Interesting now that i reflect though. With the fielder and Jackson negotiations nowhere near where we thought and Wilson signing on the low end of his projected payday is it possible we are finally seeing a market correction for good not brest players? Sabathia, hamels etc are gonna get top dollar but maybe going forward guys with ANY question marks(fielder,Cain,grienke,) and guys who offer little star upside are not going to continue to get semi speculative mega deals.
Or maybe its just the phillies, red sod, angels and Yankees for one reason or another based on $$and or roster construction were nit involved with these hugs effectively devastating the market for them. Next year with Sanchez, Cain, marcum and grirnke should be very interesting. Hamels is getting a mega deal. The others? Who knows.
I think this is mostly an example of a guy’s reputation hurting him. He’s bounced around the last few years without much of a perceived impact on the various teams he’s joined. People also remember him as the super prospect and still look at the radar gun readings while he pitches and wonder how a guy with this much talent can’t break through. He’s also been around for awhile, so even though he’s 28 and still in his prime, I don’t think anyone expects improvement going forward. Boras probably hasn’t changed his demands either and we don’t know what he’s asking for (probably more than he’s worth). I’m waiting for Boras to start screaming collusion since his clients aren’t having the best off-season (which could change quickly if Fielder inks his assumed mega deal).
If teams were to take an objective look at Jackson they’d probably be willing to invest 4 years for a 3 win per year pitcher. I think what’s happening is that teams are willing to overspend on perceived stars, but the ones that fall somewhere in the middle aren’t commanding WAR dollars. I agree that a one year deal would be foolish and would not be a benefit to the player unless the offers coming his way are truly insulting.
that’s what was crossing my mind- that, and the fact that his results don’t match his stuff (high velocity, pitch to contact- he looks like he should be a strikeout machine, with the ability to hit 96-98). He seemed inconsistent young- perception doesn’t seem to match reality.
Comment by fly eli and tony plush — January 24, 2012 @ 1:02 pm
I bet the Royals and Pirates would love to get E-Jax in their rotation for 10 mil a season. How much of it is that he doesn’t want to play for a crappy team (a la Prince and Seattle)?
Comment by Clark Addison — January 24, 2012 @ 2:13 pm
Look at Jackson’s ERA by year since 2008: 5.76, 4.42, 3.62, 4.47, 3.79. Yes, he has been solid all around the past 3 years, but it doesn’t surprise me that teams aren’t willing to offer up a long term commitment, especially when the large market teams don’t really have any more money to spend this off-season (Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies, Mets, Dodgers, Giants, Angels, etc.). I think he could still get something like 3 years/$36 million, but that’s about it.
Jackson should be a cautionary tale for good-but-not-great players that it is possible to price oneself out-of-the-market with initial demands. GM’s determined that committing $75M over 5 years was too much, particularly since so many better young arms figure to be free agents next year.
Also, given his disasterous (by ERA) stint with Arizona, Jackson’s ERA progression perhaps looked a little too similar to a former Dodger from ten years ago, Chan Ho Park (who signed $65M over 5 years with Texas).
1. The teams that currently have the money, and the short-term rotation holes, have some interesting pitching prospects that are just about to break out. Not so much a matter of worrying that Jackson would block said prospects; just that the money could be spent elsewhere to get much the same value.
The Mariners might be one example. The M’s could invest in Jackson now… but they have Paxton, Hultzen and Walker coming within the next couple years. That money might be better spent on some premium players to shore up areas where the farm has no true saviors coming for several years. There are multiple chances for +3 win players from their farm’s pitching in the next few years. Not necessarily from say, the next crop of home-grown M’s outfielders.
2. He might have some rep around character, clubhouse or other intangibles that just make people worry (irrationally) that he’s going to go all Zambrano on them. Note that I am not casting aspersions on him at all and have no anecdotal evidence here. For all I know he’s a sweet, puppy-loving, help-old-ladies-cross-the-street kind of fellow.
I’m just saying that if there’s no rational, objective reason to be found, by looking at the same data that anyone else can – i.e. multiple front offices with full-time, presumably smart statisticians, scouts and other analysts – there might be something else that you don’t get from just his numbers.
I’ve never understood why being traded 5 times is necessarily a bad thing. Sure, it could mean that 5 teams were disappointed in him and wanted to get rid of him. But it could also mean that 5 teams coveted him and wanted to acquire him.
Top prospect Anthony Rizzo has now been with 3 teams in the past year or so. But is it because they all gave up on him, or because Jed Hoyer loves him so much that he’s now acquired him 3 times?
Comment by vivalajeter — January 24, 2012 @ 3:38 pm
I think its really a bunch of small issues coupled with the market not being there.
– His ERA’s haven’t been great
– he’s been traded so many times
– People don’t believe there is any upside (people need to value Jackson as an innings eater not a top of the rotation guy)
With that being said, if a guy like Randy Wolf can get 3/30 I don’t see why you wouldn’t give Jackson a similar deal. He’s been worth over 3 WAR the past 3 seasons and it wouldn’t be a bad deal even if he only produced 2 WAR.
I hope Cherington pulls a Theo and goes up to the big office to explain why this should happen despite the luxury tax. I’d much prefer Jackson to Oswalt. Based on past results of all parties considered, EJ would start the season as our No. 4 starter and at various times of the season cycle through being our best to fifth-best guy going. But at least we know, as much as you can ever know these things, that he’d be out there giving six innings.
I don’t get why the Royals wouldn’t want him. He eats innings and pitches well. Sanchez/Jackson, and then if you want to get crazy with the dreaming, add Oswalt. That’s not a bad front 3 with the young guys/older guys who used to be primising and young (Hochevar) fighting for the last 2 spots. With that bullpen and that lineup? Come on now.
Or even the Cardinals. Waino is coming off TJ and Carp is ancient. Jackson would be a great guy to have while you wait for/if Miller/Martinez/Jenkins develop into something while the rest of the rotation rots away because they’re old. Helps preserve the pen a little too.
Comment by Antonio Bananas — January 24, 2012 @ 7:18 pm
Given what Boras just pulled off for Prince, isn’t is reasonable to think he’s got some aces up his sleeve for Jackson too? I expect some “mystery team” will overpay Jackson in the next week or so.