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  1. I mentioned this in another post, there is a top 10 Prospect link that is more recent. The link you provided should be tossed.

    Comment by Sully — January 17, 2012 @ 3:15 pm

  2. Great article/analysis, and my thanks to ye.

    I think that Gallardo is the best comp because the Nationals are hoping for Jordan Zimmermann (@2.3MM in ’12) and Stephen Strasburg to each be ace material. This does signal that, however the excellent prospects they dealt pan out, Gio will be (they hope) making the trade worthwhile for a very long time to come.

    Comment by Well-Beered Englishman — January 17, 2012 @ 3:20 pm

  3. i believe his two option years are worth a combined $24mm

    Comment by MC — January 17, 2012 @ 3:22 pm

  4. Agreed, the list is out of date – although his point (that the Nationals dealt two of their top three prospects) is arguably still accurate. Although Hulett’s November list had Cole at #3 and Peacock at #7, he put a lot of faith in the 2011 draft class, a class that hasn’t had much professional experience (outside of Purke, who was merely OK in the AFL, no experience at all). I’d have had no trouble with a list that had Cole and Peacock at the #2 and #3 spot in either order.

    Comment by John C. — January 17, 2012 @ 3:35 pm

  5. While I imagine the super two makes a pretty big difference, the second club option is pretty big deal too no? He exchanged his future right to free agency by a year in exchange for some present day value. The Nat’s essentially paid $X million dollars for the right to have a 2nd club option at the end of his contract.

    Comment by Gary — January 17, 2012 @ 3:39 pm

  6. “and the hype over his strikeouts and shiny, Coliseum-aided ERA may have inflated his cost a touch.”

    Perhaps. Then again the difference in park factor between the Coliseum and Nationals Park is negligible: .947 (20th in MLB) versus .955 (18th in MLB). What’s more, as MLB Network pointed out, Gio’s record versus the NL is pretty good: he averaged 7 innings per start and his WHIP and ERA were both 0.94.

    Granted, it’s a small sample (4 starts) and things could go south but I think that the talk about the impact of moving from the Coliseum to Nationals Park is overstated.

    FYI, someone did an analysis of the possible impact on Gonzalez from a smaller foul territory at Nationals Park. His results were posted at a chat with Tom Boswell. Here’s the link:

    Comment by Roberto — January 17, 2012 @ 6:41 pm

  7. I believe he has one of the best breaking balls in baseball. I think, from watching him against the Giants, he must be very hard to pick up or something as well. NL hitters seem a little mystified. Oh well, film will cure that.

    Comment by channelclemente — January 17, 2012 @ 8:43 pm

  8. probably right about the park effects.

    Comment by kick me in the GO NATS — January 17, 2012 @ 8:44 pm

  9. He’s only made 9 of his 89 career starts against NL teams. Those 9 starts are over a span of 3 seasons and include 3 matchups against the Giants. The stats are kind of interesting, but have about zero predictive value.

    Comment by 123 — January 17, 2012 @ 8:46 pm

  10. Any idea how much his walk rate will decrease since he gets to see a pitcher every 9 AB? Or will it stay relatively the same because, say there’s a runner on second and 2 outs, 8th spot up, you likely int walk the 8 man and face the pitcher. Also, is there a stat or a study that looks at those types of walks, as in, if he does have the same amount of walks, but some are ‘smart’ walks, he’s a more productive pitcher.

    Comment by Antonio Bananas — January 17, 2012 @ 9:51 pm

  11. Gio for Johan Santana, straight up?

    Comment by Brian — January 18, 2012 @ 7:45 am

  12. Rendon wasn’t a top-3 versus two of Milone, Peacock, Cole and Norris? I find that a stretch.

    Comment by Will H. — January 18, 2012 @ 3:18 pm

  13. didnt the mets learn their lesson with oliver perez?

    Comment by Antonio Bananas — January 18, 2012 @ 5:13 pm

  14. 3.50 Era, 9.2 k/9, 3.8 bb/9, 200 ip over the next 5 seasons.

    I think that is a fairly reasonable (a bit optimistic maybe) expectation of Gio in the NL during his prime years.

    That is a very valuable pitcher. (3.5 – 4.5 WAR i would guess)

    Comment by Matty Brown — January 18, 2012 @ 6:18 pm

  15. I don’t think his K/9 stays that way. Maybe next year, but I think by year 3 it’ll be down to about 7.5 or 8, then by year 5 maybe as low as 6.

    Comment by Antonio Bananas — January 19, 2012 @ 4:50 am

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