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  1. Tapia has a career 5.5 K/9 in short-season ball. How does that equate inducing an encouraging number of strikeouts? If anything it’s surprising he’s NOT missing more bats for a pitcher with a good arm in the lowest levels of the minors.

    Comment by NM — January 10, 2012 @ 12:27 pm

  2. Decent list but I don’t know if I’d describe the system as lacking depth. Lacking a lot of top prospects sure but they have a ton of future back end rotation, bullpen and bench types.

    Darrell Ceciliani is probably the only guy I think you’re being generous with. He’s probably not cracking top 25 on my list.

    Comment by Franco — January 10, 2012 @ 12:33 pm

  3. I love the top the this list, but after that I see a lot of disappointment carried over from the previous regime. Too much injury and attitude problems and stunted development. Sandy has his work cut out for him to turn this around, especially with new limits on amateur spending and the new slash and burn payroll the lousy owners have saddled him with. It would be great if the team went on a firesale to get some legit offensive ability in the system. I’m just concerned that nobody in the system profiles to get close to 30 homers with a respectable OBP. Seeing Theo being so aggressive for the similarly positioned Cubs makes me wish we had new owners who would give Alderson the ability to do the same. But it’s going to be a long decade here in Queens unless the Wilpons sell, the sooner the better.

    Comment by Matt W — January 10, 2012 @ 12:53 pm

  4. I wouldn’t be so quick to project Familia as a sure fire reliever when he has #2-#3 starter potential if the Mets are patient and let his change up develop.

    Comment by johnorpheus — January 10, 2012 @ 12:55 pm

  5. Here’s to hoping that Sandy has changed the minor league system so that kids stop getting rushed through.

    Comment by Matt K — January 10, 2012 @ 12:56 pm

  6. 1/4 of a season and 1.2 WAR for Zack Wheeler. That’s one Giant ouch for each of the next 10 years.

    Comment by Baltar — January 10, 2012 @ 1:00 pm

  7. He kind of already has. The rushing is a thing of the previous regime. Last season they were pretty conservative.

    Comment by NM — January 10, 2012 @ 1:21 pm

  8. Yes, we already saw this last year with almost everyone being slowed down

    Comment by Astromets — January 10, 2012 @ 1:51 pm

  9. You are correct. It was supposed to say Ground Ball Rate – and has been corrected… thanks!

    Comment by Marc Hulet — January 10, 2012 @ 2:06 pm

  10. I am a big fan of Ceciliani, so am glad to see him get some love, many people leave out the fact that he can draw walks and get on base even in a year where he did not hit for a great average. For a kid the profiles as a leadoff type, obp skills are what I look for the most.

    I think Leathersitch is a bit too high, maybe a guy like Cory Mazzoni should be in there or Darrin Gorski who does not blow guys away with arm strength, but he had a hell of a year in 2011 and has average velocity for a lefty.

    Lagares is another guy that would make my top 15, he can flat out hit and hopefully the injuries are behind him.

    Comment by Omar — January 10, 2012 @ 6:08 pm

  11. The Giants get a 1st RD and a Supplemental pick between RDs 1 & 2 for Beltran signing elsewhere. All they did was trade a little more advancement of this prospect over the one they’ll draft in his stead.

    Comment by JMN19 — January 10, 2012 @ 6:37 pm

  12. They weren’t allowed to offer him arbitration so they shouldn’t be receiving any draft picks.

    Comment by vivalajeter — January 10, 2012 @ 6:48 pm

  13. beltran has in his contract that he can’t be offered arbitration. no picks for the giants.

    Comment by timtebow — January 10, 2012 @ 8:02 pm

  14. Are Mejia’s projections hurt by his Tommy John surgery. He seemed to be projected as a possible 3 or 2 in a Major League rotation before he went down with the injury. If so, are there any indications that he won’t be able to get back on track.

    Comment by Sam — January 10, 2012 @ 9:58 pm

  15. What are your current thoughts on Aderlin Rodriguez? He was your #6 prospect prior to the 2011 season, after which he struggled badly.

    Comment by bohman — January 11, 2012 @ 7:37 am

  16. Rodriguez is still really young has potential… but, as we’ve seen with Flores, you can have all the promise in the world and still fall flat. Rodriguez needs to repeat the level in 2012, though, rather than be pushed up to high-A. He needs to tone down his aggressiveness and work on pitch recognition and selection.

    Comment by Marc Hulet — January 11, 2012 @ 8:08 am

  17. Not a Darin Gorski fan? Not really buying this year?

    Comment by Kevin — January 11, 2012 @ 7:05 pm

  18. I think I’d drop Vaughn and Leathersich there in favor of Lagares and Gorski. Their ceilings aren’t any worse and the odds of reaching them are much higher.

    Comment by acerimusdux — January 15, 2012 @ 11:01 pm

  19. Not speaking for Marc but, I think the fact that Mejia had very few innings under his belt before needing TJ surgery, had never thrown even 100 innings in a season, and had his own pitching coach (Warthen) previously raise concerns that the motion which produced that hard cutting action was potentially hard on the elbow, are all reasons to think it might be safer to develop him as a potentially elite reliever.

    Wheeler, Harvey, and Familia all have some potential as workhorse SP types though, so hopefully the greater need for Mejia will be in the pen anyway.

    Comment by acerimusdux — January 15, 2012 @ 11:29 pm

  20. This farm is better than at least half the farms out there. For sure, they lack position player depth, but there are a lot of arms here. I would say your overview is way too pessimistic, which is the narrative with anything Mets related these days. For instance, the Mets have a better farm than Philadelphia, but I would bet $100 no one ranks NYM higher than PHI in organization rankings. Watch and see.

    Comment by Matt Mosher — January 19, 2012 @ 6:54 pm

  21. I did not speak to one scout or person connected to the game that thought Cory Vaughn was a top 15 prospect in the Mets Organization. I saw over 25 ABs and I’m not convinced this kid can hit a MLB average fastball. His swing is in need of a major overhaul. I’m just very surprised he was even in the conversation for a top 10 spot. I’m also personally not a fan of Valdespin but to each his own.

    I’m glad you didn’t include Lagares or Gorski either. Upsides on either players are not great. Lagares projects as a utility outfielder and Gorski is very much at his ceiling, dominating a league he was an elder statesman in. What allows the Gorski types to exceed in the upper levels of the minors is the continued ability to keep hitters off balance.

    Otherwise, I think this was some very solid work and loved the guts you showed having Jack Leathersich ranked. Where do you have Mazzoni and Urbina? I agree with the exclusion of Aderlin. He seemed to be lost in 7 of the 9 games I caught this season. I think he pressed all season long. The skills are there. He just seemed off, all season. After watching a bunch of Appy league and Sally league games the past 3 seasons, I think talent evaluators and fans alike underestimate the move up from short season ball to full season ball.

    Comment by Chris Blessing — January 28, 2012 @ 3:56 pm

  22. I know people are going to think I’m just stirring up the pot here, but I assure you that is not my intention. I’m troubled that when considering what I call the “Big Four” pitching prospects: Familia, Harvey, Mejia, and Wheeler we constantly see the white guys as starters and the latinos as bullpen arms. I suspect a subconscious bias. Here and on other lists.

    Comment by Andy — January 28, 2012 @ 6:23 pm

  23. Bias….these latinos didn’t have the proper nutrition when they were young children and that’s why there muscle and joints break down faster…hello duh

    Comment by ken thompson — January 28, 2012 @ 9:12 pm

  24. It was the prior regime and Tony Bernazard in particular who tried to rush these guys. I don’t see this regime doing the same thing.
    However, I also don’t see this regime signing 36 year old free agents (Moises Alou, Shawn Greene etc) to block the path of the young guys, even if they could afford it. So I would now expect to see these players moving through the system on a somewhat normal path. And I would expect even the guys who don’t fall on the prospect lists (think Duda and Gee) get a shot at the big league level when their performance warrants it. And that NEVER happened in the Minaya years.

    Comment by John — January 29, 2012 @ 9:00 am

  25. II find that rather far fetched. Keep in mind that aseball is a business with starting pitching a premium such that talent capable of dominating as starters are going to be groomed there unless extenuating circumstances such as an already stacked rotation or poor mechanics will point them to relieving either for the short or long-term.

    Regarding Mejia, he does have faulty arm mechanics and Mets pitching coach Dan Warthen was/is right on the mark questioning the wisdom of continuing to have him start when he’s not ideal for the role. Given the faulty mechanics, I was not the least bit surprised he sustained major injury requiring surgery after sustaining lessor ones that sent him to the DL.. If his mechanics continue as the way they were before, and is used as starter, I’d say the chances are good for another major injury.

    As for Familia, all signs point to him continuing to be groomed as starter. There’s very little rumbling amongst Mets leadership that deems otherwise other than the every once in a while we’ll hear something about grooming him for closer, but most all points to starter.

    Comment by LongTimeFan — January 30, 2012 @ 1:00 am

  26. Different circumstance now than when Greene and Alou were acquired. The Mets were serious contenders at the time of those acquisitions needing some vets to solidify their chances whereas now, this team is in rebuild mode giving youngsters greater playing time.

    Comment by LongTimeFan — January 30, 2012 @ 1:06 am

  27. For Familia, it has more to do with his Change Up than anything else. It’s not a latino thing. He has always struggled with his change up, experimenting with different grips and such. A change would do wonders for his long term prospects of being a starter.

    As for Mejia, it has more to do with his statue and the torque his arm generates over everything else. The belief here is that as a starter this torque problem make Mejia less durable over time. A kid like Erik Goeddel in the Mets minor league system is a great example of a kid who has the same difficulties staying healthy due to violent torque. Torque is why most prospect observers see Arodys Vizcaino as a reliever, even though, stuff wise, he’s the Braves best prospect. Arodys has made some adjustments to reduce his torque but it’s not enough for the fears of future injury to be lessen.

    Wheeler and Harvey have the build, the mechanics and the varying speed/varying eye level pitches to succeed as major league starters. That is why they are ranked ahead of the other 2 guys.

    Comment by Chris Blessing — January 30, 2012 @ 2:46 pm

  28. Yeah, it sure was fortunate the Minaya regime gave Shawn Greene and his .782 OPS, 10 HR bat almost 500 at bats in 2007. Without him how might the Mets’ season have gone? (point taken about veterans vs. prospects, LTF, but still …)

    Comment by Still bitter — February 12, 2012 @ 1:58 pm

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