FanGraphs Baseball

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  1. Seems a little low for Carter. I think he’s moving up strong this year. Big guy, big fastball… lots to like here.

    Comment by alskor — August 5, 2009 @ 1:09 pm

  2. He has a good fastball but questionable secondary stuff, and control issues… and he’s old for the league – yet neither the Sox nor the Padres have promoted him past low-A. I have to see him perform at a higher level before I am comfortable rating him higher. Right now, he’s an older prospect beating up on younger players. The talent is there, though, to move up in value very quickly.

    Comment by Marc — August 5, 2009 @ 1:36 pm

  3. Are you seriously going to rank Steve Johnson in the top 14? Or have you left him out completely?

    Comment by Tim — August 5, 2009 @ 2:09 pm

  4. Why do this over five days? Do you really need to stretch content that badly?

    Comment by KMils — August 5, 2009 @ 2:19 pm

  5. I’m pretty sure you missed the 2 prospects that the Nationals traded for Joe Beimel. I’m not surprised that you guys forgot. You have a bias against teams on the east coast.

    Comment by pm — August 5, 2009 @ 2:31 pm

  6. If Mauricio Robles was “the key to the Washburn trade, then why is he ranked lower than Luke French?

    Comment by Joseph Honeysuckle — August 5, 2009 @ 2:37 pm

  7. PS PM, Joe Beimel sucks

    Comment by Joseph Honeysuckle — August 5, 2009 @ 2:42 pm

  8. He isn’t. French is at No. 30.

    Comment by Teej — August 5, 2009 @ 2:44 pm

  9. I never said he didn’t. But, actually he is quite solid. He had a 1.69 ERA and 0.975 WHIP in the season if you take out his injury plagued May. My problem is that it looks like Fangraphs will forget to list the prospects that the Nats got in return for Beimel.

    Comment by pm — August 5, 2009 @ 3:15 pm

  10. I’m starting to question how we’re valuing prospects here. Luke French is not a special ball player, no doubt. But isn’t a guy who’s shown that he can throw in the majors, has made it through all levels in the minors, without injury, simply a better commodity that a single-A pitcher with half a season under his belt?

    French figures to be between replacement level and major league average for the next five seasons.

    Can we reasonably say, of any single-A pitcher drafted later than the 3rd round, that he figures to be that good? Don’t most single-A pitchers, even ones drafted in the third round, usually not make it to the majors at all?

    Maybe I’m just wrong about the typical success of single-A pitchers who have a good half first season, but I’m a little skeptical of these valuations.

    Comment by Fresh Hops — August 5, 2009 @ 3:27 pm

  11. French has made it to the majors, which is to be commended, but his mediocre skills put him close to replacement level, and he doesn’t figure to get much better. So he’s not much of a commodity, whereas while Robles could flame out and never reach the bigs, at least has that higher ceiling.

    In other words, French is good enough to pitch in the majors, but just barely, and there are a lot of guys in AAA who could take his place. Robles could be better than that. He’s probably harder to replace. I guess that’s the way I’m seeing it.

    Comment by Teej — August 5, 2009 @ 3:41 pm

  12. Whoa, replacement level? He’s better than league average right now by FIP or tRA. If you think that’s small sample size nonsense, why?

    I’m with you on the larger point here; I’m someone who thinks that a few of the ‘single A pitchers’ are too low on this list. But I also don’t think French is chopped liver.

    Comment by marc w. — August 5, 2009 @ 4:04 pm

  13. Marc, I’m mostly going off what I read at USSM and LL. I think Dave said he had worse stuff than Rowland-Smith and was more in the Vargas/Olson vein. So maybe not replacement level, but I have a hard time believing he’ll be a league-average starting pitcher. Maybe I’m underrating him, I don’t know.

    As for this year’s numbers, I imagine he’s going to look worse when a few of those fly balls start leaving the yard.

    But overall I’m still thrilled that the M’s were able to trade Washburn for Cheap Washburn + something else. Didn’t mean to imply that French was worthless. Just that his ceiling is probably something like a No. 4 guy. I hope I’m wrong.

    Comment by Teej — August 5, 2009 @ 4:36 pm

  14. steve johnson is 21 years old striking out 15 in 10 innings in AA. This guy is in the top 5 FOR SURE

    Comment by Matthew — August 6, 2009 @ 1:58 am

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