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  1. Bill James ALWAYS overestimates rookies who had a good first partial season. By a wide margin.

    Comment by joeiq — November 17, 2011 @ 1:10 pm

  2. what did he say about heyward last year?

    Comment by jcxy — November 17, 2011 @ 1:30 pm

  3. That he would cure cancer, which fell just shy of his projection for Chris Davis the previous year.

    Comment by Choo — November 17, 2011 @ 1:36 pm

  4. I get that people lose track of words like “unique” meaning one of a kind, and am somewhat confused when someone gets confused that “singular” is a synonym for unique, but “one-of-a-kind” is so obviously a superlative, how did you make this mistake? Being more or less one of a kind is like being more or less dead/pregnant. Similarly, there is only one way of being one of a kind, and no-hitters are not one of a kind–there has been more than one.

    Comment by Barkey Walker — November 17, 2011 @ 1:38 pm

  5. I ignore James’ projections as generally ludicrous.

    Comment by ecp — November 17, 2011 @ 1:41 pm

  6. Not that its relevant to Goldschmidt, but the BJ projections will be updated when we get closer to spring training (only three months away!)

    Comment by Mike D — November 17, 2011 @ 1:48 pm

  7. Really? Is this a serious post? At last check, this was Fangraphs, not the MLA or APA resource page.

    Comment by Mike Newman — November 17, 2011 @ 1:52 pm

  8. The “Bill James” projections are made by Baseball Info Solutions, not Bill James.

    Comment by Detroit Michael — November 17, 2011 @ 1:53 pm

  9. Am I’m the only one that has his doubts about Heyward?

    Comment by Keystone Heavy — November 17, 2011 @ 1:58 pm

  10. It was more tongue-in-cheek to set the tone for the piece. Some literal thinkers hanging out on FG today!

    Comment by Mike Newman — November 17, 2011 @ 2:01 pm

  11. Besides being nitpicky about the grammar, you’re also wrong about the meaning of that sentence. He’s not talking about “no-hitters”, he said there are no hitters (i.e. zero other batters) who had that combination of wOBA and K%). Making him, yes, “one of a kind”. Nice attempt there.

    Comment by J.Ro — November 17, 2011 @ 2:04 pm

  12. And KFC still serves the Colonel’s secret recipe despite the fact it causes explosive bowel movements.

    Comment by Choo — November 17, 2011 @ 2:05 pm

  13. J.Ro with the save. I owe you one!

    Comment by Mike Newman — November 17, 2011 @ 2:09 pm

  14. That’s good to know. I was looking at some prospects who may break through and there’s not much there.

    Comment by Mike Newman — November 17, 2011 @ 2:09 pm

  15. I think his 2011 created many more doubts than I thought I’d ever have. However, I wouldn’t worry about him until after 2012.

    Comment by Mike Newman — November 17, 2011 @ 2:10 pm

  16. Mike – With all that said in your article where do you project Goldscmidt for 2012 ? If he even gets in the ballpark of BJ’s power projections he’s a steal where these early mocks have him going.

    Comment by jonnyp07 — November 17, 2011 @ 2:11 pm

  17. Ah, thanks, you are right. My fault.

    Comment by Barkey Walker — November 17, 2011 @ 2:21 pm

  18. As was noted by J.Ro, I was wrong, I’m sorry.

    Comment by Barkey Walker — November 17, 2011 @ 2:23 pm

  19. Bautista: .383 wOBA
    Goldschmidt: .382 wOBA

    Comment by Matt — November 17, 2011 @ 3:21 pm

  20. That is hilarious yet sad at the same time

    Comment by Drew — November 17, 2011 @ 4:01 pm

  21. At least he did not annoint him to the HOF prior to his rookie season… like what happened with Weiters.

    Comment by Paul — November 17, 2011 @ 4:34 pm

  22. Couple things. If all I had to go on was the video embedded here, I’d be VERY pessimistic, and would be going right along with the Balboni comps.

    But there’s more to the story. The AZ announcers raved about how Goldshmidt got there and immediately started working with Don Baylor, how intelligent he is about hitting, and his drive to improve. That improvement was evident during his time there.

    In cases like this I would think investing in MLB.tv would be a really good idea, because you can access the archived full games and watch all his ABs (and skip to only his). I was shocked by how advanced his pitch recognition was. And Tim Lincecum was shocked by his power. If you want to know how he bests Carlos Pena, it’s because he has massive natural RF power and fantastic pitch recognition. Compared to Pena, who has always tried to jerk everything, and still after several years at the MLB level is still one of the most obvious guessers in the game.

    James’ projection for next year is high, but I’ll be waiting for the all the “Where Did Paul Goldschmidt Come From?” articles over the next few years.

    Comment by Paul — November 17, 2011 @ 4:44 pm

  23. This guy is one of the most intelligent players in the league and has an absolutely off-the-charts work ethic.

    If anyone is going to outhit his projections, it’s Goldschmidt.

    Comment by dirtbag — November 17, 2011 @ 10:51 pm

  24. In this line.

    Comment by wat — November 18, 2011 @ 4:52 am

  25. See here

    http://forum.diamondbacksbullpen.org/viewtopic.php?p=70643#p70643

    and 3 posts down from there.

    Comment by shoewizard — November 18, 2011 @ 5:17 am

  26. Would something inbetween Danny Espinosa and Carlos Santana’s 2011 upset you? I see Goldschmidt producing along those lines.

    Comment by Mike Newman — November 18, 2011 @ 6:40 am

  27. Very good points Paul, but a couple of things to consider.

    If there was a tool for “old player skills”, Goldschmidt would be at least a 70 on the 20-80 scale. In general, this is not really a great recipe for sustained success at the big league level.

    From the little I’ve heard from contacts about Goldschmidt, he completely revamped his hitting mechanics prior to 2011 with the DBacks. I know a few months seems like plenty of time to make that kind of change, but it’s very difficult in actuality.

    Walks and smarts will allow him a good floor. I’m just not sure what the top end ceiling is going to look like.

    Comment by Mike Newman — November 18, 2011 @ 6:59 am

  28. That analysis is terrible, as he only selects players with 225-150 PA. Why? Play time doesn’t generate comps…

    When you expand the list to include guys with any number of PA > 200, you get Adam Dunn, Fred McGriff, and Larry Hisle on the list too. It’s not a list of amazing players, many sucked, but some of the comps are certainly very favorable.

    Comment by philosofool — November 18, 2011 @ 11:39 am

  29. You missed the point.

    There are only two players in history with a K rate over 28% that have managed amass 3000 PA’s in the majors, or more or less 6 full season.

    Rob Deer and Russel Branyan.

    Drop the PA requirement to 2000 and the list expands to 6 guys.

    bbref.com/pi/shareit/dP37w

    Drop it to 1000 and you get all of 16 guys

    http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/dteDE

    Fnally , drop it to just 500 pa’s, you get 33 guys, but only 17 of whom produced a positive WAR in their careers.

    http://bbref.com/pi/shareit/eXE0W

    The very simple point is that Goldschmidt is going to have to drop his K% to under 25% to have more than a hail mary’s chance at a decent major league career. Because when guys strike out 28%, 30% etc, they usually don’t get the chance to stick around when they slump. They get sent back down

    Comment by shoewizard — November 19, 2011 @ 4:32 am

  30. ‘then I greatly undersold his overall hitting ability and he’s on the cusp of becoming one of the top-25 hitters in terms of wOBA in all of baseball ‘

    Ding ding ding

    Comment by Nick Andopolis — December 8, 2011 @ 9:50 am

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