“One of the reasons for Capps’ struggles may have been his increased velocity last season. According to Pitch f/x, Capps’ fastball averaged 93 mph last season. That’s down from 94.1 in 2010, and 93.5 in 2009.”
exactly. failure to factor this pick is what make this signing completely worthless. how can the twins be the top bidder when they have higher costs associated with keeping him (a pick) than anyone else? It makes no sense especially when there are a multitude of other internal and external replacement level bullpens arms that can do the same job as him. as a twins fan, i honestly couldn’t sleep last night because of this signing. it’s terrible because we forfeit a pick for no good reason.
Does anybody care that the story now is that he was pitching hurt last season? Hello? Hello?
I’m not one to buy excuses for poor seasons, but this guy did put together a nice stretch with Washington before the trade and was decently successful when he was first traded to Minnesota.
He had the lowest walk rate of his career last year and other than K’s/9 was fairly consistant with his previous stats. If you can buy the decreased K rate was due to forearm trouble, I’d much rather have Capps than Dotel or some other scrub.
And anybody who brings up Coffey as a potential closer and thinks he compares to a pre-Twins (lights out) Joe Nathan is high as kite!
Everyone in the organization is saying that Capps was pitching through injury for a good chunk of the year because the team was stretched so thin. That was a bad idea that ended badly, but it’s easy to see him returning to be an above average reliever again. It’s not a good deal, regardless, but it should be mentioned (and should have been mentioned in the article, if he was trying to conjure up ideas for Capps’ decline this year).
Comment by Craig in MN — December 6, 2011 @ 10:19 am
Todd Coffey isn’t a closer. Not at all.
But prioritizing a closer on a 99-loss club is borderline lunacy.
Glad I could be a part in this momentous occasion.
Comment by Chris Cwik — December 6, 2011 @ 10:53 am
it’s not just the pick and I have plenty of hobbies. it’s the idea that I thought maybe things might change with Bill Smith out the door, but it’s just more of the same not understanding the value of picks and replacement level. we already have about 8-9 replacement level starters that can easily do the same thing as Capps in the bullpen but we decide to forfeit more of our future. I’ve just grown so tired of dumb move after dumb move – (trading Ramos for Capps, giving up Hardy for nothing so we can have some speed at SS with Nishioka as the most recent prime examples. Yes Mauer and Morneau look like bad contracts now, but I can’t fault that because they were reasonable given what was known at the time)
You’re all failing to understand how the Twins operate. They put a premium on guys that are ‘clubhouse’ guys that give the proverbial 110% every day. Guys just like Capps, Cuddyer, Punto, etc. Those are the guys Gardy likes and both and and Ryan have always preferred a veteran with a track record to a draft pick or a younger player with potential. I’m sure some of that even goes back to Tom Kelly and his mindset. So while we can argue all day about what they should have done, it doesn’t matter. The Twins don’t operate like that. Never have. Never will.
Comment by The Answerman — December 6, 2011 @ 12:00 pm
The Twins teams that won the World Series weren’t exactly filled with lovable losers.
Comment by Notrotographs — December 6, 2011 @ 12:21 pm
I’m waiting, expectantly, for your article on this topic now.
Comment by Barkey Walker — December 6, 2011 @ 12:27 pm
I agree with d_i. This deal = Bill Smith’s bad deals live on. It might even suggest Gardy wanted a “proven closer” and went straight to Pohlad with this complaint.
That said, perhaps the pitching staff knows more than we do about what was going on with Capps in 2011. If Capps turns out okay, I’ll trust Terry Ryan quite a bit and hope they move him to permanent.
The other possibility is that Andy MacPhail comes back to Minnesota for 2012.
Comment by Barkey Walker — December 6, 2011 @ 12:37 pm
I just think good bullpen arms in general cost 2-3 million. It’s not smart, but it’s a fact. You can’t sign a bunch of descent guys and hope one sticks at closer. Sure maybe Perkins could do it, but Capps has done it, may have been injured, and isn’t new to the team which is a whole added risk.
Comment by Barkey Walker — December 6, 2011 @ 12:59 pm
Look, I didn’t mean to be a tool (okay, yeah I did), but what are the new rules anyway. If he is even slightly effective, don’t the Twins get a supplemental pick next time he’s a free agent? I don’t even think they have to offer arbitration right? So I think all they really did was put off the #40 (oh so covetted) supplemental draft pick. Maybe I’m wrong, but if they will get a pick next year and they didn’t have a great option to close next year, it seems like a descent move. The pick might even be higher if he’s good and is the draft class even very deep this year? Maybe it will be better next year anyway. Maybe they already thought of that! And maybe I’m giving them too much credit!
At least it’s not Kevin Gregg money. And let’s not talk about the high paid 6th inning guys like Soriano and Jenks. It’s one year, it’s not crazy money, and there were crap other options. I’m still wicked confused at the frustration.
Plus, JJ Hardy sucks! Pull that guy out of the non-pressure hole of Baltimore and he can’t hit a lick! And Ramos was pressumed to be useless with a healthy Mauer. They needed to trade him to help a playoff run and got a guy who was one of the best closers in the NL in that season. Hate the hindsight criticism!
When you have one of the worst pens in the league, seeing all the same faces return is somehow a “good” thing?
If anything the Twins need new faces.
Comment by Notrotographs — December 6, 2011 @ 1:42 pm
@SKob even before his breakout year this year, Hardy was a 2.5 win player for the Twins (not in the no presure situation you attribute as the cause of his success) compared to the -1.1 they got from the positiion this year. As for Ramos for Capps, a highly ranked prospect is never worthless and saying someone is one of the top closers in the NL for a year is a bit of a small sample not? I mean this is fangraphs. We had 5 previous seasons that showed he was replacement level yet the Twins picked 40 good innings and gave up a solid catching prospect for him and his “proven ability to close” only to pick up his $8 million option for being bad once he joined the Twins the next year. It isn’t hindsight as anyone paying attention said both these things at the times these trades were made and now they’re throwing good money (picks) after bad to keep this replacement level guy.