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  1. Good read.

    Comment by Cody — January 3, 2012 @ 9:20 am

  2. Looking at the scatter plot for Quentin’s home runs, it doesn’t look like he’ll be hurt too badly. Alonso’s sample size is too small to say much of anything.

    Comment by jwb — January 3, 2012 @ 10:22 am

  3. that’s a great point about alonso. given that the wOBA split isn’t extreme despite the significant HR suppression for lefties, he would seem to be the perfect target–a lefty hitter who doesn’t need to hit HR to reach his fullest value.

    Comment by gomer — January 3, 2012 @ 10:34 am

  4. i know this isn’t relevant to your article, per se, but does UZR adjust for park effects? i’m wondering because i’ve read in a number of forums that quentin’s defense was mitigated by US Cell’s dimensions and will be exasperbated by the larger dimensions of Petco.

    Comment by gomer — January 3, 2012 @ 10:41 am

  5. Good points.

    Does anyone know how Stat Corner calculates their PFs? I.e. Time period, specific calcs, etc.

    Comment by aladou — January 3, 2012 @ 10:43 am

  6. I like the article, good read.

    Comment by piratesbreak500 — January 3, 2012 @ 11:05 am

  7. The 59 PF for LH is ricdiculous. Have Padres ever considered moving the RF fences in? I would think it would make very difficult to sign a LH FA. The talent pool that is available to them is much smaller than the normal team.

    Comment by Jack Thomas — January 3, 2012 @ 11:10 am

  8. I commented on his defense yesterday… it’s not just PETCO, but I believe Coors Field, AT&T and Chase Field all have some of the larger OF dimensions. If he stays healthy, I think he can provide enough offense to compensate for any defensive shortcomings (Maybin’s range/defense in CF could also help compensate), but his track record is he won’t stay healthy.

    Comment by James — January 3, 2012 @ 11:14 am

  9. Good points. Of course Adrian Gonzalez’s offense didn’t suffer too much in Petco, as he’s also an all fields hitter. While a better hitter than Alonso will likely be, they do have similar styles.

    Comment by DD — January 3, 2012 @ 11:24 am

  10. I think this is a great article and convinces me that the Padres have figured out what type of hitter they want to acquire.

    However, I think you’re slightly mistating your opponent’s conclusion when you say: “It’s easy/lazy to criticize any deal in which the Padres acquire a hitter by citing Petco’s park effects without digging a little deeper. The Padres have done as much, and are acquiring talent that fits their ballpark.”

    Just as it would be appropriate to evaluate an Oakland pitcher differently, when changing teams, depending on whether he was a GB pitcher or a FB pitcher, shouldn’t we consider that Quentin’s ISOs have come in a park that was (very) favorable to the type of hitter he is? According to Stat Corner, US Cell was 98 (vs 72 for Petco) for doubles and 138 (vs 95) for HR.

    And while I know he had an extreme 2011 split that favored his away games, he actually had a similar extreme splits in 2010 and 2009 that favored his home park (and in 08 as well, though not nearly as extreme).

    I feel like without mentioning the US Cell part of Quentin’s record, you leave yourself open to the criticism that you’re inappropriately conceiving Quentin’s true talent level, which weakens your conclusion somewhat that Quentin’s ability is a good match for Petco.

    Comment by cable fixer — January 3, 2012 @ 11:25 am

  11. I would just like to note they had the worst K% along with the worst ISO in the majors last year. Improving those two areas would seem to go a long way in bringing the offense to a respectable level. Quentin appears to be an improvement in those areas relative to what they ran out there last year at the corners.

    It would be interesting to see how a contact/speed guy (e.g., Jose Reyes) would be affected by playing there over the course of a full season.

    Comment by James — January 3, 2012 @ 11:29 am

  12. Check Adrian’s home/road splits again… he was consistently worse at home.

    Comment by James — January 3, 2012 @ 11:32 am

  13. Very well done

    Comment by Jeff — January 3, 2012 @ 11:36 am

  14. Of course he was worse. The article says we should accept some decline from their true talent. What I mean is he would have been MUCH worse if his hitting style was that of, say, Ryan Howard. He had at least a .340 wOBA 4 of the last 5 years he played in Petco, plus at least a .158 ISO, which is more than respectable considering the environment discussed in the article.

    Comment by DD — January 3, 2012 @ 11:48 am

  15. Sign Juan Piere!

    Comment by DD — January 3, 2012 @ 11:49 am

  16. do you mean exasterbated?

    Comment by hbar — January 3, 2012 @ 12:23 pm

  17. Agreed. There really have been too many articles regarding this trade that basically say ‘Pads acquire slugging OF … he will hit fewer HR in Petco … = bad trade’. As noted, they can’t just punt on offense.

    However, if you want to criticize a seemly rebuilding team for acquiring a semi-expensive one year rental with an injury history … that is more than fair.

    Comment by Cap — January 3, 2012 @ 12:51 pm

  18. Looking at those park-effect numbers, I think you should have discussed how Petco hinders doubles as well. 86 for LHB and 72 for RHB? That’s brutal. You noted that Alonso is more of a doubles, opposite-field hitter. Wouldn’t that put him in the same category as a right-handed pull hitter? It seems to me (and I could very well be wrong about this) that a LHB with opposite-field doubles power will actually struggle in Petco. I wouldn’t be surprised if Alonso struggles mightily at home.

    Comment by Josh — January 3, 2012 @ 12:56 pm

  19. Nevermind. I looked at the dimensions and realized that I had been a bit mixed up in thinking about how Alonso’s power would play out. He is a decent fit for the park.

    Comment by Josh — January 3, 2012 @ 1:00 pm

  20. do you mean does he mean exacerbated?

    Comment by aladou — January 3, 2012 @ 1:09 pm

  21. I think the problem arises when Alonso thinks he SHOULD be hitting more home runs and decides to change his swing/approach. Home-runs being as over-exaggerated as they are (especially in arbitration), someone in the Padres managerial hierarchy better be telling this kid it’s okay to be James Loney in this park and not Mark Reynolds.

    Comment by Ben — January 3, 2012 @ 1:25 pm

  22. PETCO is one of those parks where the outfield fence is connected to the stands and has a scoreboard attached to it. (in both left and right) I really don’t think the fence could be moved in without some major alteration to the seating.

    Comment by Hurtlockertwo — January 3, 2012 @ 1:29 pm

  23. yes. exactly right.

    Comment by gomer — January 3, 2012 @ 3:07 pm

  24. As a devoted Padre fan and very infrequent commenter, but avid, daily reader, let me just say that this article is DEAD ON. JUST DEAD ON. On one hand people are quick to point out the Padres’ futility on offense. Then, in the same breath we see criticism of hitting acquisitions. Extremism has reigned in the evaluation of the Padres on offense, so it is nice to see measured moderation.

    Comment by Mustard n Brown — January 3, 2012 @ 6:45 pm

  25. this is kind of right. fast forward to the 2012 offseason and matt cain gets 20 MM/year. among the xFIP vs FIP discussions, someone will write about the park effects for HR (esp if he goes to toronto)…and that’s completely warranted, no? quentin has been helped by his park more than cain has, right?

    still, there are plenty of reasons to dislike (or like) this deal that don’t include a discussion of park effects.

    Comment by jcxy — January 4, 2012 @ 10:29 am

  26. As the guy who bought Alonso and Quentin in Tout Wars this weekend, I’m betitng that you’re right.

    Comment by Mike G — March 27, 2012 @ 10:51 am

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