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  1. I disagree.

    Comment by Dick — February 14, 2012 @ 2:20 pm

  2. Well of course you do, you Richard.

    Comment by ToddM — February 14, 2012 @ 2:43 pm

  3. I’m not sure if you’re suggesting Hultzen went to GT, but he didn’t. Went to UVa

    Comment by Andrew — February 14, 2012 @ 2:51 pm

  4. Are you suggesting Hultzen has an 80 fastball?

    Comment by Nate — February 14, 2012 @ 2:56 pm

  5. No, I scouted him at GT. I live in the Atlanta area.

    Comment by Mike Newman — February 14, 2012 @ 3:04 pm

  6. No, but I’m suggesting his fastball will miss more bats than most think.

    Comment by Mike Newman — February 14, 2012 @ 3:05 pm

  7. Pretty sure he saw him start against Tech…ya know in the same conference as UVA and all

    Comment by seth — February 14, 2012 @ 3:11 pm

  8. No Tigers on these lists?!? Rabble! Rabble, rabble, rabble! Rabble!!!

    Comment by Angry Tigers Fan — February 14, 2012 @ 3:54 pm

  9. What do you think of Jenrry Mejia’s fastball? Have you scouted him in person before?

    Comment by Greg — February 14, 2012 @ 4:12 pm

  10. Thanks for this. A very informative post, not least because it introduced me to the 80/20 system. The picture (slowly) becomes less foggy…

    Comment by shibboleth — February 14, 2012 @ 4:20 pm

  11. I’m hoping you’ll get to see Austin Hedges at some point, so you can compare/contrast with Bethancourt.

    Comment by Marver — February 14, 2012 @ 4:34 pm

  12. Semi-off-topic, but why is it the 20 to 80 scale rather than the decimal-friendly 0 to 100 scale? Same reason the SAT uses 200 to 800? (I always though that was so even underachievers could feel that they’d done better than a zero.)

    Comment by Cookierojas16 — February 14, 2012 @ 6:02 pm

  13. How long have you been scouting? Reading your thoughts on Mike Stanton’s power, I’d be interested to know how that compares to some of the truly great power hitting prospects in history — say, Frank Howard in the PCL in 1959; or if you’re too young for that, maybe Daryll Strawberry in 1982?

    Comment by JimNYC — February 14, 2012 @ 6:24 pm

  14. Last year (and this year) I made/make rosters for The Show (video game) using projections (rather than the previous season’s stats). I use an average of Zips, Guru’s, THT,etc.

    Cody Johnson jumped off the screen with his 84 Power vL and 79 PvR (99 MAX). Of course that’s almost completely negated by his 27 Contact vR, 34 Contact vL.

    For comparison, ARod was 79/80. Bautista 87/85. (2011 projections).

    Mike Hessman was another guy that grabbed my attention with 67/75 Power ratings, but a 36/43 contact rating.

    Power Rating (Excel style) is:

    POW=IF(HR550<18,(( HR550*3.0256)+((18- HR550)*0.65)),( HR550*3.0256)-((( HR550-18)*3.0256)/1.9))

    Contact Rating:

    CON=IF((BA/1000)<0.28,(((BA/1000)*254.315428326364)-(((0.28-(BA /1000))*254.315428326364)/0.6)),(( BA /1000)*254.315428326364)+(((( BA /1000)-0.28)*254.315428326364)*1))

    I combine these rating with my own system that compares a player performance above/below average and then computes the rating the same degree above/below average rating for the stat.

    Not that anybody gives a crap. *grin*

    Comment by CircleChange11 — February 14, 2012 @ 6:39 pm

  15. FWIW, Johnson’s “vision rating” (based on K’s) was a 3 (0-100 scale). Mark Reynolds was/is a 9.

    Comment by CircleChange11 — February 14, 2012 @ 6:47 pm

  16. It’s a statistical thing, each segment of ten from fifty represents a standard deviation. Each segment can be statistically identified as including a certain percentage of players at all times.

    I suppose using the numbers 20-80 is fairly arbitrary anyway, but 0-100 would have an average of 55, which is an annoyingly un-round number.

    Technically though, it is possible for players to have tool grades of 90 (or 10 or lower) or higher as it is plausible for a player to have a tool that is four standard deviations from the mean, but they would be so incredibly rare that it’s best not to include that part of the scale.

    Comment by bluejays49 — February 14, 2012 @ 9:52 pm

  17. Sure. Against Tech. At Tech.

    Comment by Albert Lyu — February 15, 2012 @ 1:32 am

  18. I’d love to see the finished players on The Show after you’ve created them all. I adore that game.

    Comment by Matty Brown — February 15, 2012 @ 2:05 am

  19. In the AFL, Gose fielded a single in medium right field and air-mailed a throw 15-20′ up the vertical netting behind home plate. Everyone (players and fans) turned to RF to see Gose strike a right-index finger-pointing-to-flexed-left-bicep pose, topped off by a proud grin. It was a fantastic moment.

    Comment by Slacker George — February 15, 2012 @ 11:52 am

  20. I haven’t much of Mejia except for on TV, but it wouldn’t be an 80 for me based on his difficult commanding the pitch and that his top end velocity was not that of De La Rosa. Pitch F/X had Mejia at 94.6 MPH in 2010 versus Rubby at 97 MPH.

    Comment by Mike Newman — February 19, 2012 @ 7:18 am

  21. This is not a knock against the Tigers, but I can’t think of a single prospect in the organization with an 80 tool. I’ve scouted Oliver, and while he touched 95 from the left side with his fastball, a scout and I agreed it was probably no more than a 55 offering based on a lack of movement and an inability to command the pitch effectively

    Comment by Mike Newman — February 19, 2012 @ 7:20 am

  22. Lesson 1, be sure to refer to the system at 20/80 and not vice versa. After that, I focus on 50 as the MLB average and work up or down from there. After three years scouting prospects, I’m still not completely comfortable working too deep into the system because I don’t want to create a gap of understanding with readers. If I phrase pitches as above average or plus, it’s much easier for a reader to understand than 55-60. At times, I feel the use of a 20/80 scale in writing can come off as pretentious and talking down to readers.

    Also, the 20/80 scale seems easy on the surface, but it’s subjective in all areas except for running times and maybe home-to-second catcher throw times. Sure, orgs. will grade fastballs on velocity alone, but I simply can’t due to movement and command.

    Comment by Mike Newman — February 19, 2012 @ 7:30 am

  23. I hope so too! If that happens, it means I’ll have a bigger scouting budget and the ability to travel more.

    Comment by Mike Newman — February 19, 2012 @ 7:30 am

  24. I agree with paragraphs 1-2, but am not sure about 3. I’ve simply never breached that topic with a scouting contact before.

    Comment by Mike Newman — February 19, 2012 @ 7:31 am

  25. Check out this article I previously wrote on projecting the power tool.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/predicting-the-power-tool-using-metrics/

    Strawberry was a legit 70-power guy in MLB for a number of years with a couple of seasons of 80 output.

    Frank Howard had an true 80 power peak, but was actually more of a 65 power guy for much of his career based on average home run output.

    One very important aspect to remember is that projection is based on what a player projects to do at the big league level. Should a guy hit 172 home runs in AAA, it still may not project as 80-power at the big league level.

    Comment by Mike Newman — February 19, 2012 @ 7:37 am

  26. I love this kind of stuff! I was a huge MLB video game guy until a few years ago and would go on Baseball Mogul binges to the point where my wife had to hide my laptop. Even now, I have OOTP on my IPhone and will become hooked from time-to-time.

    At this point in my life, I don’t have as much time for that sort of thing, but am still an avid fantasy baseballer.

    Comment by Mike Newman — February 19, 2012 @ 7:39 am

  27. Yes, he’s a freak of nature in the best possible sense. If he ever learns how to cut down the K’s…..

    Comment by Mike Newman — February 19, 2012 @ 7:41 am

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