FanGraphs Baseball

Comments

RSS feed for comments on this post.

  1. As a Nats fan, I endorse this proposed trade.

    Comment by David — February 6, 2012 @ 12:23 pm

  2. The deal looks fine if you look only at Lannan’s ERA, and completely ignore Bourjos’ defense. It’s like the Angels never read Moneyball and don’t employ anyone who understands basic sabermetrics.

    Comment by Yirmiyahu — February 6, 2012 @ 12:23 pm

  3. Laughable trade. And wtf quality.

    Comment by jaywrong — February 6, 2012 @ 12:23 pm

  4. Even then, it’s insane. The service time and salary differences would make this trade ludicrous even if we thought Lannan and Bourjos were equally valuable players on the field.

    Comment by Dave Cameron — February 6, 2012 @ 12:24 pm

  5. Cafardo is NOT a good reporter anymore, and has spent the last 5-10 years relying on his few contacts in the game while throwing crap against the wall. He’s become the epitome of a lazy hack reporter. He should be ignored or mocked at all times.

    Comment by Justin — February 6, 2012 @ 12:26 pm

  6. Jordan Zimmerman for Bourjos has got to be a great trade for the Angels, I understand it’s only 4 years of team control, but their 1-5 in the rotation would be the best in baseball by a relatively wide margin (Ervin Santana as your 5? Yes please.). Also, just on a WAR level, in 160 innings J Zimm put up a 3.7 WAR, Bourjos put up a 4.3 WAR in a near-full season with a .338 BABIP. I know he’s fast, but that certainly seems likely to regress. I like Bourjos more than most, but I think a Zimmerman swap with him is a very good trade for the Angels, especially for their specific situation, and probably a good one for the Nats’ too with their gaping hole in center field. Why isn’t this trade happening?

    Comment by Moe Koltun — February 6, 2012 @ 12:31 pm

  7. And it would clear up the Zimmerman(n) confusion in Washington too, which is the sort of surplus value you just can’t get from most trades.

    Comment by Aaron (UK) — February 6, 2012 @ 12:35 pm

  8. Of course, Jerry DiPito is the same man who thought Joe Saunders was a quality headliner for Dan Haren, so who knows what’s going on here.

    Comment by Kevin S. — February 6, 2012 @ 12:35 pm

  9. It is also strange that Cafardo reports his source as saying Lannan would be a good option for the Red Sox. Even assuming they can squeeze $5MM under the luxury tax threshold, as they were supposedly willing to do for Edwin Jackson, I would think that the organization would take those peripheral measures seriously, especially in as unfriendly a park for lefties who pitch to contact as Fenway. You have to wonder if Nick’s source was in Washington trying to dissemble.

    If Washington were to move a lefty, probably both Ross Detwiler and Tom Gorzellany would be two who would have more value in trade.

    Comment by JCA — February 6, 2012 @ 12:35 pm

  10. As both a Nats fan and a friend of the Dutch, I would also endorse the Dutch acquiring Manhattan for $24 in beads.

    Comment by JCA — February 6, 2012 @ 12:37 pm

  11. A little bit more insanity: the Nationals have no leverage right now. After signing Jackson, Lannan is their 6th best starter (but the second highest paid). If there’s no market for Oswalt/Jackson, there’s definitely no market for Lannan.

    I’m inclined to think that Cafardo was just baselessly speculating on his own and there’s 0% chance of such a trade happening.

    Comment by Yirmiyahu — February 6, 2012 @ 12:38 pm

  12. yikes. what do you really think though?

    In this case I kinda have to agree though. Common sense should prevail on this purported trade. The Angels would have to be real, real sour on Bourjos’ makeup, because talent-wise, this trade is beyond absurd. Lannan on sight test alone is barely worth a mid-level prospect.

    The benefits of being a lefty.

    Comment by will — February 6, 2012 @ 12:42 pm

  13. Yah, that is a weird article. Do some people just have no sense when it comes to pitchers with L last names? “Surely, with a rotation with Lester, Lackey, and Lannan in it- the world will be our oyster! If by that, you mean a very difficult and dangerous thing you have to open with a knife, that if harvested in the wrong season can give you a deadly and exceptionally painful illness.”

    * With no offense intended to Lester for mentioning him in the same sentence of those other L-guys, Lester is awesome. Almost awesome enough to offset the other two…

    Comment by B N — February 6, 2012 @ 12:43 pm

  14. I couldn’t agree more. When first reading through Cafardo’s list of rumors on MLBTR, I quickly scanned them at first as there were quite a few. You could literally hear a record screeching as my brain caught up with the first note and quickly doubled back to see if I had read the detail correctly. My subsequent reaction was either it was some sort of early April fools joke or that Tony Reagins had somehow wormed his way back into the Angels front office. But as there was not an additional rumor stating that the Angels had refused a Harper for Mathis trade straight up, I assumed it had to be the former.

    Comment by Drew — February 6, 2012 @ 12:44 pm

  15. Did they let Tony Reagins one more day for old times sake?

    Comment by Ponderous — February 6, 2012 @ 12:51 pm

  16. Pretty sure Skaggs was the center of that one

    Comment by Psst — February 6, 2012 @ 12:55 pm

  17. Joe Saunders has a 1 year deal for $6 million.

    In other news, if this is true and this happens then my excitement for the upcoming season for the Angels will disappear.

    Comment by My echo and bunnymen — February 6, 2012 @ 12:56 pm

  18. this would certainly help the nats out on the defensive end and would make mike trout a starting centerfield for the angels, i like the trade! plus jon lannon would make a great long reliever for the already stacked angels rotation.

    Comment by Chris — February 6, 2012 @ 12:57 pm

  19. Nope nope – I wouldn’t go any higher than Yunesky Maya. Don’t be a sucker, Rizzo!

    Comment by Mark — February 6, 2012 @ 1:06 pm

  20. Well, okay – if Angels REALLY insist, we could re-sign Pudge & Alex Cora and throw them in to sweeten the deal.

    Comment by Mark — February 6, 2012 @ 1:08 pm

  21. Good article; I’m glad this type of speculation is being addressed.

    My guess is that Eleanor Abernathy is the source of the trade rumor.

    Comment by TheJoeFrom1993 — February 6, 2012 @ 1:09 pm

  22. Oh drat – Cora signed with the Cards. Dealbreaker, I guess.

    Comment by Mark — February 6, 2012 @ 1:11 pm

  23. While I agree that Lannan for Bourjos would be a terrible idea, if the Angels are in win-now mode wouldn’t Bourjos be the most movable piece the Angels have (outside of Trout who I’m sure is untouchable)? The Hunter and Wells contracts are more or less unmovable and I doubt the Angels will just eat those sunk costs and DFA them.

    In overall value, they could trade Bourjos (while expecting some regression) for a SP to create the most dominant rotation in baseball while installing one of the top prospects in the game in CF. Otherwise they keep Bourjos, call up Trout, platoon the old guys and keep the already solid rotation? Wells really can’t be as bad as he was last year… They could also package Bourjos with one of their excess DH’s and get a little something more.

    I’m not saying they should do this for Lannan, but if they can pull someone like Zimmermann (as suggested above) out of it I’d pull that trigger.

    Comment by TheGrandslamwich — February 6, 2012 @ 1:22 pm

  24. I don’t live in Boston so don’t read Cafardo all the time, but my first gut instinct is to agree that he is not a good reporter. I have seen multiple similar instances of him proposing outrageous trades or rumoring them. He was the one who started the Royals-want-to-trade-Greinke-for-Francoeur-but-the-Braves-are-balking story a few years back.

    Comment by rbt — February 6, 2012 @ 1:27 pm

  25. I don’t think it’s smart now. This is more of a summer concept, in my opinion. Mike Trout is 20 years old. When he played a little last season, he was pretty mediocre. They would be better-served letting him work through any minor flaws in his game in AAA for the time being, as they have a competent CF in Bourjos.

    In the above scenario, they then don’t have a problem where they trade Bourjos, find out Trout isn’t ready, then get stuck wasting a year of service time on a not-ready Trout. That, or Hunter goes back to CF and Abreu plays RF, which we all know would be an apocalyptic nightmare for Angels fans.

    They really should just let Trout play in the minors a bit and force their hand.

    Comment by Keith — February 6, 2012 @ 1:46 pm

  26. Stupidity. I believe that there was a misprint. The author either meant to say “Vernon Wells” where he said “Bourjos”, or he meant to say “Strassberg”, where he sand “Lannan”.

    Comment by Greg — February 6, 2012 @ 1:53 pm

  27. Literally hear a record screeching in your brain?

    You should go to a doctor about that….

    ….or perhaps learn what the word “literally’ means and not simply use it as a point of emphasis.

    Comment by Joe — February 6, 2012 @ 1:55 pm

  28. I probably wouldn’t do Bourjos for Strasburg if I were the Nats

    Comment by Kampfer — February 6, 2012 @ 2:03 pm

  29. No, because I’d still be confused about which one they traded and which one they kept.

    Comment by joser — February 6, 2012 @ 2:07 pm

  30. Chris Traeger would like to have a word with you…

    Comment by stumanji — February 6, 2012 @ 2:14 pm

  31. probably???

    Comment by PMac — February 6, 2012 @ 2:15 pm

  32. Dang, the Nats have a player named Strassberg to go along with Strasburg, just like they have Zimmerman and Zimmermann? If so, they should indeed trade him, but they’d probably get back Bourgeois.

    Comment by jonkk — February 6, 2012 @ 2:17 pm

  33. Lannan for Bourjos – agreed, its stupidity.

    Bourjos for Jordan Zimmermann – equal stupidity. Zimmermann is the equal of the top young pitchers who were traded this offseason: Latos, Gonzalez, and even Pineda. You don’t trade that for a good D CF who had one surprisingly good offensive season (which was supported by a BABIP 60 points higher than his previous season).

    Franklin Gutierrez (2009) – .283/.339/.425 (.764 OPS)
    Peter Bourjos (2011) – .271/.327/.438 (.765 OPS)

    Gutierrez for Ricky Romero following the 2009 season – how would that one be for the Jays ’round about now?

    Comment by Wally — February 6, 2012 @ 2:26 pm

  34. Ahhhh, the lull in worthwhile topics for Fangraphs articles that comes between the end of free agency and the start of spring training… how relaxing it is to read such pointless words.

    Comment by Dexter Bobo — February 6, 2012 @ 2:27 pm

  35. Trout for Harper. Now that’s a Nats/Angels trade discussion that would get some page hits…

    Comment by Steve — February 6, 2012 @ 2:28 pm

  36. “It’s like the Angels never read Moneyball and don’t employ anyone who understands basic sabermetrics.”

    That makes sense; they did recently trade for a CF with 30HR power.

    Comment by Parker — February 6, 2012 @ 2:28 pm

  37. Like rocking in a hammock on an unseasonably warm spring day while sipping on a lemonade.

    Comment by Dexter Bobo — February 6, 2012 @ 2:28 pm

  38. Cafardo = Evan Grant

    Comment by Gerry Fraley — February 6, 2012 @ 2:29 pm

  39. Well to be fair he didn’t say it ass literally in his brain. Just that he literally heard the sound. It makes the usevof literally unnecessary as we would not assume he was speaking figuratively about the wound nut its not wrong. He didn’t say “i literally had a screaching record player in my head”. Also pointing out poor grammar by amateur commenters while not pointing out yet another article on fr rife with errors is silly. Why would you even bother commenting on the grammar of a commenter? Its petty, childish, hurtful, indulging and uncalled for.
    perhaps you should see a doctor about your superiority complex and general douchiness. And i make that suggestion literally…..get help.

    Comment by bpdelia — February 6, 2012 @ 2:29 pm

  40. To much is being made of the Angels surplus at the corners. Next year the Angel’s will wave goodbye to Hunter and Abreu, Morales may be non-tendered if he is still unable to return from injury and if Wells doesn’t have a significant dead cat bounce they might decide to cut him and eat the money. With a lot of money committed to Pujols, Wells and the pitching staff it would be nice to have some cost controlled players on the roster. So while Trumbo and Borjous seem like the fungible pieces now, they are the pieces that offer the most in 2013 and beyond. So I think the Angels will stay put and let the glut of DH/Corner players they have now fight for playing time this year knowing it will thin out next year.

    Comment by Preston — February 6, 2012 @ 3:04 pm

  41. Certainly the team that traded for a crappy V.Wells & his $100 mil contract in exchange for a guy who would be an MVP candidate at an affordable salary wouldn’t ever consider such a dastardly deal as Bourjos for Lannan……

    Comment by Ron Paul — February 6, 2012 @ 3:09 pm

  42. Now if it was Bourjos AND Wells for Lannan, with no cash involved, then maybe we have something.

    Comment by Joel — February 6, 2012 @ 3:56 pm

  43. I think he’ll get traded if the Nationals find anything that’s more enticing than eating the $1.5mil to cut him at the end of spring training. He does have one more option, however. The Nats could just keep him and enjoy having an accomplished 6th starter for when he is needed.
    But some team will trade for him if it will allow them to give a few “real” prospects proper seasoning on the farm, especially if the cost is low/high A ball, b level prospects. Couldn’t the O’s, Stros, A’s, etc. benefit from such a trade?

    Comment by Colin — February 6, 2012 @ 4:03 pm

  44. Also, the Nats did trade Langerhans for Michael Morse. What’s wrong with lopsided trades?

    Comment by Colin — February 6, 2012 @ 4:05 pm

  45. That was under Reagins. Dipoto runs the ship now.

    Comment by JMorrow — February 6, 2012 @ 4:22 pm

  46. Scratch that. I’m not exactly sure of whom you’re referring to.

    Comment by JMorrow — February 6, 2012 @ 4:23 pm

  47. Bill Smith would do it, but only if you throw in a decent reliever.

    Comment by Brandon Warne — February 6, 2012 @ 4:33 pm

  48. It’s not really on the level of Ramos for Capps. Maybe, I can talk some sense into Terry Ryan and get him to offer Span. Then, we can have two Nick Blackburns. Three, I guess if you count Marquis. Four, if you count Pavano.

    If Gardy could only get Liriano to pitch to contact…

    Comment by Bill Smith — February 6, 2012 @ 4:34 pm

  49. I live in the Boston market and catch Cafardo from time to time on NESN before a Sox game. He seems like a nice enough guy who genuinely loves the game, so it pains me to say that he is one bad reporter. Pretty much 100% of the time that I am reading an article on boston.com that I vehemently disagree with I scroll up and see that it’s a Cafardo piece (and that’s because I ignore anything written by Shaughnessy). The game has long since past him by and the Boston Globe would do well to waive goodbye to Mr. Cafardo.

    Comment by Misfit — February 6, 2012 @ 4:39 pm

  50. Ok,then how ’bout Bourjos for Lannan, Adam LaRoche, and a coupla extra potatoes?

    Comment by Frank — February 6, 2012 @ 5:06 pm

  51. Yeah, while I agree with the general premise of the article, I think GMs are pretty reluctant to value guys like Bourjos too, and probably with good reason. Teams that count on superlative defense holding up year after year have been disappointed time after time the last several years.

    Comment by cpebbles — February 6, 2012 @ 8:03 pm

  52. They have a little bit of a history when it comes to 30hr power CFers

    Comment by Scumbag Steve — February 6, 2012 @ 8:48 pm

  53. Oh man that pitcher is suddenly playing third!!!!

    Comment by kick me in the GO NATS — February 6, 2012 @ 11:32 pm

  54. I personally would rather trade Wang, Detwiler, and Gorzellany in package before lannan. Lannan is a sure thing for 180 IPs.

    Comment by kick me in the GO NATS — February 6, 2012 @ 11:37 pm

  55. Carfado is the same guy that thinks Bud is going to offer up Starlin Castro as compensation for one year of Theo Epstein. In short, he’s an idiot.

    Comment by Jason — February 6, 2012 @ 11:49 pm

  56. I want AA to get on the phone right now and trade Brett Cecil for Bourjos

    Comment by Matty Brown — February 7, 2012 @ 12:07 am

  57. Here’s hoping the Mets swoop in and offer up Pelfrey for Bourjos

    Comment by Franco — February 7, 2012 @ 12:35 am

  58. Any team that signed Gary Matthews to a fat contract and traded for Vernon Wells is more than capable of trading Bourjos for Lannan.

    Comment by rotofan — February 7, 2012 @ 1:54 am

  59. If there was any truth to it, I’d have to hope there were other players involved. Morales? LaRoche? Ian Desmond?

    *rubs chin*

    Comment by Randy — February 7, 2012 @ 2:38 am

  60. Gutierrez is not a great comparator for Bourjos:

    (1) Bourjos’ big season came at age 24; Gutierrez came at 26. Even if the two were equal as offensive talents at those age — and they were not — Bourjos would have a higher upside on age alone.

    (2) Bourjos had fewer than 200 PA before his big season, not enough time to establish anything. Gutierrez had nearly 900 PA of poor offensive performance before his big year.

    (3) Bourjos had a lot more power as a 24-year-old than Gutierrez, with a career IPO of .170.

    (4) Bourjos’ big challenge is plate discipline but he showed improvement last year. Gutierrez was somewhat more advanced in that regard but not by much at the same stage.

    (4) You write about Gutierrez as if 2009 was a complete fluke without regard to a severe gastrointestinal ailment since that left him losing much of his weight and muscle. While he may never regain the core strength, its absurd to suggest his injury-influenced decline is somehow predictive for Bourjos.

    (5) Bourjos’s xBABIP in 2011 was about .315 or .320 depending upon which calculator is used. His actual BABIP was .338, which was in the same neighbourhood of what was expected. The aberration was 2010, when his BABIP was about 50 points lower than his xBABIP. Gutierrez’s BABIP was about 45 points higher than his xBABIP in 2009, so it appears he, not Bourjos, was more the beneficiary of luck. Bourjos’s low mark of BABIP in the minors was .326 while three times it was .357 or higher. Any reasonable analysis would assume that the .226 BABIP in a limited number of at-bats in 2010 was the anomaly.

    Comment by rotofan — February 7, 2012 @ 4:37 am

  61. The OF log jam can be remedied by inventing a time machine and not trading for Vernon Wells.

    Comment by Michael — February 7, 2012 @ 7:56 am

  62. I wasn’t predicting that Bourjos WILL decline, just that (a) the risk of a Gutierrez-like decline is present, and (b) his offensive performance last year surprised most baseball analysts/commentators, and he’ll need to do it for at least another 1-2 years before his market value takes that into account as his true level.

    I like the guy, but I think it is absurd to suggest that his market value is equal to Jordan Zimmermann.

    Comment by Wally — February 7, 2012 @ 9:19 am

  63. maybe Cafardo wrote this to see if we were paying attention and on our toes……. yeahhh… something like that!

    Comment by Bill King — February 7, 2012 @ 10:00 am

  64. you need dirt to grow potatoes, where as this is just BS, the stuff that helps grow the potatoes

    Comment by Bill King — February 7, 2012 @ 10:05 am

  65. more likely it would get people attempting to burn down the white house

    Comment by Bill King — February 7, 2012 @ 10:07 am

  66. @Wally

    His true market value is around Zimmerman, but that’s what this entire discussion is about: who can get less for their assets than the Angels?

    Comment by Bill King — February 7, 2012 @ 10:10 am

  67. Bourjos has a hip issue he’s been playing though, right? He probably wouldn’t even pass the physical.

    Comment by blovy8 — February 7, 2012 @ 11:28 am

  68. You come off as such a d bag. You are way to strongly opinionated. Using words such as insane and ludicrous. Your just putting down people that come to your website. He is entitled to his opinion and should not be ridiculed.

    Comment by Brady — February 7, 2012 @ 4:06 pm

  69. Bourjos is soon going to be considered the best CF south of Matt Kemp. Partnered with Mike Trout, the best RF, and Trumbo in LF, combining to form the best all white OF in the past 40 years.

    Comment by Greg — February 7, 2012 @ 4:46 pm

  70. @Brady, Nick Cafardo is the one who is way too strongly opinionated. Living in Boston and reading his garbage every week in the newspaper every week, I cannot begin to express in words how much $h!t he throws against the wall on a weekly basis. It’s especially painful because I’m an Angels fan, and have had to suffer through these proposed trades from Cafardo: Bourjos-Lannan, Bourjos-Wade Davis, Mark Trumbo-Wade Davis. Cafardo’s sources are talking heads just like him. I guarantee he gets half of his information from wanna-bes like Jim Duquette and Jim Bowden. Cafardo is a pi$$-poor excuse for a reporter and it’s insulting he’d even consider the thought that Jerry DiPoto would entertain such stupidity.

    Comment by Marc — February 7, 2012 @ 5:07 pm

  71. @Misfit, totally agree with you, as someone who also lives in the Boston area. Cafardo isn’t a bad guy, but he’s worried about the younger generation of reporters coming for his job, so he constantly has to float these ridiculous rumors to make it look like he has inside info. As an Angels fan though, it gets pretty old listening to Cafardo write about my team, especially when he proposes trading our second-best position player for a retread #5 starter. He also seems to think that Mark Trumbo is Jason Giambi on ‘roids.

    Comment by Marc — February 7, 2012 @ 5:14 pm

  72. Totally agree. And these trades are just totally ridiculous. Bourjos/Trumbo for a #5 starter?!? Bobby Abreu (.366 OBP vs. RHP), for a middle reliever?!? Give me a break. I also love the notion that we have a gaping hole @ 3B when Callaspo had a .366 OBP and the 4th highest OPS amongst AL third basemen last year

    Comment by Marc — February 7, 2012 @ 5:23 pm

  73. ^This^ :)

    Comment by Marc — February 7, 2012 @ 5:24 pm

  74. Williams is better then lannan. Here I can make something that makes no sense: Vernon Wells for Bryce Harper straight up.

    Comment by hector — February 7, 2012 @ 5:47 pm

  75. Exactly! Who knows what Tony Reagins will do next?
    Wait. What?

    Comment by TheJoeFrom1993 — February 7, 2012 @ 10:20 pm

  76. If I’m in an AL-only fantasy league that does not have a big emphasis on Stolen Bases (counts for half as much as other categories) and a panicked owner is offering me Peter Bourjos for Colby Lewis, should I accept? I’d lose him if he goes to the Nats, and I’ve been wrong before for assuming the Halos act like a rational ballclub.

    Comment by Rick — February 7, 2012 @ 11:45 pm

  77. I’m just wondering why the Jays don’t get BBQ’d for trading Napoli for a broken down reliever. At least we fired Reagins for being an idiot. Toronto hasn’t even spent the money they saved on Wells.

    Comment by David — February 8, 2012 @ 1:49 am

  78. Trout for Harper? No thanks! Mike Trout is a class act with unlimited potential…I have heard comparisons with Mickey Mantle. I have seen the behavior of Bryce Harper on a few occasions, and I am not impressed at all.

    Keep Peter Bourjos Jerry Dipoto, and don’t ruin a great offseason by making this kind of Reaginsesque trade at ther last minute.

    After a couple of more seasons under Angels control, and allowing Trout to develop more…perhaps Bourjos could go to the Nats for RYAN Zimmerman, not Jordan.

    Comment by Jim — February 8, 2012 @ 11:31 am

Leave a comment

Line and paragraph breaks automatic, e-mail address never displayed, HTML allowed: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>


Close this window.

0.288 Powered by WordPress