can’t answer that question because I’m laughing too hard.

    Comment by Husker — November 14, 2011 @ 2:26 pm

  22. Its not a matter of “Loria having plenty of money”.
    His personal wealth is almost irrelevant.

    He could be the richest sports owner in the world, but if the Marlins revenue is crap, then hes not going to spend anywhere near the other big market teams. Why would he purposely lose money every year?
    The players paychecks are not coming out of Loria’s personal savings account.

    Thats why signing all (or any) of the the big name FA’s is so incredibly risky. The new ballpark will generate lots of revenue on paper, but until the MLB season is underway theres really no telling how much money will actually be coming in. Nobody knows if fans will show up, and if they do… for how long?

    Comment by cs3 — November 14, 2011 @ 6:31 pm

  23. I’m available at the right price.

    Comment by Chone Figgins — November 14, 2011 @ 7:07 pm

  24. I really REALLY want a clear and logical explanation on why everyone thinks Reyes is going to be awesome. He’s a speed guy having his age 29 season, so he’ll likely get slower from here out. He has a history of injuries and as he gets older, that’ll get worse. His production when healthy is about a 5-6 WAR guy, but again, he’s going to be in his age 29 season, so even that will be declining.

    I mean, through his age 28 season, Reyes hasn’t been MUCH different than say Jimmy Rollins. In hindsight do you want Rollings from age 29-present? Probably not. I don’t see reyes performing much better. Especially not for the ridiculous contract he’ll likely get.

    Comment by antonio bananas — November 14, 2011 @ 11:07 pm

  25. The Marlins are trying to redirect their fans attention away from those hideous unis they trotted out last week by saying they are attempting to sign real free agents. The Marlins have NO intention of signing anyone who would require real money to play for them. Jeffrey Loria runs the biggest welfare team in baseball and waits for the luxury tax to be redistributed to the “poor” teams. Why would he want to ruin his gravy train by actually paying players instead of pocketing that cash for himself?

    Comment by The Rajah — November 15, 2011 @ 10:36 am

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