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  1. I believe the reliever pool will have to be segregated before any correlation will be found. I would want to see this done for closers or “back-end” rotation types, and it that case, I would even try to correlate this to Save opportunities. This assumes that save opportunities are naturally higher leverage situations, which I would tend to agree with.

    Comment by VB — December 22, 2011 @ 2:19 pm

  2. What about same-season performance?

    Comment by Cliff — December 22, 2011 @ 2:31 pm

  3. “his assumes that save opportunities are naturally higher leverage situations, ”

    I don’t think that is actually true.

    Salary is really just a proxy for perception of capability.

    Teams don’t typically pay relievers they think are crappy a lot of money. I would expect that there is a pretty decent correlation between Li and previous season ERA, Saves, or other “traditional” statistics used to measure the value of relievers, if we assume that these are the things teams are using/used to sign relievers to big contracts.

    Or maybe teams are smarter than we give them credit for, and what we should be looking at is previous season shutdowns or meltdowns, etc.

    lastly, like the poster above noted, current season performance via ERA (uugh) is likely a good candidate as well, as unlike other positions, managers seem to react pretty rapidly to performances of relievers.

    Comment by FairweatherFan — December 22, 2011 @ 3:37 pm

  4. The question becomes though, are you paying a player for his contributions to wins or for his ability to contribute? Unless higher leverage production is actually harder to find (unlike hitters), there’s no reason to adjust for leverage.

    Comment by RMR — December 22, 2011 @ 6:36 pm

  5. Take a look at all the teams who have tried to use bullpens without adjusting for leverage, and see how well that’s worked out for them.

    Comment by JimNYC — December 22, 2011 @ 8:40 pm

  6. Regardless of how a reliever performs in high leverage, no non-closer is worth what the reds just gave up for marshall.

    Comment by Shawn — December 23, 2011 @ 11:48 am

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