On the face of it, Stanton would be a fool to sign a team-friendly deal through his age 30 season, but then again, he may end up being injury prone. He’s a hell of an athlete, but he’s already missed some playing time with niggling little injuries. I guess if I were the Marlins I’d offer him 60/6 in the hopes that that negates his potentially much higher arb costs.
…he’s a 22-year old player who posted a 138 wRC+ and a wOBA of .378, with quality defense to boot, making him worth 4.5 WAR. He’ll probably never post a BA over .275, but Stanton is a monster.
You do the math. 4.5 WAR*5 million=22.5 million.
I forget the arbitration %s, but for some reason I’ve got 60% stuck in my head. 60% of 22.5 million>10 million.
4.5 WAR in future years is a conservative estimate of Stanton’s value to boot. I wouldn’t be surprised by a few 6-7 WAR years out of him. He’s incredibly valuable.
But Max, they don’t have to pay him ANY millions for the next 3 years, because he’s on the rookie scale. So 6 years, $60MM is basically choosing to give him 3 years, $60MM on top of the chump change they owe him for 2012-14.
Comment by Lukehart80 — December 2, 2011 @ 4:07 pm
I disagree that he would be a fool. What’s $10m when you’ve already got $45. Sign that deal and you’re set for life. Why risk that? To be “more set for life”? I guess I can see a sensible person going either way, but I would much rather have the security of great wealth than a merely good chance to have two or three times that great wealth.
Anyway, I don’t think he’d be irrational to have a utility function with radically diminished marginal value for dollars after the first 30 million are in the bank.
Comment by philosofool — December 2, 2011 @ 5:01 pm
I was rewatching it and just couldn’t summon up the energy to start Season 4.
But, man…when the Galactica jumps into the atmosphere to save the colonists? And then the Pegasus comes back to save them? I am currently tingly.
So he’s got 2 years of being renewed and 3 years of arbitration. A competitive offer through his first 5 years would be something along the lines of …
Y2 – min ($500k)
Y3 – min ($500k)
Y4 – $8m
Y5 – $10m
Y6 – $13m
5/$32 or so to cover his arb years. I’d try to tack on 2 more years at $15m/year bringing the total deal to 7 years / $62m. Not a terribly team friendly deal but given Stanton’s talent level and the heavy bias for players like him in arbitration and FA it seems more than fair. If he were going year to year the deal probably costs him $20m or more. On his side of the equation though the Marlins are guaranteeing him top dollars and assuming that he continues to be a standout player.
Seems like a win/win deal that is slanted enough in Stanton’s favor to give him a great reason to accept it.
10/100 has the pleasant ring of round numbers. Obviously meaningful risks there for both parties (and quite unlikely to happen as a consequence) but could set Stanton up as the face of the franchise for the next decade.
Mike Stanton would be a fool to sign an extension with the Marlins, especially if it bought out ANY free agent years. He would reach free agency in the middle of his prime and would get a RIDICULOUS contract. I consider to Stanton and Madison Bumgarner to be the most valuable young stars in the game, trade-value/franchise-value wise. They’re both just entering their age 22 seasons, one is in the top 3-5 LH SP in the game, the other is a top 5-10 power hitter (and guys normally don’t show that power at 21, he’s either an early bloomer, or a true HR-record shatterer in the making).
And really, is there any reason to want to spend the entirety of his career with the Marlins? Or even 8 years of it?
Well, the Marlins ownership inking Jose Reyes for the next six seasons should be one reason (if you think there wasn’t one two days ago). While I agree that he’s got an opportunity to make a ludicrous amount on the open market, there is something to be said about financial certainty. Unfortunately, though, I can’t find much on Mike Stanton’s childhood to see if financial certainty could play a role.