FanGraphs Baseball

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  1. So what do you think we should expect from Mat Latos in 2012, then? Having pitched in Petco his whole career he had a shining 3.48 Career SIERA. That drops all the way to a 2.87 Career tERA. Now he’s moving to a park where he StatCorner ranks as a Park Factor of 103 for both LHB/RHB wOBA, so hitter-friendly-ish. There’s a career .46 ERA difference in his home/road splits.

    Any thoughts on what his 2012 ERA might look like?

    Comment by Joe — February 28, 2012 @ 12:13 pm

  2. Maybe I’m missing something, but it seems like what is being captured in this series is how the estimators will perform for pitchers who do NOT move teams year to year (since most don’t), and not the estimators’ inherent ability to predict performance in a given park type or by a given pitcher type.

    So when FIP did well in hitter’s parks, this is because most pitchers pitching in Year 1 in a hitter’s park were still pitching there the next year, and FIP actually counted the extra home runs in year 1 against them (instead of just fly balls), leading to more year to year correlation. tERA counts actual home runs, too, which is why it’s similarly powerful in environments where HR/FB is likely to be higher than average. In places where batted balls are less dangerous overall, variance in K rate and BB rate becomes (more) paramount to explaining the difference in pitcher performance, which is why SIERA and xFIP rule pitcher’s parks.

    FIP or tERA would be the last thing I’d look at for a pitcher moving from an extreme pitcher’s park to an extreme hitter’s park, since they will include more of those extreme effects than other estimators. Pineda’s 2011 tERA was affected by Safeco’s HR suppression; why would I want to carry that HR rate over to Yankee Stadium? Once he pitches a year in Yankee Stadium, THEN you look at FIP/tERA to think about 2013.

    Comment by toby — March 7, 2012 @ 1:47 pm

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