First of all, this is amazing work as always Bradley. I find your mix of wit, graphs, and clear language very enjoyable.
Second of all, why not use wOBA instead of wRC+? Since you’re not trying to normalize for park and league factors, which is the main difference between wOBA and wRC+, then it seems like you might as well just use the former, right?
THIRD of all, I commend you for responding to almost every comment, even the trolls, with thoughtfulness and without snark.
Thanks Matt. I’m waiting for a bus, so I’ve got the time. :)
Well, one of the main reasons for using wRC+ was the + helped with the changing run environments. It doesn’t cancel it out entirely (as noted above), but since the league wOBA has gone from .332 to .316 in just five years –while wRC+ remains at 96 — wRC+ invites less problem on that front.
Hey! HEY! Fangraphs Staff! You posted this NotGraphs article in the wrong place! Get this thing out of here!
“In fact, but ignoring caught stealing — which merely helps to keep the calculations simple — we are assuming each of these base-thieves is a steal master and that the defenses they play against are all equal, neither of which is true.”
I’m I was shaking my head in disapproval every once in a while, and then I read this and punched my f***** monitor.
Comment by Keystone Heavy — March 1, 2012 @ 1:47 pm
So, you are advocating justing turning this into FIP? You know if you use the FIP equation for batters, Ian Kinsler’s FIO (FIB? FIH?) would be .748.
Comment by Keystone Heavy — March 1, 2012 @ 2:09 pm
Wouldn’t it make more sense to make a FIH stat over TYPES of balls in play? Wouldn’t it make more sense find some general rules for BIP and go from there? For example, batters are likely to be able to control their BA on ground balls. But what about LDs and FBs in play? Esp if you were to adjust for park. If so, what would happen if you took IFFBs out of the equation? Or just as SIERA says that pitchers that strike out more batters produce lower BABIPS and HR/FB, what if batters who strike out more/less have higher/lower BABIPs? A SIERA type FIH would be interesting.
I don’t know, I’m no expert. But it just seems to me like doing FIH based off the knowledge of “what batted balls- as a rule do- what” would make more sense. Esp since we know batters have more control over batted ball type than pitchers.
Comment by Keystone Heavy — March 1, 2012 @ 3:39 pm
Why are you graphing FIO (a stat that’s clearly not park-adjusted, as it includes HR% and BABIP) against a park-adjusted stat like RC+? Why not just use wOBA (the not park adjusted version of RC+)? That way, when looking at the biggest differences, we’d be seeing where FIO is “wrong” instead of just seeing a bunch of Rockies and Padres players.
Then again, I’m not sure what use FIO really has in the first place.
Could you personally just create wRCBRAD+ in which you standardize wOBAs without regard to park? I mean, I’d bet wOBAs are pretty normally distributed, so you could just give everyone Z-scores and WOOHOO!
I hate it when people say “how much of your parents money did you waste”. Some of us actually pay our own way through school and aren’t drunk, adderall takin’ pieces of shit who are only going to school so that daddy can justify hiring you.
Comment by Antonio Bananas — March 2, 2012 @ 2:02 am
Yea, that’s a topic that I get fired up about. It’s because virtually every kid I know who’s parents pay his/her way is a brat and I wish their seat in class would be given to a more driven human being.
Comment by Antonio Bananas — March 2, 2012 @ 2:03 am
What if you took a similar equation as the tERA and applied it to hitters, then had some sort of “speed” coefficient. For example, a league average speed guy gets the same worth out of a line drive, a groundball, a flyball, etc. A slow guy probably gets a few less bases on a GB, FB, LD, but a fast guy probably gets more bases.
You don’t need to take fielding out, just adjust for how hard the ball is hit and in which direction and then tweak it based on how fast the guy is.
Comment by Antonio Bananas — March 2, 2012 @ 2:07 am
So…FIP can be recalculated very easily to adjust for different run environments. Do you think you can get FIO to the point where you can say…
The basic formula for FIO is X and if you think the run environment is different than the default setting Y, then you can easily adjust the formula by doing _______.