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  1. “You can’t run a fantasy team like this and win, let alone a major league team.”

    Set-up. Punch. Nice.

    Comment by Slappy White — August 11, 2009 @ 9:32 am

  2. Rios is a good player, no doubt about it. Gives the Sox an excellent shot at catching Detroit, but hasn’t Rios gone from under-rated to a little over-rated? His 2007-8 values are created in large part by an offensive outlier in ’07 and defensive one in ’08.

    It’s worth noting that his line drive rate is down nearly 10% this year, maybe that’s a coincedence but it roughly mirrors the decline in BABiP. Also, while the Cell is a hitters park, Rios career numbers show that the Rogers Centre was very good to him.

    Like I said, I think he’s a good player, but as teams get a little smarter (or get economically pressured to be smarter) I wonder how that contract will look in a year or 2. How many good players will make 60M over the next 5 years?

    Comment by rizzo — August 11, 2009 @ 9:36 am

  3. His line drive rate is 18.4% this year and was 20.8% last year. I guess you could say that it is down by 10% in that 2 is 10% of 20, but that decrease means that he is hitting 2 less line drives for every 100 times he makes contact. So like 6 or 7 less line drives over the course of a season.

    And a lot of players are going to be making 60M over the next 5 years.

    Comment by Davidceisen — August 11, 2009 @ 9:43 am

  4. Gosh darn it, the Mets should have made a claim. I would have traded Mets prospects for Rios much less get him for free.

    Like the White Sox, they have money coming off the books and and with Rios in the fold, they could move Beltran over to RF to save his knees while also covering that vast cavern in Citi.

    I think teams are getting a bit smarter about salaries, but not *that* much smarter. They basically colluded over this winter, blaming the economy and what not for depressing salaries for the not-quite-superstar echelon of players. Teams won’t be so lucky, and players so gullible, next winter.

    Comment by metsinnats — August 11, 2009 @ 9:46 am

  5. I am sure in an ideal (fantasy) world Wells would’ve been claimed and Rios slides into CF where his bat is more than playable and glove valuable. But we needed to cut one of them for financial relief, the only one who had any chance of that was Rios. C’est la vie. I smell an ownership change.

    Comment by Matt B. — August 11, 2009 @ 9:47 am

  6. Mets couldn’t have made a claim, since we would have passed through the entire AL first. Which he didn’t.

    Comment by Dan — August 11, 2009 @ 9:55 am

  7. I think the contention that he will be more valuable in CF is flawed. If Rios is a +10 RF he should be a +0 CF, unless he has unique skills that are specially suited to CF. The positional adjustments account for the fact it is harder to play CF and keep player values relatively stable across position changes.

    Comment by Jon K — August 11, 2009 @ 9:56 am

  8. Jon K is correct. You have to look at wins above average at his position plus the positional adjustment.

    If he has nothing special he is leveraging at any particular position, then the sum of the two will be (pretty much) identical, regardless of the position he plays. That is the purpose of the positional adjustment.

    Comment by TangoTiger — August 11, 2009 @ 10:00 am

  9. You’re right. I’ll make the correction.

    Comment by Erik Manning — August 11, 2009 @ 10:04 am

  10. 2% of 600 ab’s is 12, not 6-7. Accounting for K’s and HR’s Rios base for determining his BABiP is roughly 500 AB’s. 12/500 = .024, which is very close to his decline in BABiP. Like I said maybe that’s a coincedence…..

    Again, I don’t think Rios is a bad player, or way over-paid, but I do think it’s silly to think he’s going to earn at his 07-08 rates.

    The fact that a lot of players are going to earn 60M over 5 years only partially matters, the Zito, Wells etc. contracts can’t be undone. The White Sox made that choice yesterday. I guess my point was that going forward how many guys are going to get 60M over 5 years that are worse than Rios? Long term couldn’t the Sox acquire a player similar to Rios for less than 60M and spend the extra money elsewhere?

    http://www.sabertoothedtoger.blogspot.com

    Comment by rizzo — August 11, 2009 @ 10:05 am

  11. Hilarious thought: Riccardi is a Moneyball man, Beane disciple. Kenny Williams tends to get hit hard.

    Williams knows what he’s doing. Sometimes does weird things, but this was really good.

    Comment by Joe R — August 11, 2009 @ 10:09 am

  12. I haven’t seen this mentioned anywhere, but how does the evaluation of this move change for the Jays if it’s part of a plan to resign Halladay? If can they take the $62 mill or so that was owed Rios through 2014, tack on an additional $5.6 mill per year from 2011-2015 and give Halladay a 5yr-90mill extension? Especially considering they’ve got a theoretically capable OF in Snider coming up, they’d have to be a much better team without Rios but with Halladay, than the other way around.

    This is all moot, of course, if it’s a pure salary dump and they still don’t plan to keep Halladay.

    Comment by Bob — August 11, 2009 @ 10:17 am

  13. The perception that KW and the Sox are some neanderthal franchise with no saber guys is flat wrong. Bill Hahn has spoken numerous times about how sabermetrics influences their thinking and KW is a Stanford educated former player.

    Are they the Red Sox or A’s? No, but they certainly have saber guys in their front office and it does influence their decisions.

    Comment by Matt — August 11, 2009 @ 10:18 am

  14. It’s the obvious FJMing of the team (a little bit unfairly). Kenny Williams isn’t the most awesome GM ever, but after he came to terms over what a fluke 2005 was, he’s done good work. Drafting Beckham, euro soccer style stealing Rios. Now Chicago has a pretty solid lineup

    1) Beckham
    2) Rios
    3) Dye
    4) Thome
    5) Konerko
    6) Quentin
    7) Pierzynski
    8) Ramirez
    9) Getz

    That’s pretty good.

    Comment by Joe R — August 11, 2009 @ 10:26 am

  15. I think you mean Rick Hahn, their asst gm.

    Comment by Vince B — August 11, 2009 @ 10:33 am

  16. “If he has nothing special he is leveraging at any particular position, then the sum of the two will be (pretty much) identical, regardless of the position he plays. That is the purpose of the positional adjustment.”

    This sounds to me like it means players switching positions will have the same total value at either position? Can you elaborate on this? If that were true then it doesn’t seem like it would matter what position anyone plays as long as they’re a good player (generally, some positions require different skills so that will be a factor), which intuitively doesn’t make much sense. I feel like I have to have the interpretation wrong.

    Comment by B — August 11, 2009 @ 10:38 am

  17. Rios has had good range in his career, though, meaning I think he could transition to CF smoothly, and essentially increase his value.

    SSS alert, but fangraphs has him at +12.8 UZR/150 in CF. Baseball prospectus has him at average, though.

    Comment by Joe R — August 11, 2009 @ 10:41 am

  18. Yea I’m not sure why I said Bill Hahn. I did indeed mean Rick Hahn.

    Comment by Matt — August 11, 2009 @ 10:48 am

  19. To be fair, there are a lot of good OF’s about to hit the market (Holliday, Bay, Crawford, Werth). But among the ones that will, I think only Crawford will be bargain basemented.

    Comment by Joe R — August 11, 2009 @ 10:52 am

  20. While I generally agree that a player tends to maintain equal value when switching positions, is it really a foregone conclusion that Rios will have a defensive drop-off roughly similar to the positional gain in the Fangraph WAR calculations? I think this is a general assumption, and it often holds true. At the same time, there are many examples of players who haven’t experienced that level of drop-off when changing positions (or playing multiple positions).

    Some isolated examples: Alex Rios (13.7 UZR/150 in RF; 12.8 in CF (SSS alert for CF)); Ichiro (10.4 in RF; 7.7 in CF); Marco Scutaro (0.1 at 2B; -0.5 at SS); Asdrubal Cabrera (-0.3 at 2B; -1.8 at SS (SSS for both)); Jhonny Peralta (-3.6 at 3B (SSS); -5.8 at SS); Michael Young (-13.2 at 3B (SSS); -13.5 at SS).

    By the same token, there are other players who experience a drop-off much larger than the positional adjustment: Randy Winn (16.0 UZR/150 in RF; -0.8 in CF); Shane Victorino (19.3 in RF; 2.8 in CF).

    Just a reminder that the generality is just a generality, and inidividual players have been able to handle more difficult positions without too much of a drop-off in UZR, Ichiro being a particularly good example.

    Comment by mymrbig — August 11, 2009 @ 10:57 am

  21. And as I said earlier, I think Rios has the skill set to move over to CF and increase his value. He won’t be a gold glover, but I think he’ll be average to good.

    Comment by Joe R — August 11, 2009 @ 11:01 am

  22. The Fielding Bible rates him as being excellent (though I don’t have the numbers in front of me).

    Comment by scott — August 11, 2009 @ 11:25 am

  23. It’s their player development that has increased ten fold since they brought in Buddy Bell and started taking position players in the first round instead of horse-shit arms like Lance Broadway and Royce Ring. A dedication to player development – smart player development, at least – attributes to their success, as well. Selections like Beckham, Jared Mitchell, Daniel Hudson, Chris Getz, etc. is a testament to developing in the minors. I think Kenny has proven himself to be a top-tier GM that makes smart decisions at the major league level and isn’t afraid to get rid of a prospect.

    Sadly, looks like he might be getting burned on Chris Carter and Brandon Allen. Carter has been on Goldstein’s MiLB update and really looks like a solid prospect.

    Comment by scott — August 11, 2009 @ 11:32 am

  24. ” I would have traded Mets prospects for Rios much less get him for free.”

    Isn’t this the exact same thing from Toronto’s perspective?

    Comment by Steve — August 11, 2009 @ 11:34 am

  25. Rios is a very good/great fielder, but I just do not trust UZR, WAR calcs with the heavy emphasis on fielding components, dollar values based thereon, etc., enough to think Rios is worth that contract for the next several years as definitively as you seem to. First, even based on those estimates, he isn’t worth that contract this year. He vastly exceeded it last year, but I think that it is very possible that overstates the value above replacement of his fielding.

    He hit 15 homers with 44 walks as a corner outfielder last year playing a full year. He is worse this year. Sure, lowish babip and all, but I nevertheless have a hard time believeing his defense makes up for fairly pedestrian offense, especially when even UZR suggests it just isn’t enough to make it up.

    Comment by wobatus — August 11, 2009 @ 11:41 am

  26. Win some, lose some, White Sox have the resources to make the occasional regrettable prospect trade.

    Carter’s 22, in his 4th pro season, and in AA, too, so I’m still 50/50 on him.

    Comment by Joe R — August 11, 2009 @ 11:46 am

  27. Halladay wasn’t going to stay for money. He wants to go to the playoffs. If he was doubtful that the Jays could do that before I would bet his mind is made up now.

    Comment by jw — August 11, 2009 @ 11:57 am

  28. Was Rios really their best position player? I would’ve thought Aaron Hill. Well, Hill is now their best position player anyway.

    Comment by Mike B. — August 11, 2009 @ 12:20 pm

  29. Huh?

    Carter netted Carlos Quentin. I’d trade Carter again tommorrow.

    Allen is way too early.

    Comment by Terry — August 11, 2009 @ 12:45 pm

  30. So KW takes Carlos Quentin from the D’Backs for not much and now takes Rios from the Jays for nothing. There must be a half a dozen GM’s kicking themselves right now.

    Comment by Aaron B. — August 11, 2009 @ 1:07 pm

  31. I am not a fan of this move theoretically but I often think teams relative payrolls get ignored when evaluating players values. Yes, Rios should be worth his deal, yes they should of got something for him or moved Halladay or whatever else got them in this situation. But, is it really that crazy to say I am not sure we can win with rios taking up 1/7 our payroll? To me this is less of a bad move itself but it makes the failure to move halladay look even worse because its clear the jays are not going to win anytime soon paying guys 10 mil or so to produce close to that much value.

    Comment by walkoffblast — August 11, 2009 @ 1:50 pm

  32. I agree. A lot of stat-minded people like to point to the underlying numbers and claim that Rios isn’t “overpaid,” but that’s based on a dollar value per win that not all teams can afford. Certainly, teams can’t afford to pay the full $4+ million per win (the figure used to calculate values for players on this site) for EVERY player. A team like the Yankees can pay a higher percentage of players at this kind of rate, while a team like the Marlins can’t. The Blue Jays are in a tough economic situation because of the value of the Canadian dollar, which people seem to overlook.

    Also, who is to say that Rios is (or was) their best position player? Not counting Scutaro’s career year, I would say that Hill and Lind would have been better candidates for that tag.

    Comment by WY — August 11, 2009 @ 2:01 pm

  33. You know….he can steal bases at a 77% success rate too…and hit 40+ doubles a year with nearly 10 triples (doesn’t sound like a lot but it is). Is it really surprising that a guy that can be among the better base stealers, and among the league leaders in doubles and triples, is also a good fielder or be a valuable player, even in a offensive position? And while UZR might not be terribly reliable for just one season, Rois now has 6 season with more than 100 games (809 total) and is a +13.5 fielder over CF and RF (rough 1:7 split). He’s a very good defender, accept it. He might not be a great CFer, but he’d at least be average.

    Now Rois might not maintain a performance level worth ~$20M, as he’s showing this year, but expecting him to be worth ~$12M/year, his contract average value, is hardly a stretch. Over the last 4 years (prorating him for the rest of this year at his current pace, even though he should improve), he’s been worth about 15M/year. This is including what could like be his career worst season. Rois is worth this contract, and this is a good move by the White Sox and Williams, who I generally think is a poor GM.

    Comment by Wally — August 11, 2009 @ 2:04 pm

  34. Why would the other GMs be kicking themselves? There were other teams who could have put in a claim on him. They also could have made a more aggressive play for him at the July 31 deadline. They may be kicking themselves somewhat about Quentin, but unless Rios shows a huge bounceback, it seems that other teams (at least those ahead of the White Sox in the waiver wire) were content to pass on him for fear that they would have to do what the White Sox are doing, which is to pay his entire salary for five-plus years.

    Also, I don’t understand why people are saying the White Sox took Rios for “nothing.” The money they are paying them is hardly “nothing.”

    If a team claimed Carlos Silva or Barry Zito or Alfonso Soriano off waivers and absorbed their entire contract, would you say that they got the player for “nothing”?

    Comment by WY — August 11, 2009 @ 2:06 pm

  35. I agree. Aaron Hill, followed by Adam Lind, then possibly Rios after that.

    Comment by WY — August 11, 2009 @ 2:07 pm

  36. The Canadian dollar is actually way up this year–it’s about halfway between this past offseason and the one before, and both those years they spent $100MM Canadian. The real sticking point is the variability–can the Jays afford to sign long term contracts when they have no idea whether their purchasing power will drop 20% year to year? Even if it costs the Jays $8-10MM for a year of a guy like Abreu this offseason, at least they know how much they’re going to owe him.

    Comment by Torgen — August 11, 2009 @ 2:14 pm

  37. Hi.

    Comment by Marco Scutaro — August 11, 2009 @ 2:15 pm

  38. Hi Marco. I mentioned you in another post below. But I didn’t mention you here because you are a free agent and having such an extreme career year. If they resign you and you repeat this year’s stellar performance, you will zoom to the top of this list. ;)

    Comment by WY — August 11, 2009 @ 2:18 pm

  39. One other thing I am not quite ready to get on board with is the idea his offensive numbers this year are predominantly lacking due to BABIP variance. He does have the track record to justify saying he should probably be above average but with his speed numbers down I would expect a non-luck related drop as well .

    Comment by walkoffblast — August 11, 2009 @ 2:51 pm

  40. Certainly a guy with his speed should have a higher infield single rate than Aaron Hill, who has all of 4 stolen bases this year.

    Comment by Torgen — August 11, 2009 @ 2:58 pm

  41. That stat is not a very good one, at least used that way. Aaron Hill has a higher IFH% for his career than Rios does and Rios numbers this year in IFH% are in line with the rest of his career. I was referencing two numbers I see out of line with his career numbers this year are his speed score and range. Since he has a .294 BABIP this season I am cautioning against labeling him a surefire .330 BABIP guy, especially if he loses a step.

    Comment by walkoffblast — August 11, 2009 @ 3:31 pm

  42. One point that I haven’t seen mentioned is that the White Sox have been looking for a CF ever since they decided that Brian Anderson was not the long term answer at the position. Each year there are a handful of CF candidates available in free agency but Kenny, like most good GMs, seems to decide that a player is worth a set value and is seemingly unwilling to overpay just to land a player. On the other hand Kenny has been aggressive at giving his own players extensions and trading for player who still have multiple years remaining on their contracts. Chicago fans frequently hear Williams discuss “cost certainty”. We may debate whether or not Rios is worth his contract or whether Ricchardi made a poor move, but no one seems to dispute that Rios makes the White Sox a better team moving forward and solidifies the CF position for a least the next 3 years or so. After that Jordan Danks or Mitchell could be ready to play CF and Rios can move back to RF. The Sox are closer to winning another world championship with this move and the Peavy deal.

    Comment by Rick — August 11, 2009 @ 4:00 pm

  43. He had a lot of doubles and triples and still OPS’d .798 last year. And yes, he is a good base stealer. I just do not buy that he was worth 15 million per year over tyhe last few years, certainly not the 20 some odd as calculated here for last year. Appreciate that this site emphasizes defense but i really do not trust yet if they have honed it down to the precision level they seem to assume, this much d is worth yay many dollars, etc. And i do accept that he is a good fielder. I think he is a good player. But for the jays, they couldn’t really afford him.

    Comment by wobatus — August 11, 2009 @ 4:22 pm

  44. The White Sox have had their share of fame…now let’s see them shock the fans a bit more with some surprise wins-shall we????

    Comment by henry young — August 11, 2009 @ 4:36 pm

  45. It’s funny, because I think the CDN dollar was at .95 cents when Rios was let go. Of course, it’s dropped to about 92 cents with the NEWS that Rios will no longer be supporting the entire Canadian Economy.

    I once polished Alex Rios 1200 dollar shoes, while a Vietnamese whore (RIP) spit polished his scalp.

    Comment by kris — August 11, 2009 @ 6:08 pm

  46. fielding bible has him at +7 over 834 innings played

    Comment by redbird — August 11, 2009 @ 6:44 pm

  47. Rios’ BABIP is down not due to luck, but due to a large increase in IFFB% and a large increase in weak groundballs back to the pitcher (last year in 77 games at Rogers Centre he had 4, this year in 56 games he’s had 9, according to hit charts at mlb.com and foxsports.com). He’s just not making solid contact with the ball. That’s been the case all year.

    Comment by AJS — August 11, 2009 @ 7:17 pm

  48. I don’t understand why this is so ridiculous. A player with a contract that is exactly what they should get on the free agent market has 0 value to their team (not positive, not negative).

    Giving him away now is kind of like pretending he’s a free agent again and letting someone else sign him at the going rate for free agent wins. Sure, if Toronto can’t afford market rates then they shouldn’t have signed the contract in the first place, but that doesn’t make this move itself inherently bad. It just makes it look like management doesn’t have a plan.

    Comment by Matt — August 11, 2009 @ 7:26 pm

  49. I have watched Rios since he was first called up. He just isn’t the difference maker the Jays hoped he would be be. He wills a nice role on a championship team but isn’t and never will be any better than what he is now. Which is acceptable, rarely does anyone live up to the hype.

    Comment by Slick — August 11, 2009 @ 7:44 pm

  50. Center Fielders since the departure of Rowand:

    Podsednik, Wise, Kotsay, Swisher, Anderson, Griffey, Lillibridge, Ramirez, Mackowiak, Sweeney, Owens, Erstad, Gonzalez, and Terrero.

    Not quite as horrifying as the Bears’ QB list from 85-to 08, but still…you can see why Alex Rios is blessed by the bigotry of low expectations.

    Comment by ochozero — August 11, 2009 @ 7:50 pm

  51. Yes, Who says a WAR is worth $4M? Obviously not JP Ricciardi. The Yankees, Red Sox, Angels and a few others are willing to pay far more than that. The Pirates, Royals, Nationals, Jays, Padres and many others won’t go that high.

    Still, I think the big disconnect between fans and management is that the GM sees the salary as a liability and the fans see the player as an asset.

    Comment by Mike — August 11, 2009 @ 10:02 pm

  52. Exactly right about the defensive value, wobatus. I think it is really misleading to attach the dollar values (to the nearest tenth of a million) without a bold-faced disclaimer that (a) they are heavily influenced by defensive stats and (b) these defensive stats are subject to pretty wild uncertainties and year-to-year variabilities. It’s probably the sloppiest aspect of this site, and it just doesn’t seem like good methodology to toss these dollar values around as if they were really that precise.

    I look at these values and find them interesting, but you really have to take them with a grain of salt. At the very least, these values do not represent cold, hard “facts.” They are rough estimates, based on the further assumption that a win is worth the same amount to all teams in all markets in all phases of the “success cycle.”

    Comment by WY — August 11, 2009 @ 10:49 pm

  53. The Rios contract is pretty heavily backloaded. The Jays got the cheapest two years by far (they paid something like $13-14 million total for the last two seasons). So while I’m all for Rios being a pretty good player and someone who could possibly earn most, if not all, of his hefty contract back, the years of getting any sort of bargain from him are likely gone unless he absolutely mashes for a couple years. It’s not out of the realm of possibility, but if I were paying $12-14 million for an outfielder over the next five-plus years, I am not sure that Alexis Rios would be in my top candidates of guys to acquire to do so.

    Comment by Bodhizefa — August 11, 2009 @ 11:55 pm

  54. I’d like to quickly point out that I was wrong about how little the Jays paid Rios in the last two years. It’s actually been something closer to a mere $7 million as opposed to the $13-14 million I originally posted. The White Sox are on the hook for about $11.75 million per season for the next five years (very slightly less than my original post’s guesstimate). I didn’t want my memory’s guesswork to get in the way of the point I was trying to make — that Alexis Rios isn’t likely to be any kind of a bargain to the White Sox over the next five years. They’re going to have to look for their values elsewhere.

    Comment by Bodhizefa — August 12, 2009 @ 2:53 am

  55. “There‚Äôs some gambling going on here taking on these large contracts, but Rios is a much safer bet than Peavy.”

    How?

    They’re separated by just three months, in Peavy’s favor, while Peavy has averaged — and been more consistent — in WAR over the course of their careers. No peripherals look unfavorably upon Jake this year, either, like they do Rios; in fact, Jake’s k/9 was the highest of his career before his ankle injury. All this while Peavy is under contract for a shorter period of time…

    If you’re trying to say the deal itself — trading four pitching prospects — for Peavy makes that move riskier than adding Rios without giving up anything, then say that. But saying that Peavy himself is riskier than Alex Rios is far from the truth.

    Comment by Marver — August 12, 2009 @ 4:26 am

  56. But Peavy IS riskier than Rios. It’s the very nature of being a big league pitcher. If Peavy is still pitching in 2013, it will surprise me a little. If Peavy still has a fastball above 90mph in 2013, it will surprise me even more. He’s very likely to be a shell of his today self in 3+ years. Very likely indeed.

    Meanwhile, Rios is signed from something akin to $16 million less than Peavy over the next three years and has proven to be fairly durable throughout his career. I’d say the risks inherent in Rios are discernibly lower than those in Peavy. And I’d like to think that’s a majority opinion, too, given the probability of doom of a pitcher’s arm.

    Comment by Bodhizefa — August 12, 2009 @ 6:21 am

  57. Not a fan of the Quentin-Griffey-Dye outfield, I take it?

    Comment by Joe R — August 12, 2009 @ 8:03 am

  58. So is very likely like 70% or something? I find it hard to believe that in 3 years (when he’s 31!) Jake Peavey has a 70% or greater chance to have completely fallen off the map so hard that he no longer can throw above 90MPH.

    This is also the White Sox we are talking about. They do a great job with keeping their pitchers healthy.

    Comment by Matt — August 12, 2009 @ 9:39 am

  59. Wobatus, in case you didn’t know, doubles “only” count as 2 bases, half that of a HR, but are worth more than half a HR in actual run creation. Its better you just forget about OPS. It undervalues OBP terribly and SLG% doesn’t correctly value each base. Its nice and cute, but it sucks at determining a players value. Not to mention it doesn’t even do anything about park factors (Toronto is a slight pitchers park). So again, please just stop with OPS. No one is going to listen to your arguments if you use OPS, at least not here.

    As for the fielding: Yes, Rois’ 2008 UZR is pretty high, but he is a very good fielder. So maybe knock off a full win, that’s still a 4.5 WAR player, and worth about 18M. Which is pretty much the same as his 2007 value, and also his 2006 value if you prorate him for a full season. Rios is a great bet to return to a 4+ WAR player, especially if he moves to center, making this a great pick up by the White Sox.

    Comment by Wally — August 12, 2009 @ 10:57 am

  60. You do realize that between 2006-2007 seasons Rois was worth ~$19M per152 games. Even if we add this year, he’s been worth an average of about $15.6M per 152 games. That’s roughly 4 million over the average salary per season for the remainder of his contract. For a player that’s going to be in his prime for this contract, I’d have to say Rios stands a better chance at being worth more than his contract than being worth less. And it doesn’t appear particularly close either.

    Comment by Wally — August 12, 2009 @ 11:14 am

  61. You’re trying to tell me that the guy who won the NL Cy Young Award three years ago will “be a shell of his today self” at the age of 31 because his fastball — his third best pitch — will “likely” have lost 1.8 miles per hour? Jake Peavy built his career 9.0 K/9 and 3.1 K/BB ratios off his slider, changeup, and fastball movement, not by blowing hitters away. I have reason to believe that skill-set will age much more gracefully than Alex Rios’ already free-falling ISOP.

    Comment by Marver — August 12, 2009 @ 4:43 pm

  62. Wally, I am not able to reply to your post directly so I will do it here.

    Yes, I understand that ops is not a perfect metric. Just a shorthand. If you ignore me for using it, your choice, I can safely say no big loss to you for doing so. Wy seemed to listen to me nevertheless. I also understand park effects. And since you mention that ops (I always preferred slob) undervalues obp it doesn’t exactly help that much for Rios, since he isn’t exactly an obp machine.

    My issue was more with overemphasizing how accurately we can gauge the expected dollar value of his fielding over tyhe next few years. I think he is a good fielder. And he may be an ok value for the White Sox relative to his value to the Jays. Not sure exactly about the White Sox financial resources versus the Jays. I assume the owners of the Jays had some concern about paying as much as they were for Rios. He certainly wasn’t earning that contract this year, admittedly just one year, but that is even assuming we are accurately gauging his fielding and the dollar value thereof.

    Comment by wobatus — August 12, 2009 @ 5:01 pm

  63. Mets also couldn’t have made a claim because of Bernie Madoff I gather.

    Comment by wobatus — August 12, 2009 @ 5:04 pm

  64. SSS caveat and all that, but here’s what Rios has done for the White Sox so far (includes today’s game):

    .156/.167/.266
    1 HR, 1 SB, 1 BB, 17K in 64 AB.

    Everyone still think the White Sox got such a great deal?

    Comment by AJS — September 2, 2009 @ 6:01 pm

  65. I was thinking the same thing, but you beat me to it. Still, two weeks later and things look even worse for the Sox and better for the Blue Jays in terms of this deal.

    Comment by WY — September 17, 2009 @ 8:12 pm

  66. I love baseball and Rudy Ruiz versus Alex Rios the last 2 months. Who’da thunk?

    Comment by wobatus — September 30, 2009 @ 10:51 pm

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