FanGraphs Baseball

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  1. Is Alex Cobb no longer a prospect? Or does he not rank in the top 15 (16)?

    Comment by Dave I — February 28, 2012 @ 3:26 pm

  2. He has more than 50 innings pitched, so no longer considered a “rookie”.

    Comment by Levi — February 28, 2012 @ 3:48 pm

  3. No longer a prospect, but I wonder where he would have been ranked.

    Comment by Expos67 — February 28, 2012 @ 4:10 pm

  4. I would have probably ranked him in the 9-12 range,

    Comment by Marc Hulet — February 28, 2012 @ 4:45 pm

  5. I thought Beckham’s defense had significantly improved

    Comment by YanksFanInBeantown — February 28, 2012 @ 5:01 pm

  6. You’re underselling Torres’s stuff a bit. In his cup of coffee last year, his fastball averaged 93, not 89-93. And while the velocity might have been higher because he was coming out of the bullpen (although most of those innings came in a virtual start), the quality of the changeup was unmistakable.

    Torres’s changeup had more movement (both horizontal and vertical) than Shields, Lincecum, Hamels, or any other famous changeups I’ve thought to compare it to. It has plus plus potential.

    Comment by Whelk — February 28, 2012 @ 5:07 pm

  7. Can you elaborate on your Cobb analysis?

    Comment by JROSS — February 28, 2012 @ 5:51 pm

  8. With Torres I spoke more to what I saw in one specific outing and it was underwhelming but also noted he was “off” that day. Scouts definitely feel his changeup is a plus weapon.

    Comment by Marc Hulet — February 28, 2012 @ 5:58 pm

  9. Cobb as a #9-12 prospect? He’s dominated every level, and dominated in his MLB callup, save his 1st game when he was tipping pitches and last game when he was injured needing surgery.
    It is one thing to rate players simply on ceiling(which you did), but you have to account for the probability of a player reaching that ceiling. Cobb could pitch for the Rays right now, and is a better option then Davis IMO. His velocity averaged 91-92 which is avg, but he has a true swing and miss pitch at the Big League level in his changeup. Obviously I’m a Cobb fan.

    Comment by td32 — February 28, 2012 @ 7:50 pm

  10. A change-up is also about deception, release point (how similar it is to the fastball release) speed differential, and very importantly location; and is not simply about movement. While the movement is impressive there’s more to that pitch than that; let’s go easy with the comps simply based on movement and calling it potentially “plus plus”

    If he’s been walking 4-5/9IP at every level above rookie ball I’m guessing that’s not just fastball command and he still needs to refine command of that pitch as well.

    And his average fastball in the bigs last year was either 92 or 92.2, not 93…(per the f/x data on this site) and the very few velocity charts here due to the limited sample size seem to be in the 90-93mph range which seems consistent with Marc’s summary

    Comment by Tom — February 28, 2012 @ 8:14 pm

  11. Does Beckham have the talent to play CF?

    Comment by Josh — February 28, 2012 @ 8:20 pm

  12. Cobb was great in his callup and performed admirably at every level of the minors despite being relatively unheralded. I don’t see how he’s behind some pitchers who are likely going to be long men or relievers at the show. He’ll be a solid 3-4 for someone if not for the Rays.

    Comment by pudieron89 — February 28, 2012 @ 8:33 pm

  13. It has, I really don’t understand the overwhelmingly pessimistic review here. I don’t really have a problem with the positioning, moreso the overall negativity of the blurb.

    Especially since Marc mentions he hit for surprising power on his callup to AAA and in the AFL. Then says he needs to develop power to have a shot at being a ML regular…if anything, his problem was discipline upon his promotion.

    Comment by pudieron89 — February 28, 2012 @ 8:35 pm

  14. BJ 2.0 eh?

    Comment by pudieron89 — February 28, 2012 @ 8:38 pm

  15. Small sample size for the power.

    Comment by Marc Hulet — February 28, 2012 @ 10:10 pm

  16. I don’t understand Guerrieri 3rd here. He has yet to throw a pro pitch.

    Comment by bender — February 28, 2012 @ 11:14 pm

  17. Fair point about AFL power numbers, but his ISO did tick up last season in AA, and his SO% was under 20 for the first time.

    Would you be willing to put a probability on him just being a super raw player who underwhelms in the minors, but then really jumps late to become at least a good MLB player, albeit probably not at SS? Adam Jones was kind of like that.

    Comment by Paul — February 29, 2012 @ 9:39 am

  18. Are there any catchers worth watching in the Rays’ system?

    Comment by Mike Green — February 29, 2012 @ 9:52 am

  19. I’d have Mahtook at 3. Think he is really going to surprise people this year.
    As for a sleeper, what about Matt Bush? 3.21 K/BB, 35 K% – could be a shutdown MLB reliever this year.

    Comment by cookiedabookie — February 29, 2012 @ 10:06 am

  20. I know there’s more to a change than movement, as with any pitch. But you work with the info you have. Show me a pitch with movement that far above the norm that’s not plus, and I’ll back off my hype. I haven’t found one.

    As for velocity, your number comes from all fastballs. Mine from just the for seamers as categorized on Brooks Baseball. I haven’t looked closely at those classifications for Torres myself, and I think that can get circular when talking about speed, so point taken.

    Comment by Whelk — February 29, 2012 @ 10:15 am

  21. Wasn’t trying to jump on you or be overly critical if it came off that way. Thanks for the info.

    Comment by Whelk — February 29, 2012 @ 10:20 am

  22. I’ve gone down the Matt Bush road too many times to put too much faith in his revival…

    Comment by Marc Hulet — February 29, 2012 @ 10:32 am

  23. Base on pure potential Guerrieri has a higher ceiling. I thought the quote from BA spoke for itself in terms of his potential… crazy good if he can stay focused.

    Comment by Marc Hulet — February 29, 2012 @ 10:34 am

  24. They have a couple of (formerly) highly-regarded amateur players that have struggled in pro ball: Justin O’Conner and Luke Bailey. Way too early to give up on either one but they’d both be in the 20-25 range in the rankings.

    Comment by Marc Hulet — February 29, 2012 @ 10:36 am

  25. Thanks, Marc. I guess the organization has decided that there are cheap options on the open market for above-replacement level catchers, like Jose Molina. It’s interesting to compare Tampa’s strategy in this regard with Toronto’s.

    Comment by Mike Green — February 29, 2012 @ 10:54 am

  26. Me too. I don’t think his probable output this year will really surprise anybody who is familiar with Mike Mahtook though. He’s being largely underrated though..

    Comment by Stan Gable — February 29, 2012 @ 12:33 pm

  27. I’m with you. Alex Cobb is a nice mix of reasonable upside & probability. Viewing him pitch is extremely informative in my opinion.

    Comment by Stan Gable — February 29, 2012 @ 12:34 pm

  28. Are ANY of the Top 5 prospects in these organizations college players?

    From what I have seen they are all essentially [1] HS draftees, [2] IFAs.

    Obviously the best talent gets drafted younger.

    I wonder if this has much to do with travel/showcase baseball where HS players are no longer limited to the team/competition/talent in their area, but have been playing on all-star tea,ms against other all-star teams numerous times per year in events where scouts can see 20+ teams each featuring 3-4 that would be considered draft prospects.

    Comment by CircleChange11 — February 29, 2012 @ 2:43 pm

  29. It is insane that they have a strong and young rotation of 6 in the Majors and between 4 and 6 strong Starters coming through the Minors.

    Comment by Matty Brown — March 1, 2012 @ 8:13 am

  30. where does Jake Hager rank here, i think your really underselling him.

    Comment by mwash1983 — March 1, 2012 @ 8:07 pm

  31. What about Tyler Bortnick? Solid batting numbers last season with good gap power and what seems to either be awesome speed or smart baserunning (or both) with 43 SB and only 4 CS, not to mention an impressive 1.18 BB/K ratio.

    Comment by Steve W — April 19, 2012 @ 3:05 am

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