FanGraphs Baseball

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  1. “Only one of the 32 teams to reach the playoffs over the past four seasons did so with a team wRC+ lower than 95.”

    Had to be the Giants, yes? 2010?

    Comment by ian — February 13, 2012 @ 4:08 pm

  2. So you’re saying that the Phils should Joe Blanton, Shane Victoriono, Brody Colvin, and Trevor May for Matt Kemp?

    Comment by Waluigi — February 13, 2012 @ 4:10 pm

  3. No, hes asaying that they need four spicy meatballs!

    Comment by Luigi — February 13, 2012 @ 4:11 pm

  4. Is it just me or do those xBABIP figures look a bit optimistic?

    Comment by John — February 13, 2012 @ 4:11 pm

  5. No, hes asaying that they need purchase Mario Party 2 for the N64 before ebay runs out!

    Comment by Wario — February 13, 2012 @ 4:13 pm

  6. I second that. Utley, Rollins, aren’t getting their speed back any time soon…or ever.

    Comment by World B Free — February 13, 2012 @ 4:14 pm

  7. Rollins’ BABIP the last four seasons: .290, .251, .246, .275. The projections listed on Fangraphs (even the Fans projection) call for him to have a BABIP in the low .270s this year, which sounds about right.

    Comment by NickH — February 13, 2012 @ 4:18 pm

  8. For what it’s worth, they led the NL in scoring from the day Utley returned in May, through the end of the season. Not all due to Utley, as others improved as well, but he replaced AAAA fill-ins Valdez, Orr, and Martinez, who had a combined .538 OPS at that point.

    Comment by schmenkman — February 13, 2012 @ 4:19 pm

  9. Wouldn’t NL only team rankings be more useful here? I believe before last year they were first or second in the NL in scoring since the beginning of their playoff run. Even taking their park into account that’s impressive.

    Comment by Ken — February 13, 2012 @ 4:28 pm

  10. Those figures match my independently calc’d expected BABIP figures very closely. Remember, speed is but a small component of BABIP skill.

    Comment by Jesse Smith — February 13, 2012 @ 4:36 pm

  11. Citizens Bank Park has played very neutral over the last 4-5 years.

    Comment by Fatalotti — February 13, 2012 @ 4:38 pm

  12. No. It was actually the 2008 Dodgers with 93. The 2010 Giants had 95.

    Comment by hk — February 13, 2012 @ 4:45 pm

  13. Yeah, heard that one a bunch of times. For one, its not like the offense was really crushing it in September, October or the post season. And they were dreadful in april.
    Furthermore, how many games do you expect utley to play this year? The dudes knees can not take 162 game schedule if they want him to be effective down the stretch.
    And yes, Howard will be out till at least mid may.

    Still, barring injury to H2L, they’re making the playoffs.

    Comment by Jesse — February 13, 2012 @ 4:53 pm

  14. Rollins hasn’t sniffed a .320 babip in any season throughout his career, I don’t think he’s going to start now. For some reason he’s just one of those players who vastly performs under xBABIP.
    For Utley, I think the knee affected his ability to pull the ball with power more than effecting speed, but who knows how the knee will truely respond this year.

    Comment by byosti — February 13, 2012 @ 4:55 pm

  15. As a Phillies fans, I hate the “Nix crushes right-handed pitching” assessment when, for their careers, right-handed Ben Francisco has done better against RHPs. Still can’t stand that they gave Nix a two year deal, don’t see how the demand for him could have been that high. I’m sure Charlie will even start him against a lefty a few times.

    Comment by byosti — February 13, 2012 @ 5:03 pm

  16. How many games? Hopefully more than 103. He started 100 of the last 116. If he rests more often, something in the 130 range.

    And while Howard is out initially, they have Pence for the full year, they no longer have Ibanez (.306 wOBA), and they have better offense off the bench.

    Comment by schmenkman — February 13, 2012 @ 5:07 pm

  17. “…you get a team batter age of 31.92 years. That’s older than the club’s league-leading totals from 2010 (31.8) and ’11 (31.5).”

    So they are returning all 8 starters (I’m including Howard) and getting slightly older? Shocking. Sarcasm aside, this team won 102 games last year, it’s going to take a lot keep them from another NL East pennant, color my skeptical that the team falls off a cliff offensively after turning age 31.92.

    Factoring in that they have rid themselves off offensive black-holes Ibanez and Valdez, assuming the regressions (to their individual means) of various starters will mostly average out (eg. Pence worse, Utley better..) and assuming average health (which for the Phils means someone misses at least 6 weeks and Victorino has two, separate 15-day stints) I don’t see how the offense is any worse. Seeing as how they were one of the top offenses in the NL from mid-May forward, were 2nd in MLB in run differential and won their division by 13 games I think the Phillies will be fine.

    Comment by zeke — February 13, 2012 @ 5:23 pm

  18. Last year Howard and Utley combined for 250+ games. Howard was the better hitter (valued less because of position, defense, ect, but still higher wOBA), and i really doubt the two of them combine for much more than 260 games.

    John Mayberry was a top three woba on the team last year, and the man screams regression. If he gets no platoon help, they will find a hole.

    Comment by Jesse — February 13, 2012 @ 5:36 pm

  19. The Braves are relying on lots of regression and health too. The Marlins are only semi-serious contenders and the Nats are likely 1-2 years away.

    With the extra WC, it’s difficult to envision PHL not making the playoffs in 12. But there is a valid point that they’ll eventually need to add some young players. It turns out DBrown probably isn’t the next Strawberry, but the Phil’s core is still playoff good for 1-2 seasons (at least).

    Like almost every other team, staying healthy is a key. Seriously, every contender has health concerns and issues.

    Comment by CircleChange11 — February 13, 2012 @ 5:43 pm

  20. Neutral field is a bit of a misnomer here…the park really suppresses triples (and doubles for LH hitters), but it’s still a homer haven. Statcorner puts its HR park factor at 116/120 for LH/RH batters. wOBA is just a tick higher than average at 103/101.

    -C

    Comment by cthabeerman — February 13, 2012 @ 5:44 pm

  21. Phillies were #15 in baseball in wOBA last year, but the Marlins, Nationals, and Braves were 19, 22, and 23 respectively.

    Comment by Chris — February 13, 2012 @ 5:44 pm

  22. Losing Ibanez is why the average age didn’t take a larger leap…most hitters are on the wrong side of 30 and added a year to their bodies.

    In this particular case, a slight bump in the average age is actually quite bad, because it’s spread throughout the entire lineup. The loss of a 40-year-old Ibanez should have caused the average age to bottom out to a degree, yet it still raised. I suppose Thome really helped kill the downward trend, but it’s still something a Phillies fan should be a little wary of.

    -C

    Comment by cthabeerman — February 13, 2012 @ 5:50 pm

  23. “but the Braves, Marlins and Nationals will all feature formidable rotations, especially if Tommy Hanson, Josh Johnson and Stephen Strasburg turn out full seasons”

    while,

    ” Joe Blanton may not be as good as Roy Oswalt and Vance Worley will be hard-pressed to duplicate his rookie success”

    DOOMED!

    If only somewhere there were 3 starting pitchers who had more fwar than all but 7 teams entire pitching staffs..

    Comment by zeke — February 13, 2012 @ 5:53 pm

  24. Fatalotti is presumably getting that from ESPN, which shows that for the past several years, HR/Game has been essentially the same in their home and road games.

    Anyone know how to reconcile that with the StatCorner data, which is based on HR/FB rates?

    The conclusion seems to be there there are many fewer FBs per game at CBP, than in the Phillies’ away games, but I don’t know if that’s the case.

    Comment by schmenkman — February 13, 2012 @ 5:59 pm

  25. I’m not discounting that an aging roster is a concern for future seasons, but for 2012 I don’t see the issue. And Thome will make the team “older” than Ibanez but without the negative war in ~550 PA’s

    Comment by zeke — February 13, 2012 @ 6:00 pm

  26. I get why you’re using wOBA and wRC, but it should be pointed out that last year the Phillies scored 713 runs. Atlanta scored 641. The Nats scored 624.

    Were one–or both–offenses made significantly better this offseason? Are the Phillies really 50 runs worse?

    As one of the above commentators pointed out–Utley does make a big difference in the lineup, not only because he’s good (he is) but because that means Wilson Valdez doesn’t get 300 ABs this year. Which brings up another point. The Phillies are, as you correctly noted, old. Geriatric teams need to have a better bench. The Phillies were widely panned last offseason for having a really shallow bench. Can the same be said now?

    I guess it’s possible that their offense depreciates more relative to leaguewide offenses… but I think it’s also possible that the Mayberry/platoon works and the team offsets the loss of Howard for a month with better production from LF, RF, and 2B…

    Comment by cable fixer — February 13, 2012 @ 6:08 pm

  27. Too early for this kind of article. Need to have a better idea of when Howard might be back, who is going to be slated to get most of the PT at 1B/LF in his absence, how some players look in spring training coming off serious surgery (e.g., Polanco), and to see if some of the aging players the Phils brought back for the bench might be ‘done’ offensively or at risk for a collapse in their numbers (e.g., Schneider, Wigginton).

    Comment by MG — February 13, 2012 @ 6:30 pm

  28. Yes, health is a concern, but I think it’s a much greater concern to the Phillies, as they have so much more riding on three players (Halladay,Hamels and Lee). Losing any one of them for the season would be much more debilitating than the loss of any one player on the Nats, Braves or Marlins. I still foresee the Phillies winning the division, but their perch atop the division is a bit precarious (and anything but assured beyond 2012).

    Comment by Will — February 13, 2012 @ 6:40 pm

  29. The Phillies could probably win the division with Seattle’s 2010 offense because of their pitching. So to answer the question, yes they have enough offense.

    Comment by jpg — February 13, 2012 @ 6:56 pm

  30. no team could lose a 6 WAR starter for the entire year and expect to contend let alone win the world series.

    or…not.

    Comment by free nova scotia — February 13, 2012 @ 7:10 pm

  31. Ms scored 556 (yikes!). Phillies pitching allowed 529.

    Pythagenpat projects that team will win 84. Moreover, that differential of 27 runs would be good for 7th in the NL, and only 9 runs behind Atlanta, who was +36.

    Comment by cable fixer — February 13, 2012 @ 7:20 pm

  32. oops, i used Ms in 2011 (556 RS).

    Comment by cable fixer — February 13, 2012 @ 7:21 pm

  33. I have said it from the day they lost Werth that Amaro hasn’t brought that big RH Power Bat to Philly. Tinkering got him bounced out of the playoffs last year and it will do the same this year. Amaro is turning into the Andy Reid of Baseball.

    Comment by Ettore Ciancarelli — February 13, 2012 @ 7:55 pm

  34. “Tinkering got him bounced out of the playoffs last year and it will do the same this year.”

    Nonsense. They got bounced in the playoffs early last year because baseball is unpredictable and shit happens.

    Comment by Richard — February 13, 2012 @ 8:16 pm

  35. You mean a right-handed bat that plays right field…. Kind of like Hunter Pence?

    Comment by Nik — February 13, 2012 @ 8:26 pm

  36. Why not petition Louisville Slugger to make a bunch of “RH Power Bats” and pass them around the team? Now that’s tinkering!

    Comment by zach — February 13, 2012 @ 8:57 pm

  37. Wouldn’t the next obvious comparison (after looking at an individual team from year to year) to compare the trends between teams?

    The Phillies wOBA (wRC+) from 2009-2011: 0.340 (104), 0.328 (100), 0.316 (96)
    The Braves wOBA (wRC+) from 2009-2011: 0.326 (97), 0.327 (101) , 0.304 (90)
    The Marlins wOBA (wRC+) from 2009-2011: 0.331 (97), 0.319 (93), 0.311 (91).

    So while the Phillies decline seems more precipitous in a vacuum, the same trends are seen in the division (sorry left Mets out). I haven’t looked at other teams in the ML, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see some similar things- as others pointed out above offense is trending downward.

    I agree that the Phillies are getting older and that will eventually translate into offensive concerns (that are already visible) but it shouldn’t cost them a playoff spot, at least in 2012.

    “The Phillies might not end up facing elite pitchers every time out, but they didn’t last year, and still turned out a below-average offense.”

    I see this claim a lot- essentially that the Phillies don’t produce well against elite pitchers. 1) Most offenses don’t- that’s why those pitchers are elite and 2) has anyone looked at this? I haven’t seen the data to back this up. If I missed it, could someone direct me to it?

    Crashburn had a similar article back in November on their site. It’s worth checking out.

    Comment by JC — February 13, 2012 @ 10:27 pm

  38. why on god’s green earth would the dodgers take that deal?

    Comment by ben — February 13, 2012 @ 11:08 pm

  39. As nasty as the Phils pitching is, I’m gonna go on record and predict that they don’t win the NL East.

    Comment by ben — February 13, 2012 @ 11:09 pm

  40. Im going to go on record and predict that you aren’t wagering anything tangible on this.

    Comment by zeke — February 14, 2012 @ 12:13 am

  41. Adam Wainwright is pretty close to a “6 WAR pitcher” and the Cards managed it.

    I think something else you have to factor in is the competition level. The Nats, Fish, and Braves are all, on paper, better than they were last year. Nats and Fish through trades. Braves through a mix of regression (progression?) from Heyward/Uggla, no Lowe, and having a generally young roster, especially their pitchers who should collectively get better.

    Comment by Antonio Bananas — February 14, 2012 @ 12:21 am

  42. ….who are about to have their age 33, 35, and 28 season. Hamels, I predict, will have some sort of arm injury before his career is over because of how high his elbow is when he throws. Pitchers, get injured and/or fall off a cliff all the time, and that risk gets higher the older they get.

    Comment by Antonio Bananas — February 14, 2012 @ 12:25 am

  43. Something to consider about Atlanta is a new hitting coach. I know this is fangraphs and “lol @ coaches” but they went from having one of the highest OBP to having one of the lowest. It was well documented that their hitting coach last year was too focused on power and that’s why there was that lack of discipline.

    So what do the Braves, Phillies, Nats, and Marlins look like over the last three years (or more importantly, the players on their current roster over the last 3 years) look like and how can we project their offenses that way?

    Comment by Antonio Bananas — February 14, 2012 @ 12:29 am

  44. In that case it would be 513 runs (M’s in 2010). Phillies pitching allowed 529 runs, putting them at 80-82.

    So, no, even the Phillies pitching staff couldn’t carry a team with the Mariners offense to the playoffs.

    Comment by Will — February 14, 2012 @ 3:45 am

  45. We’re not talking about three regular pitchers here, though. They have proven track records, which makes their falling off the cliff a lot less likely. In fact, looking at Halladay/Lee/Hamels over the last four years, only once in those 12 player seasons did one of these pitchers not finish in the top 10 in their league in bWAR(Hamels in 2009).

    I’d feel a lot more comfortable projecting injuries and dropoffs in production if these guys were all 24 or 25, but not now.

    Comment by bstar — February 14, 2012 @ 6:26 am

  46. That’sa the joke!

    Comment by Mario — February 14, 2012 @ 8:26 am

  47. wainwright is exactly a 6 WAR pitcher. i was trolling :)

    my point was that the worries about the phillies age/injury histories are largely overblown. they’re still really good.

    Comment by free nova scotia — February 14, 2012 @ 8:59 am

  48. yes please. i’ll take that wager!

    Comment by cable fixer — February 14, 2012 @ 9:02 am

  49. talent–especially young talent–doesn’t always get better in a linear or stepwise fashion. maybe that’s the fault of the hitting coach, maybe that’s just the normal growth process. idk.

    but either way, anyone overlooking atlanta in the division should be doing so at their own peril. they’re already very good and could be excellent.

    Comment by cable fixer — February 14, 2012 @ 9:16 am

  50. Thanks, Buster Posey!

    Comment by Michael — February 14, 2012 @ 9:30 am

  51. lolololololol conversation derailed

    Comment by Bowser, Jr. — February 14, 2012 @ 9:32 am

  52. You mean God’s green Mushroom Kingdom?

    Comment by Princess Daisy — February 14, 2012 @ 9:33 am

  53. Odds to win WS as per 5 Dimes: Phils +500, Yanks +600, Angels +800, Red Sox + 950, Tigers +1000,Rangers +1050,Rays +2000,Giants and Cards +2200, Marlins + 2300, Braves +2400, Nats +3100. That’s nuff said for me.

    Comment by redbean7 — February 14, 2012 @ 11:01 am

  54. No he is saying you should never bareback it. Always use a Rubber!

    Comment by Zelda — February 14, 2012 @ 11:12 am

  55. The Cardinals didn’t expect to make the playoffs without Wainwright.

    Obviously there was a chance, but it wasn’t an expectation.

    With Wainwright, the expectation was that StL would win the division.

    I don;t know that there’s ANY team that has such a lead in their division or wild card that they could lose a 6 WAR and expect to make the playoffs. Could they still make the playoffs? Of course. But expect to? Not IMO.

    Losing any one of them for the season would be much more debilitating than the loss of any one player on the Nats, Braves or Marlins.

    I don’t think it’s that simple.

    If the 95 win Phils lose 6 WAR, they’re an 89 win team.

    If the 90 win Braves lose a 3 WAR player, they’re a 87 win team.

    It goes without saying that losing a 6 WAR player is worse than losing a 3 WAR player (all other things equal), but it also depends on the overall talent of the team and the talent of the player replacing the lost player.

    IMO, Philly could lose Halladay or Lee, and still have a decent shot for the playoffs, given the team’s overall talent as compared to the overall talent of their competitors for a playoff spot.

    Comment by CircleChange11 — February 14, 2012 @ 11:24 am

  56. No, it’s not. Among educated Phillies fans, confidence was lost in our Offense to consistently score runs ~2 years ago. The truth is Jimmy and Chase are totally done offensively, and are just there for defense and name/leadership. Ryan Howard is also arguably done offensively, and will just see LHP at all important ABs.

    Something else needs to be done offensively because this hitting goes cold easy and often and we pay too much fucking money and pitch too well to score 0 runs in an elimination game.

    Comment by lol — February 14, 2012 @ 11:34 am

  57. Ok you and your “educated Phillies fans” might as well pack it in and watch lacrosse.

    Comment by Nik — February 14, 2012 @ 11:46 am

  58. Lacrosse is very popular here in the Delaware Valley, there are many good teams. The Sixers, Flyers and Eagles are false prophets, the Phillies reign supreme.

    Comment by lol — February 14, 2012 @ 12:02 pm

  59. Educated Phillies fans?

    At WORST Chase Utley is a LEAGUE AVERAGE bat at a defensive position, with positive defense and baserunning. That’s VALUABLE. As a cradinals fan I’d dive into shark-infested waters to save a bleeding kitten for a league average bat at 2B with PLUS defense.

    Ryan Howard is a league average hitting 1B (below average fielder), and an average 1B is a good hitter. But, no he’s not worth 27M/y.

    I don;t think so-called educated Philly fans are all that intelligent if that be the case. Sounds like “educated” Philly fans have just gone with the flow of some of the others and view anything other than 5 WAR as crappy.

    Chase Utley at his worst at the plate and even injured for 60 games was worth 4 WAR. That’s ruckin’ fidiculous. If you don’t view him as an offensive weapon, or think he’s only their for leadership and name only, you don;t know *** from chocolate pudding.

    [quote]Something else needs to be done offensively because this hitting goes cold easy and often and we pay too much fucking money and pitch too well to score 0 runs in an elimination game.[/quote]

    You could sign Delmon Young. He’s clutch in the playoffs.

    Philly fans are started to sound like Yankee fans. I liked them both so much more in the mid 80s. *friendly grin*

    Comment by CircleChange11 — February 14, 2012 @ 1:13 pm

  60. @ CC http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-financial-cost-of-losing-adamwainwright/

    “The Cardinals didn’t expect to make the playoffs without Wainwright. Obviously there was a chance, but it wasn’t an expectation. With Wainwright, the expectation was that StL would win the division.”

    That’s only partially correct. They were 35% to win the division before the Wainwright injury and 20% to win the division after. That may seem like a lot, but it’s not and in neither situation were they favored to win the division. In terms of raw wins, remember that WAR doesn’t equal wins. the projections pushed them down from 87 wins to 83 wins.

    As for this discussion, the phillies outscored the braves by 70 last year and gave up 100 fewer runs. IMO, the wainwright outcome might be the exception, not the norm, but the phillies are certainly one of the teams who are eligible for such an outcome.

    Comment by cable fixer — February 14, 2012 @ 2:28 pm

  61. “And the Phillies have done very little to bring new faces to the mix.”

    Hunter Pence is a major new face. He’s only mentioned in this article as a potential BABIP-regressor, but he hasn’t even contributed 250 plate appearances in his Phillies career. The fact that he’s taking over full-time duties in right field for Francisco and Brown is an important development.

    “the team’s other prominent free-agent signees on the position player side — [Juan Pierre], Jim Thome, Laynce Nix and Ty Wigginton — aren’t going to bring much to the table.”

    Look at the at-bats they are replacing — Ross Gload, Michael Martinez, Pete Orr. Raul Ibanez, Wilson Valdez and Ben Francisco got bounced from the lineup as well.

    Looking at the new faces and saying, “Oh wow, they’re old/declining” is a superficial analysis. Suppose these new players combine to give the Phillies roughly league average production. That’s a huge upgrade over 2011 Gload (62 WRC+), Valdez (67), Martinez (49), Francisco (94), Ibanez (90), Orr (46)… The offense should improve considerably on the basis of adding depth and scrapping their weakest performers.

    Comment by Phils_Goodman — February 14, 2012 @ 3:12 pm

  62. My feeling was that the consensus was that the NLC would send one team to the playoffs and that losing Wainwright mean the Brewers jumped the Cardinals in terms of “projected finish”.

    As it turns out the Braves collapsed (and underperformed with injuries), the cards improved and played well and they made the playoffs on the last day.

    It’s baseball and you can’t really say that there is a zero chance of something happening. I think, even as a Cards fan, that StL really had no business being in playoff contention in 2012, especially considering AW50’s injury and AP5’s bad start.

    I think we’re in agreement that Philly can experience injuries in 2012 and still make the playoffs reasonable because they are overall more talented than the teams they’re competing with.

    IMHO, some are so anxious and excited for Philly to get old already and suck … that we jump the gun in predicting their ultimate doom.

    They also have financial clout which means they could sign guys like McCutchen when he’s a FA and things of that nature. We have little idea of the player turnover between now and 2014.

    Comment by CircleChange11 — February 14, 2012 @ 3:20 pm

  63. It’s interesting that they also got beat by an old team that’s one injury away from missing the playoffs.

    Somewhere in the NL there must be all of these teams with young stars that are making the playoffs and getting ready to take over the world.

    I know, I know. The Washington Nationals are going to rule the world in 2013. If not 2013, then 2014. If not 2014, then 2015. If not …

    *smirk*

    Comment by CircleChange11 — February 14, 2012 @ 3:23 pm

  64. Maybe pitching in the division is getting better?

    Comment by CircleChange11 — February 14, 2012 @ 3:24 pm

  65. Agreed. Of the three left-handed hitters the Phils acquired this off-season, Nix has the lowest lifetime OBP. Sadly, Dontrelle Willis is one of the three.

    Comment by hk — February 14, 2012 @ 3:31 pm

  66. Educated Phillies fans love what Chase Utley brings to the team and recognize that Ryan Howard is about to be one of the most, if not the most, overpaid players in baseball. They also know that Howard was 22nd in the league in wOBA last year and had a higher WRC+ than he did in his 48 HR 2008 season. If Howard gets healthy, educated Phillies fans expect him to produce more .350+ wOBA seasons. Educated Phillies fans are also content with Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino (even with the expected offensive regression), a full season of Hunter Pence and Carlos Ruiz. Educated Phillies fans are a little unsure of what they will get from LF this year, but they’re also not so quick to write off Dom Brown yet.

    Comment by hk — February 14, 2012 @ 3:57 pm

  67. I wish I was in Mario Party.

    Comment by Ludwig von Koopa — February 14, 2012 @ 4:30 pm

  68. Yay!

    Comment by blurba — February 14, 2012 @ 5:09 pm

  69. Nay!

    Comment by BC — February 14, 2012 @ 7:09 pm

  70. Yea I think that’s definitely part of it.

    Comment by JC — February 14, 2012 @ 7:29 pm

  71. Not that it’s an exhaustive study or anything, and it’s hard to tell without looking further whether NLE staff’s are getting better or offense’s getting worse (and the scoring environment overall is decreased), but here’s the NLE teams’ FIPs over the last 3 years:

    TM … 2011 … 2010 … 2009
    ——————————-
    PHL … 3.24 … 3.39 … 4.36
    ATL … 3.49 … 3.65 … 3.66
    WAS … 3.83 … 4.12 … 4.82
    FLA … 3.79 … 3.92 … 4.15
    NYM … 4.19 … 4.00 … 4.50

    Scoring is down everywhere.

    DIV … RS/RA ’11 … RS/RA ’10 … RS/RA ’09
    ————————————–
    ALE … 4.8/4.5 … 4.8/4.4 … 5.1/4.8
    ALC … 4.3/4.6 … 4.4/4.6 … 4.6/4.9
    ALW … 4.2/4.1 … 4.1/4.2 … 4.8/4.6
    NLE … 4.1/4.0 … 4.4/4.2 … 4.6/4.6
    NLC … 4.2/4.4 … 4.3/4.6 … 4.3/4.5
    NLW … 4.0/4.0 … 4.3/4.2 … 4.4/4.3

    The NLE and ALW have experienced the greatest reduction in runs scored per game since 2009.

    The teams, in general, are significantly better in 2011 than they are in 2009, with the Nats making major improvement, and Philly as well.

    Comment by CircleChange11 — February 14, 2012 @ 8:14 pm

  72. hk is an educated fan

    Comment by nik — February 14, 2012 @ 8:38 pm

  73. with halladay and lee in a rotation, anything is possible

    Comment by alex — February 14, 2012 @ 9:01 pm

  74. obviously young talent doesn’t always get better, likewise, old talent doesn’t always get worse. If that were the case, the Cards and Phillies would have missed the playoffs last year and Atlanta would have been in. Instead, Lee, Halladay, and Berkman had great years and Heyward sucked.

    In general that’s how it seems to be. I really think the hitting coach had a lot to do with it. That much of a drop in OBP can’t be “just variance” can it?

    Comment by Antonio Bananas — February 14, 2012 @ 11:47 pm

  75. So wait, the Red Sox are a better shot than teh Rangers, Rays, Giants, and Braves? Then again, I guess odds are also based on people’s expectations, which Red Sox fans, and east coasters in general always boost their odds.

    Odds are based more on what will get people to bet an even amount, not necessarily actual likelihood. Let’s see, Phillies, most popular NL power team, Yankees, most popular AL power team, Angels, made the biggest splash, Red Sox, every frat boys’ favorite team and they love to bet mommy and daddy’s money, Tigers, made a big splash, Rangers, grossly underrated in the odds, Rays, equally underrated given their superior talent to many teams ranked ahead of them, Cards, always have optimistic fans, Marlins, made huge splashes with big names everyone knows, no way in hell they finish with a better record than Atlanta unless something catastrophic happens to Atlanta and everything goes perfect for the Fish.

    In other words, no, not “nuff said”. Odds makers want equal money on every team that way they make money.

    Comment by Antonio Bananas — February 14, 2012 @ 11:52 pm

  76. What are the projected W/L based on objective research without an alterior motive?

    Comment by Antonio Bananas — February 14, 2012 @ 11:53 pm

  77. I hope the Phils suck this season so badly they are trading pitchers at the trade deadline!

    Comment by kick me in the GO NATS — February 15, 2012 @ 2:05 am

  78. /WIP’d

    Comment by bflaff — February 15, 2012 @ 12:07 pm

  79. More important than the Bench coming through will be Utley having a very good year. Count on Howard to do the same stats, but Chase will have a defining year, good or bad. The injury excuses are a mute point now. He can either play with expectation, or the Phils will be in a offensive rebuild mode. The core needs to turn this into the WS Year.

    Comment by Lucky_Nucky — February 15, 2012 @ 2:19 pm

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