FanGraphs Baseball

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  1. great article Matthew. I was unfamiliar with tRA whilst reading this article, so I did some research and found some research done by tango tiger and dave cameron on it. tRA appears to be an even more accurate barometer than FIP of a pitcher’s true abilities. Any chance you guys add that to the player pages?

    Comment by truth — July 25, 2009 @ 3:07 am

  2. I’m just wondering where you get the tRA game-by-game data from. I’ve actually been looking for that for a long time.

    Comment by Justin — July 25, 2009 @ 4:29 am

  3. I second the request for tRA on the player pages. Preferably it could also be used in the calculation for pitcher WAR.

    Comment by daniel — July 25, 2009 @ 4:52 am

  4. Great article. I was wondering where you got the game by game swinging strike data? Brooks baseball?

    Comment by Rahul — July 25, 2009 @ 6:57 am

  5. I think you mean throwing fewer fastballs than last year (64.2% vs. 65.9%). He’s still throwing way more fastballs than his career mark (60.8%).

    Comment by cptspandex — July 25, 2009 @ 8:45 am

  6. eh… I see what you are saying. The wording is slightly confusing. He’s throwing more fastballs and better ones. Gotcha!

    Comment by cptspandex — July 25, 2009 @ 8:48 am

  7. statcorner.com

    Comment by Quinn — July 25, 2009 @ 9:33 am

  8. whoops, sorry, not game-by-game data

    Comment by Quinn — July 25, 2009 @ 9:39 am

  9. Thank you, Rob Johnson!

    I kid, I kid. But this is everything that I hoped King Felix would be. The fact that we can run him out there every five days and know that we stand a very good chance of winning is a very good thing.

    Comment by JLP — July 25, 2009 @ 10:43 am

  10. tRA uses HRs allowed and LD%, both of which have been proven to be beyond the pitcher’s control, (outside of FBs allowed) and therefore it’s not necessarily the best luck-neutral run estimator. Though FIP uses HRs allowed as well. To keep things simple it would probably be best if FanGraphs simply replaced FIP with xFIP.

    Comment by Toffer Peak — July 25, 2009 @ 11:36 am

  11. There’s also tRA* however.

    Comment by Fett42 — July 25, 2009 @ 12:37 pm

  12. cERA, right? Haha,

    Comment by Nik Aitken — July 25, 2009 @ 1:17 pm

  13. The problem with tRA* is that as of now on StatCorner it only regresses the current season stats toward the league mean. There are a few things wrong with this. HRs and LD% need to be, or should be, regressed significantly more than stats such as BBs and Ks which have been proven to be under the control of pitchers unlike HRs and LDs. Also at the beginning of each year tRA* throws away everything that it knows about a pitcher’s previous skills. Should we really be regressing Lincecum’s K rate toward the same league average as we do Carlos Silva’s?

    Comment by Toffer Peak — July 25, 2009 @ 1:36 pm

  14. Correct me if I’m wrong, but doesn’t tRA* regress numbers based on how quickly they stabilize (meaning HR and LD would be regressed more than BB and K)? I agree wholeheartedly with the second part of Toffer’s comment though – it seems as though there has to be a better way to take into account what we know about the pitcher in the regression. Wouldn’t the current method of doing artificially inflate top pitchers’ tRA*s (as they are regressed each year as though they were rookies, I think)

    Comment by Alex — July 25, 2009 @ 1:53 pm

  15. Best pitcher in baseball in my humble opinion. At least the one I’d want to build a team around. And to think he’s still younger than many of the top flight pitching prospects being called up this year.

    Comment by AT — July 25, 2009 @ 2:38 pm

  16. It’s about time Felix gets a post, he is so dominant it’s unbelievable. Long live the King!

    Comment by Josh — July 25, 2009 @ 4:02 pm

  17. I love me some King Felix. I wrote recently on my website that Felix could potentially become the best pitcher in baseball going forward over Tim Lincecum.

    Comment by Disco — July 26, 2009 @ 4:17 pm

  18. “tRA uses HRs allowed and LD%, both of which have been proven to be beyond the pitcher’s control, (outside of FBs allowed)”

    I’d be interested in this research if anyone wants to share the links. I’m pretty skeptical of the conclusions that certain results are totally “beyond the pitcher’s control”. Just because a number tends to regress towards a league wide mean does not necessarily mean a pitcher has no control over it (or that it’s actually regressing towards the league mean, each pitcher may have a slightly different mean of their own) – so it may be they have a very limited amount of control over it. I’d like to read the research before judging whether this conclusion is off base or not, though.

    I see a lot of problems with LD% in general, so you may be right that it’s not a good stat to include. My guess is there will often be balls hit where the only difference between whether it’s classified as a LD or FB is whether it happens to fall in for a hit. In those situations, rather than LD% causing hits, hits are causing LD%.

    “To keep things simple it would probably be best if FanGraphs simply replaced FIP with xFIP.”

    I’m under the impression FIP has been tested to be a better stat than xFIP. If someone thinks otherwise, I’d be interested to see the evidence.

    Comment by B — July 27, 2009 @ 10:38 am

  19. “HRs and LD% need to be, or should be, regressed significantly more than stats such as BBs and Ks which have been proven to be under the control of pitchers unlike HRs and LDs.”

    Perhaps it would be better to understand the metric more deeply rather than making false accusations which are quite frankly an insult to my intelligence.

    Comment by Graham — July 27, 2009 @ 11:29 am

  20. Graham – As I admit above I may have exaggerated to make a quick, simple point. I’ve also linked to lots of sources that have led me to these conclusions. Since you’re the creator of tRA maybe you wouldn’t mind explaining my stupidity rather than pouting? Links to previous work would be fine.

    Comment by Toffer Peak — July 27, 2009 @ 7:56 pm

  21. Well, i guess you Jinxed him by making this post, 5.2 Innings 7 earned 1BB 2k’s. Ouch for my fantasy team.

    Comment by Josh — July 27, 2009 @ 11:09 pm

  22. Being from seattle and wathing the king pitching every 5 days is a delight. Like previously said its about time he gets some press, he is a top 5 pitcher the league no doubt. GO KING

    Comment by curt — September 1, 2009 @ 2:52 pm

  23. Hernandez’s 2009 success with his fastball is the result of adding two-seam movement to it.

    Comment by morris — January 10, 2010 @ 11:11 pm

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