After checking Heisey’s splits, he’s absolutely horrible vs LHP, hitting .180 in 150 AB. Maybe he has some history in the minors of lefty-mashing, but considering he so far has his major-league RHP better, it doesn’t seem like Heisey’s a platoon option.
Comment by lexomatic — January 13, 2012 @ 12:33 pm
No I’m kidding. I wouldn’t take Jason Bay for free these days.
Only 25 more years left for us on his contract, right?
I’m leaning towards that too, though part of me thinks they’re not too far off in value. The Rockies have expressed an interest in adding pitching (or fixing their crappy 2b situation). Between Blackmon, Wheeler, and Colvin in the OF and Arenado, Chris Nelson, and Casey Blake, I don’t see how Frazier really fits in…
Comment by Resolution — January 13, 2012 @ 12:48 pm
OK, I’m a slow learner but getting so that I can anticpate the proper responses.
Agreed the reverse platoon split, especially given the sample, isn’t telling us much. I also agree that Smith might be a pretty good pick up.
I wouldn’t make it a strict platoon, and give Heisey some of the at bats against righties. While a reverse split isn’t likely, he has hit righties pretty well, and even if that comes down and balances out, he doesn’t seem to have much issue there and just starting against lefties may hold him back.
Even with the issues with Ks and walks in the majors thus far, that’s only about a season worth of PAs by age 26. He has a bit of a chance of improving. At age 23 in high A (admittedly a bit older than a top prospect) his walk rate was 11.1% and k rate 13.4%. He sacrificed some power (.151 iso) but that may have been FSL influenced (I think that’s where Cincy’s A+ team plays. His wRC+ was 140s.
In half season at AA at 24 his walk rate and k rate were balanced, 10.8%/10.8%, with no power let up (.225 iso). wRC+ 182.
I wouldn’t expect that in the majors at 27-28, but he might approach it if he improves, and basically we’re talking about a guy just starting his second full major league season based on his career PAs. And even dismissing reverese platoon splits, the majority of his PAs have been against righties and there he’s at a .288/.346/.539 clip. With good d and speed (Smith seems like he is ok in the field, has actually some good uzr years, and he doesn’t seem especially slow), I wouldn’t want him just getting, what would it be, 1/4 or so of LF plate appearances.
He’s probably the player you describe, but he might get a little better.
Quick question, if the sample BABIP is .289 and they have the same GB% as Heisey, why should we expect Heisey to get 9% fewer hits on balls in play. I mean we’re talking about basically 1 hit per 100 balls in play, but I’m curious to see why you chose .280 over .289.
As another commenter mentioned, I think Heisey could be better than we’ve seen, but I’m mostly banking on the fact that he has had a large number of pinch hitting appearances and irregular starts. There may be something to the idea that by giving him more regular run he will perform better.
Dave S., I looked for the minor league splits info, so thanks.
Also, like I said, slow learner, but i guess I was cherry-picking his good walk/k seasons. His career minor league walk rate was 8.46% and k rate 14%. In AAA (about only a half season spread over 3 years) it was 5.6% bb rate (ugh) and 19% k rate.
His career walk rate in the minors seems in line with the majors with a slight falloff to be expected. Looks like he could lower the k rate a tad, which may mean sacrificing some power but may be just cutting down on the uppercut with 2 strikes. It seems like he decided to go for the power as he progressed, but in 2008-9 in A+ and AA it looked like he both had walk rate and k rate balanced roughly with power. he may have that extra tad of development left at the major league level.
I think a traditional platoon setup could improve so many teams and is extremely under utilized as a strategy to improve team weaknesses. I hear proposals all the time where teams could improve production at a postion by employing a cost effective platoon yet in reality few teams seem to employ the platoon anymore. I’d love to see a study of the evolution of certain in-game and team building strategies employed throughout the years. Platoon usage would definitely be one I am interested in.
Comment by Billion Memes — January 13, 2012 @ 2:04 pm
The Jays have some expendable LH OF. Both Thames and Snider probably could be had for the right price. Do you think they would fit with the Reds?
Comment by VagabondBansal — January 13, 2012 @ 2:10 pm
I’d rather go for Damon than Smith…they’ve already liquidated too much of the farm for another trade.
I think one reason for the reduction in platoons is the expansion in pitching staffs. Since the 1980’s, platooning hitters has been replaced by platooning relief pitchers. LOOGYs have done 2 things to inhibit batting platoons – they have reduced the number of hitters on each team (it is now typically 13, where teams used to carry 15 or 16), and made platoon hitters less effective, as the opposing manager will simply sub in a “wrong handed” pitcher.
Of course, platoons were underused in the 1980’s and earlier, so that isn’t the only reason.
Comment by RoastBeefKazenzakis — January 13, 2012 @ 2:17 pm
You provide some real food for thought.
I don’t have any facts to support it, but I am under the impression that teams do not platoon nearly enough.
Part of “conventional wisdom” seems to be that it’s better to have one player play a position every day. As in all things, a manager who bucks conventional wisdom takes a risk.
The Rockies in particular adopted a plan last offseason to stop platooning, and that exposed the weaknesses of players such as Smith and Stewart. Yet, I am not aware that their management took any heat for that decision.
Fukudome might make a decent second option behind Smith, if Jocketty doesn’t want to (over)pay with prospect, ready-made pitching, or cheaper alternatives:
— As a platoon partner for Heisey, he’s less likely to wear down in June
— His glove should play well in LF, as he’s a plus glove in RF (according to UZR)
— In a pinch, he’s a… serviceable third CF option
— A career 344 wOBA v. RH pitching
— Fukudome isn’t allergic to BBs and, batting in front of Votto and Bruce, would allow Stubbs to bat lower in the order, keeping his anemic obp down where it’s more acceptable (sixth/ seventh in in the order)
— Too, as Heisey hits RH well, this may also allow Baker to sit Stubbs against the tough ones (y’know, those that throw any kind of breaking ball at all) in order to play an OF of Fukudome, Heisey, and Bruce
Comment by Scrap Irony — January 13, 2012 @ 2:32 pm
For the Jays, in any deal with the Reds, the right price is probably Votto. Toronto will wait until halfway through the season when the Reds are underperforming and looking to cut costs and start the rebuild process, and then they’ll make a deal.
That’s the plan, anyway. Now, the Reds just have to play along…
I’d consider Todd Frazier an OF option, and list their OF depth chart on the 40-man as 5 players. Frazier played mostly 3B at AAA and the majors last year, but spent most of his time in LF in 2009-2001.
Bruce-Stubbs-Heisey. Then Frazier, and Phipps.
Still, I agree that there is no depth there, and they’re in a jam at first sign of injury or if Heisey wouldn’t work out. But, I’d make a play at LHB Fukudome in the FA market before trading Frazier for Smith.
Anyway… that suggests Dave C is correct, and that Heisey really is NOT a reverse platoon player, and that his performance vs LHP should revert to his true talent level given enough playing time.
My suggestion then would be… let him play full time if you really believe that is true. Because he’s already proven the ability to hit RHP at a pretty good level. No real need for a platoon, unless you feel his MLB stats vs RHP are a bit of a mirage and are due for some regression.
One of the great teams of all time, the ’86 Mets, used a couple of true platoons and about 4 semi-platoons.
Backman/Teufel at 2b. Teufel 70 starts as a righty, Backman 92 mostly batting lefty as a switch-hitter. Teufel got a few starts against righties it seems.
Dykstra/Mookie Wilson in cf. Wilson 53 starts in center batting righty as a switch-hitter, Dykstra 100 starts batting left.
Mookie also got 27 starts in left field, this time mostly batting lefty, platooning with the corpse of George Foster (or maybe mostly that was after Foster went to the Chisox). Foster got 62 starts in left. Kevin Mitchell got 26 starts in left also, batting righty. Danny Heep got 39 starts in left, batting lefty.
Ray Knight wasn’t really platooned at 3b, as he started 130 games batting right. Hojo started 29 games at 3b as a switch batting left. Mitchell started 3 games at 3b. So Knight wasn’t platooned, but he got a lot of rest, more than a regular normally would (maybe he got injured; I know he started a big fight with his old team, the Reds that year).
Something that really jars my memory, Kevin Mitchell also started 20 games at ss. And Hojo started 22 games at ss. Rafael santana started 111 games.
That’s 3 straightforward platoons and 2 other semi-platoons (but not strictly lefty/righty), with 3 guys platooning at 2 spots (Mitchell at lf and ss, smattering at 3b, where he started for Giants most of one season, Hojo at 3b and ss, and Mookie in cf and lf). Three switch-hitters (Backman, Wilson and Hojo). Nine guys altogether, and once Foster left, 8 of them pretty good at their jobs that year (Backman, Teufel, Heep, Wilson, Dykstra, Mitchell, Hojo, Knight). Hojo, Mitchell and Dykstra had much better career years ahead, Teufel also had a great year in ’87 or ’88 as a platoon guy.
Extremely versatile team, and what talent, especially when you realize Strawberry, Hernandez and Carter were the stars, along with the starting staff, Gooden, Darling, Ojeda and El Squid Sid Hernandez (before Cone was on the scene and his big ’88).
Bit of an underachieving team considering, with Gooden and Straw and some of field issues, although with Doc I think his arm got royally abused young. I think he pitched more innings when he was 20 in his second season in ’85 than any pitcher other than some Hough and Clemens seasons; and his k rate already fell significantly that year from his first year. I’d be doin’ coke too to forget about my aching arm. So sad to hear he was coked up for the victory parade day after the world series. What a powerful drug.
The real downfall of that team was maybe dumping Dykstra for Samuel and getting rid of Mitchell on top of the early fade for the stars.
Davey Johnson loved to platoon. A real proto-sabr manager in the Earl Weaver walks and power mold (and played for Earl).
The Johnson Mets had quite arun, if only 1 world series.
1984 6 1/2 games back of Cubs in 2nd, but Cubs pythag. record was only 1 game better than Mets record (who actually were sub 500 in pythag that year).
1985 Mets, 2nd to Cards, but better phythag.
1986 1st by wide margin and ws.
1987 2nd to cards but better pythag.
1988 1st by wide margin and probably best team, lost to Dodgers.
1989 2d to Cubs, but better pythag.
1990 2nd to Pirates but better pythag.
Six years in a row with best pythag in a tough NL east that had some quite good Cards and Cubs teams and Pirates later on.
Excuse this Mets fan while I go cry. Eh, who am i kidding. 2006-2008 wasn’t all long ago or all that bad. Nor 1999-2001. Beats the hell outta 1974-1983.
wobatus, nice retelling of those Mets years. They were certainly the team to beat in the NL over that period. When you list their season finish, you put a lot of ‘but better pythag’s in there. Doesnt underperforming your pythag imply that you might have underachieved? If so, were all those platoon splits that effective?
If I’ve misunderstood what you said, my apologies.
Why not? Dude will come cheap, especially if he believes that he will be an every day player (which is a must in his quest for 3,000 career hits); he’s durable; he’s considered to have tremendous “intangibles;” he can be presented to the fan base (and to his teammates, as well, I suppose) as a “veteran leader with championship experience.” He’s going to be league average, at best, in LF, but if he’s willing to sign a one-year deal for, say, $2-$3 mil, he’s highly likely to earn his contract.
Why not? I don’t feel he is a viable option in left field any more. He was “average at best” 2 years ago, and has played very little LF in the past 2 seasons. Last year 11 of 144 starts were in the outfield. The other 133 were at DH.
Bstar, I went a little off-topic in that ramble. But basically the Davey Johnson Mets saw a lot of platooning. They did quite well with that strategy overall. Maybe they underachieved, but I doubt that was due to platooning, and the fact they had better pythag records yet finished behind cards, cubs and pirates is likely mostly random. They consistently won 90+ games, their opponents outperformed their own pythags, but Johnson always put out the best team to put them into position to win (with the players Cashen et al provided him).
Platoons are tricky in today’s world of 12-man, and occasionally 13-man, pitching staffs. Your team barely has enough subs on offense as is, and in the NL you need some guys to pinch hit for the pitchers . . . all of which means teams would undoubtedly prefer regulars over platoons.
There are also all kinds of logistical reasons why a strict platoon is not as easy as it seems. The two players in the platoon will often have such different skill sets (e.g. defense, speed, stealing ability) that there’s a lot to consider before you yank player A for player B because the opposition changed the handedness of its pitcher.
Exactly. This article, from the beginning, seems to ignore that the weakest OFer in Cincy may in fact be Drew Stubbs and not Chris Heisey. Stubbs has speed and a great glove . . . which screams 4th OFer to me, no? Great guy to come in to pinch run and then play D when you are ahead, spot start here and there, or fill in while someone is on the DL.
At least on my team, Chris Heisey starts over Drew Stubbs.
Chris Heisey hit .271 and 17 HR against righties. Against lefties it was another story: .197 and 1HR. Sounds like the Reds need an OF that can hit lefties.
Would that be Seth Smith? Nope. Let’s see the stats and see who among the available outfielders are a good platoon with Heisey.
Seth Smith .217 last year; .213 over the last 3yrs.
Ankiel – .228 last year; .215 over the last 3 yrs.
Ludwick – .264 last year; .241 over the last 3 yrs.
Juan Pierre – .329 last year; .314 over the last 3 yrs.
Fukudome – .262 last year; .238 over the last 3 yrs.
Cody Ross – .234 last year; .272 over the last 3 yrs.
Todd Frazier – .360 last year in 25 AB; no record over 3 yrs.
The only one who is consistent against lefties and would make a good platoon with Heisey is Juan Pierre. Plus he might be able to lead off which the Reds could use,.
Heisey is basically Stubbs before he was exposed. Here are the two players through their first 534 big league PA, which is how many Heisey has now:
Stubbs – .250/.316/.429, 13-2B, 5-3B, 21 HR, 46 BB, 142 K, 27 SB, 7 CS
Heisey – .254/.316/.465, 19-2B, 2-3B, 26 HR, 35 BB, 135 K, 7 SB, 2 CS
Stubbs walked & struck out slightly more, Heisey has 17 more total bases. For all intents & purposes, they’re the same hitter. But given that Stubbs is an excellent defender in CF, I’d much rather have him than Heisey, who I think is going to start looking bad with regular playing time.