I get that people lose track of words like “unique” meaning one of a kind, and am somewhat confused when someone gets confused that “singular” is a synonym for unique, but “one-of-a-kind” is so obviously a superlative, how did you make this mistake? Being more or less one of a kind is like being more or less dead/pregnant. Similarly, there is only one way of being one of a kind, and no-hitters are not one of a kind–there has been more than one.
Comment by Barkey Walker — November 17, 2011 @ 1:38 pm
I ignore James’ projections as generally ludicrous.
Besides being nitpicky about the grammar, you’re also wrong about the meaning of that sentence. He’s not talking about “no-hitters”, he said there are no hitters (i.e. zero other batters) who had that combination of wOBA and K%). Making him, yes, “one of a kind”. Nice attempt there.
Couple things. If all I had to go on was the video embedded here, I’d be VERY pessimistic, and would be going right along with the Balboni comps.
But there’s more to the story. The AZ announcers raved about how Goldshmidt got there and immediately started working with Don Baylor, how intelligent he is about hitting, and his drive to improve. That improvement was evident during his time there.
In cases like this I would think investing in MLB.tv would be a really good idea, because you can access the archived full games and watch all his ABs (and skip to only his). I was shocked by how advanced his pitch recognition was. And Tim Lincecum was shocked by his power. If you want to know how he bests Carlos Pena, it’s because he has massive natural RF power and fantastic pitch recognition. Compared to Pena, who has always tried to jerk everything, and still after several years at the MLB level is still one of the most obvious guessers in the game.
James’ projection for next year is high, but I’ll be waiting for the all the “Where Did Paul Goldschmidt Come From?” articles over the next few years.
Very good points Paul, but a couple of things to consider.
If there was a tool for “old player skills”, Goldschmidt would be at least a 70 on the 20-80 scale. In general, this is not really a great recipe for sustained success at the big league level.
From the little I’ve heard from contacts about Goldschmidt, he completely revamped his hitting mechanics prior to 2011 with the DBacks. I know a few months seems like plenty of time to make that kind of change, but it’s very difficult in actuality.
Walks and smarts will allow him a good floor. I’m just not sure what the top end ceiling is going to look like.
That analysis is terrible, as he only selects players with 225-150 PA. Why? Play time doesn’t generate comps…
When you expand the list to include guys with any number of PA > 200, you get Adam Dunn, Fred McGriff, and Larry Hisle on the list too. It’s not a list of amazing players, many sucked, but some of the comps are certainly very favorable.
Comment by philosofool — November 18, 2011 @ 11:39 am
You missed the point.
There are only two players in history with a K rate over 28% that have managed amass 3000 PA’s in the majors, or more or less 6 full season.
Rob Deer and Russel Branyan.
Drop the PA requirement to 2000 and the list expands to 6 guys.
The very simple point is that Goldschmidt is going to have to drop his K% to under 25% to have more than a hail mary’s chance at a decent major league career. Because when guys strike out 28%, 30% etc, they usually don’t get the chance to stick around when they slump. They get sent back down
Comment by shoewizard — November 19, 2011 @ 4:32 am
‘then I greatly undersold his overall hitting ability and he’s on the cusp of becoming one of the top-25 hitters in terms of wOBA in all of baseball ‘
Ding ding ding
Comment by Nick Andopolis — December 8, 2011 @ 9:50 am