Beltre and Victorino seem like very different players. I don’t know if averaging nearly 25 hr/season in the safe vs 15 hr/season at citizens are exactly comparable. Seems to me that a lot of Victorino’s value is derived from his speed.
Thank you for mentioning Rollins, as how he was handled will be eerily similar to that of Victorino. The Phils prioritized another option more than the up-the-middle veteran (in 2011 Papelbon, in 2012 Hamels), and although Rollins/Victorino are one of if not the best options available for their position, their age and propensity for the DL will have teams slow-playing for their services. Rollins also asked for 5 years, and no one was willing to offer that (to my knowledge), and he settled with the Phils for a reasonable 3 year deal with a reachable 4th yr option. I’d say Vic gets the same treatment, especially since he has more legit starting-caliber options available to interested teams than Rollins did, let alone that both Bourn and Upton are younger and could be seen as having some upside. My guess is a 3/$39 deal, with a PA option for the 4th year.
Part of the argument for Victorino is that he’s a classy guy in the clubhouse and a high-energy player on the field (like Beltre) — and such intangibles might, and probably should, influence a team’s decision in considering a long-term commitment.
I’d agree that, ideally, being a “classy guy in the clubhouse” should be an part of a team’s decision, but I’ve thought the same thing in the past and seen players leave during free agency. Most recently, Michael Cuddyer left the Twins this offseason, where in spite of his supposed clubhouse leadership the Twins couldn’t (or wouldn’t) make the best offer.
it is shocking no one wanted to give coco crisp, already a year older, a 5 year deal. as for victorino, he won’t get 5 years either, although at least there is a case to be made for it, if it defrays costs for the phillies, allowing them to be flexible with their finances nearterm.
I think the lack of quality CF options will force the Phillies to re-up him unless he has a poor season or gets injured. Bourn, Upton and Victorino will all be FA. Minus the Mets, all the other teams in the NL East will be in the market for a CF (including the Phillies). The Braves may even have a little $$ if Chipper’s ’13 option doesn’t vest (PAs I believe). They’d hate to lose him to up and coming division rivals I would think.
Over the last 3 years, I respect those WAR figures, and take them into account.
Fact is, when Shane is a FA, at the end of this year, he will be the same age as Crisp was this off season… NO?
Fact is, Crisp is the #1 age equivalent comp (of all MLB players ever, up to Victorino’s current age) on BBref at this time. If you have better comps, who are they? Please take into account all seasons up to current age, not just the last 3.
I’m a Phillies fan. I do not hate Victorino. I love him just like the rest of the fan base!
His BBref comps (of which Crisp is just one), have not aged very well, with the notable exception of Jose Cruz. The comps that are nearly the same age (like Crisp) provide little predictive value.
Despite my seeming “negativity”… I am completely OK with pinning my hopes on the fact that Shane works his ass off, as usual, and becomes J.Cruz Sr… and not all the other comps.
But I try to keep my eyes open also.
Its an old team already. CF is (generally, and currently) a young man’s position.
Right. It seems to me that Thursday’s comments about wanting to stay in Philly were Shane’s actual views and Friday’s comments about wanting five years were his agent’s views on trying to recoup some leverage. If the Phils decide that they want to keep Shane, a 3 year deal with a 4th year option sounds likely.
The fact that Shane was the team’s best position player (among all players who were on the team for 2/3 or more of the season) is not crazy at all.
JD Drew anybody? I know he played RF and had a little more power, but they were the same age and he got a 5 year deal.
Comment by Caveman Jones — March 3, 2012 @ 3:11 pm
Rowand is the natural starting spot, as like Victorino, he was an unheralded player who made good as the Phillies starting CF, and turned one monster offensive season into a big contract from the Giants.
We can’t start off a serious discussion with this amount of inaccuracy. Rowand also had what could be considered 2 All-Star quality seasons with the CWS including a WS champ season. Looking back now we mock Rowand and his contract, but at the time he was a pretty good hitting, strong defense CF. No kidding, +12 in ’04, +17 in ’05 … who was known for max effort. Aaron Rowand had a great reputation as a “team guy” and had good performance to go with it. As a full time player from 04 to when he signed his SFG contract, he had basically had seasons of 2, 4, 6, 6. He was good.
Some could say Rowand’s bat was never “that” good and could point to two monster season and a bunch of average to slightly below average seasons at the dish. He continued that and worse as a Giant.
Now how does this play into Victorino? IMO, SV is more like Rowand than the mashers on that list.
My suspicion is that he won’t get a 5-year deal because much of what he does is under-valued, and he already has the reputation as being oft-injured … which generally doesn’t age well. Like Utley, sometimes he’s too tough for his own good, and doesn;t take a day off until he needs 15 of them.
He’s an above average bat + above average glove CF.
I don’t think he’s going to experience drastic reduction in skills and his skills will actually age well. My concern is his games played. He’s tough and he battles through everything and even then misses quite a few games. As he ages “bouncing back” and “fighting through” is going to become tougher.
I would rather pay him a higher yearly salary for a 4-year deal. 4/52 or something like that. I don;t need to give him “Yadi’s contract”.
Comment by CircleChange11 — March 3, 2012 @ 4:00 pm
Your first sentence suggests you are going to question the SV/AR comp by the using the words “amount of inaccuracy”. Then you use the rest of the post to agree that indeed Victorino and Rowand ARE good comps, or I am just reading your first sentence wrong?
No it’s not a valid statement. There’s no evidence at all that Zimmernan’s defense was anywhere close to being properly compensated or even valued at all. Zimmerman’s free agent years were locked up at $15 million per. That’s what his offense alone suggests he’s worth. You can argue hometown discount all you want but if the true value of his defense was at all being factored in, he would’ve been EASILY getting $18+ million a year even with the “hometown discount”
He’ll be on the market that could include Michael Bourn, B.J. Upton, and Josh Hamilton though.
Speaking of Bourn, reading this made me slightly more optimistic about the Braves re-signing him.
Comment by Undocorkscrew — March 4, 2012 @ 4:09 am
My guess is that Philly is hoping that John Mayberry continues to play at least as well as he did down the stretch in 2011, in which case the Phillies can let someone else overpay the aging/injury-prone Shane Victorino next winter, move Mayberry over to CF, and promote Domonic Brown to be the team’s every day LF.
If the team is going to spend a fair amount of money on a position player next winter, that player might be a 3B, not Victorino. Placido Polanco is looking pretty close to being done as a productive every day player and I don’t believe there are any promising 3Bs in Philly’s farm system. I’m not sure what 3Bs will be available next winter; I tend to think that Philly should’ve spent Jonathan Papelbon’s money on Aramis Ramirez this past offseason, but whatever. Maybe they end up targeting Chase Headley. Headley doesn’t sound too exciting but this isn’t exactly a golden era right now for 3Bs. There’s Evan Longoria, Ryan Zimmerman, Adrian Beltre, Alex Rodriguez, and then what?
In any event, re-signing Cole Hamels will be the team’s #1 offseason priority, presumably.
-Eagle Scout, Lou Gehrig Award winner, Branch Rickey Award winner
-started a Foundation which has given $1m to renovate the Boys and Girls Club in Philly, provides free tickets/T-shirts/concessions to Police Athletic League-Children’s Hospital of Philadephia-Special Olympics.
-funds training programs on Maui to teach construction skills to underprivileged youth, through building free homes for the elderly.
-funds afterschool programs to battle dyslexia on Maui
-funds programs to teach new parents skills needed to raise their disabled child
The world needs more classless scumbags, apparently.