At Hanley’s current rate of decline, by 2014 he will create 1.7 outs per PA and will sit in the dugout while the Marlins are on defense. I think that by the last month of 2012, he will have stopped carrying a bat to the plate altogether, and will average 2 balls kicked into the outfield per 3 game series.
Comment by Keystone Heavy — November 14, 2011 @ 1:25 pm
A very good article. I had thought moving Ramirez to CF would be best, but you have convinced me otherwise.
I’m a bit surprised that Reyes is signing for 18-20 million per year and only five years. I thought that teams would be more aggressive.
I think at these prices it might make sense for the Mets to match.
Also, if Reyes signs with Miami the Mets get hosed in terms of draft picks because the Marlins have a protected top 15 pick. So the Mets get a sandwhich pick and a 2nd round pick, which is basically terrible. Either they should’ve traded him at the deadline or they should match, IMO.
Reyes was on the DL with a hamstring injury from 7/2 to 7/19 which really hurt his trade value. After he came back he really struggled. Teams were probably wary of trading their best prospects for Reyes at that point.
” Bonaficio isn’t any great shakes, as his .372 BABIP probably isn’t sustainable, and if that regresses he will likely be below average both offensively and defensively. Petersen on the other hand has a chance to be at least league average. ”
I think you are selling Bonifacio well short.
Sure his BABIP was really high last season but that not totally unexpected from a player with his speed that slaps the ball to short on a regular basis to beat out infield hits.
His BB% (9.2%) and OBP (.360) were both well above league average, and his K% was right in line with league average. His speed is just a bonus.
And I dont think the metrics have any idea how good/bad a defender he is since 2010 and 2011 were basically polar opposites of each other and because hes played so many different positions over the past 2 yrs.
All in all, he seems like a pretty valuable player to me.
You really expect Petersen, a guy who has a .312 wOBA and just 266 career MLB AB’s, to outproduce a guy who put up a .341 wOBA over 600+ AB’s just last season?
You can regress Bonifacio all you want, but thats just downright unlikely.
The just released (they were released after I wrote this article) Bill James 2012 projections look as such:
Petersen: .327 wOBA
Bonaficio: .312 wOBA
I get that Bonaficio has played multiple positions, but guys that play a ton of positions usually do so because they are not good enough to stick at one.
Bonaficio’s BABIP in ’11 was his highest mark since High-A ball, and was higher than his highest Major League mark by nearly 40 points. Sorry, but I have to disagree. However, thank you for taking the time to read and for your comment.
i don’t know if he’s athletic enough to play center and not be a disaster there, i think it would end up being a situation like matt kemp or adam jones where the guy just looks “right” out there but isn’t any good (not that athleticism is kemp’s or jones’ problem).
also i have my doubts over whether or not hanley would ever stay healthy enough in center. his season ended this year because he dove for a blooper over his head and fucked his shoulder up (again) upon impact. third base just makes the most sense.
i think if you look deep into boni’s numbers there are definitely a few things that might support that he could be an acceptable player next season. for one, he dropped his o-swing% three points from 2010, and dropped his f-swing% four points 2010. he was a really reckless swinger in year’s past, and he may have just finally understood how to approach at bats successfully.
he also learned how to hit a damn fastball. he was negative runs above average on fastballs for his entire career up until last year when he was 10 runs above average. obviously i have no idea why that is, and i suspect pitchers will get around to throwing him more crap, but that’s still a potentially interesting development. i don’t think it’s a coincidence that his LD% was up two points from 2010, and six points from 2009.
ALL THAT SAID, i think the argument over boni vs petersen is almost a moot point when it comes to the marlins bcuz boni is the marlins number one back up at every position except catcher and first (and if gaby sanchez got hurt, the marlins would move morrison over there and play boni in left). inevitably guys are gonna get hurt, or guys are gonna need days off so boni and petersen will both play a lot anyway.
altho i do think petersen has a lot of potential, and he’s great from a defensive standpoint, and boni makes more sense as a super super sub than a starting player, unless his second half was actually for real.
perhaps the most important factor (that i didnt mention before) is that last year was Bonifacio’s age 26 season so he was just entering his prime… and also happened to be the first season in which he played every day.
also in 2008 he had a .373 BABIP in AAA over 400+ AB’s (exactly matching his 2011 MLB number) so its not like hes never done this before.
its likely that he has improved his skill level and will sustain some of that success. projecting a wOBA that low just seems overly conservative.
the Marlins don’t have some latin SS in their farm right now that will be better, cheaper, and healthier than Reyes over the next 5 years? Big deal, Reyes has a good year at age 28 for the first time in about 3 years. Now he’s going to decline. His main tool (speed) is going to go first and quickest, which brings down everything else he does well. Plus as he gets older he’ll get hurt more. Why would the Fish waste money on him?
Comment by Antonio Bananas — November 15, 2011 @ 5:56 am
I really can’t beleive that this article is comparing bonafacio to peterson. When given a chance Bonafacio one of the most exciting players in the game. This was his first full season in the majors and he put up redic numbers. He has the speed, the defense, and gets on base at the top of the order. A lineup with bonafacio, reyes, hanley, stanton is pretty disgusting. Who cares about Peterson.