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  1. I think you should doc Granderson at least 1 WAR for the fact that every time I listen to ESPN Radio and I hear a highlight where he hits a home run, I have to listen to their announcer with his “The Grandyman can, the Grandyman can!” song.

    Comment by Dan in Philly — March 7, 2012 @ 2:05 pm

  2. My feedback on the top 2 of this list is similar to my criticism of your rankings for 1B ( Prince and Cabrera both being elite 1B).

    Gardner is at least as good defensively as Granderson and an argument could be made they should swap positions. There aren’t many teams that could have their star CFer injured and not see a decrease, at least defensively, in CF performance.

    Injury aside, Carl Crawford has always been viewed as someone who could play CF, but simply has been on teams that already had good defensive CFers (Upton and Ellsbury). He may not be listed as the backup CF, but the fact that he is at LEAST capable defensively, when healthy, means he should probably be included.

    Conclusion: Your rankings of 1 and 2 are correct, but the gap between them and the 3rd team is very large, and you should include Crawford on the depth chart for Boston, which is the factor that I think actually makes them the easy #1.

    Comment by Randy — March 7, 2012 @ 2:10 pm

  3. we got some extra U’s creeping into names up there – bourbon, coughlan – that’s what happens when you drink too much bourbon too fast, i guess, you cough

    Comment by wily mo — March 7, 2012 @ 2:11 pm

  4. Leonys Martin for Texas?

    Comment by Mario Mendoza of commenters — March 7, 2012 @ 2:17 pm

  5. Matt Joyce putting up 1 WAR in 50 PA’s seems…optimistic. Obviously anything can happen in 50 PA’s, but I have my doubts that he’s a ~13 WAR player.

    Comment by marcello — March 7, 2012 @ 2:22 pm

  6. I’m confused by Rasmus ranking.
    1) Rasmus doesn’t have a fielding number listed. Does this change the projection at all?
    2) You mention that his ZIPS projection is to return to career levels, but his career WAR is more like 2.6 /season, including last year’s disaster

    I’ll take the over, and I’m not particularly a fan.

    Comment by lexomatic — March 7, 2012 @ 2:32 pm

  7. “Brent” Gardner? C’mon man.

    Comment by wont let me post without a name — March 7, 2012 @ 2:33 pm

  8. To this point I would add that I don’t see Sam Fuld as a 6.5 WAR player.

    Comment by Walter — March 7, 2012 @ 2:43 pm

  9. There is something seriously wrong if Jordan Schafer is rated as having -2 defense in CF. He is truly one of the best defensive CFs in baseball. He has unbelievable range, a cannon for an arm, makes great reads and gets great jumps. I think Schafer will surprise a few people this season. If he can just stay healthy I think he could make the Astros forget Michael Bourn.

    Comment by JT — March 7, 2012 @ 2:47 pm

  10. Minor detail to the overall picture (big detail to Franklin Guitierrez),
    It’s a Pectoral Injury, not a Lat injury.

    Comment by Nate — March 7, 2012 @ 2:47 pm

  11. I have a tough time seeing how McCutchen falls behind Victorino while beating him by 20 points in OBP and slightly ahead in SLG and defense. (Presley seems better than Mayberry, too, and McLouth at least has the OBP edge).

    Comment by jrogers — March 7, 2012 @ 2:48 pm

  12. Surprised at the Angels being that low. Guess I would take Bourjos over Upton. Trout seems like a better option than Fuld.

    Comment by BJ — March 7, 2012 @ 2:51 pm

  13. Shouldn’t the fielding numbers add up to zero at each position? Are they versus average (which is what I thought fielding is usually pegged to) or replacement level? Or maybe the fielding numbers shown are for a full season and they need to be pro-rated for playing time. The CF’s have a net +169 in fielding — it looks like you should subtract 5 or 6 from the CF fielding ratings for each team to properly normalize them.

    This was a lesser problem for the power rankings at other positions (C was +51, 2B +38, and SS +47). Only the 1B and 3B fielding ratings seemed to average about zero (totals -10 and -2, respectively, which is close enough given the roughness of the numbers).

    Comment by Kerry W — March 7, 2012 @ 2:51 pm

  14. ok good fixed in the tables – they’re both still wrong in the writeup paragraphs, though, and it killed the player page links

    EDITOR STRIKES

    this business will get out of control, it will get out of control and we’ll be lucky to live through it (plane crash smoldering in background)

    Comment by wily mo — March 7, 2012 @ 2:53 pm

  15. I’m also confused by the Toronto backup CF’s and writeup. Snider played some CF last year out of absolute necessity (Davis was hurt) but I doubt he gets any AB’s in CF this year. If he doesn’t win the LF job, he’s likely in AAA. Also, his fielding in LF tends to be under-rated IMO, but I don’t think even the most biased observer would claim him to be an above-average CF.

    I think a more realistic player to list in the 3rd spot is Anthony Gose but he’s only likely to get a Sept call up.

    Comment by Garold — March 7, 2012 @ 2:55 pm

  16. My guess is Kemp regresses much for than ZIPS has him pegged. If I remember right, Pecota isn’t too sweet on him.

    Comment by Max — March 7, 2012 @ 2:56 pm

  17. Ron Washington said yesterday that Martin likely will spend the year in AAA.

    Comment by Wendy Thurm — March 7, 2012 @ 2:57 pm

  18. Several Blue Jays depth charts (the official one and ones put out by analysts) show Snider and Davis as backups in CF.

    Comment by Wendy Thurm — March 7, 2012 @ 3:00 pm

  19. Thanks and fixed. Yes, mistakes happen in a 3,500 word story.

    Comment by Wendy Thurm — March 7, 2012 @ 3:00 pm

  20. Fixed. Thanks.

    Comment by Wendy Thurm — March 7, 2012 @ 3:01 pm

  21. This isn’t a depth chart, or a list of people who can play CF. This is a projection of who will actually play CF for each team, and how much production they will get out of each of those individuals.

    I think Carl Crawford would make a great CFer, but I highly doubt he sees any time there in Boston this year. Even if Ellsbury gets injured for an extended period of time, they’d use Ross/Sweeney/McDonald/Kalish/Lin rather than Crawford. Not sure if the same is true of NY and Gardner.

    Comment by Yirmiyahu — March 7, 2012 @ 3:04 pm

  22. Did Rasmus’ stock drop that much? Only 2 teams with worse CF rotation than the Jays?

    Comment by VJO — March 7, 2012 @ 3:11 pm

  23. But why is Ellsbury being projected for +10 runs of defense in CF?

    For his career (3419.1 innings of data), his cumulative CF defense is +4 according to TZ, -1 according to DRS, +4.3 according to TZL, and +6.2 according to UZR. Averaging the different systems together, you get about +3 runs, or about +1 run per full season.

    Comment by Yirmiyahu — March 7, 2012 @ 3:18 pm

  24. Ah, crap. I was looking at his UZR/150. But even accounting for the mistake, he still looks like +2 runs/season.

    Comment by Yirmiyahu — March 7, 2012 @ 3:22 pm

  25. For those asking about the Fielding number — as explained in Dave Cameron’s initial post, the Fielding number comes from the FAN projections on each player’s page.

    As for the WAR number, it’s an estimate based on the ZIPS and FAN projections. It’s not exact, of course. Just a best estimate based on the information we have.

    Comment by Wendy Thurm — March 7, 2012 @ 3:23 pm

  26. i had the same thought

    Comment by Pat G — March 7, 2012 @ 3:24 pm

  27. 0.335 wOBA, 0 UZR, and 500 PA = 2.7 WAR…

    Comment by Peter — March 7, 2012 @ 3:29 pm

  28. You’re right, I think young Jordan is the tops. And I am in no way biased.

    Comment by Jordan Schafer's mom — March 7, 2012 @ 3:32 pm

  29. The fielding numbers should be prorated…seeing reserves and prospects as +/- 6-10 in 100 PA’s is ridiculous.

    Comment by Al — March 7, 2012 @ 3:44 pm

  30. Well this ranking is going to look ridiculous come September.

    Jays 28th?

    Comment by Natedawg — March 7, 2012 @ 3:49 pm

  31. Nats are 26th, your kind!

    Comment by kick me in the GO NATS — March 7, 2012 @ 3:49 pm

  32. ” Lorenzo Cain has a good glove, he doesn’t bring much value at the plate.”

    Many experts say the exact opposite, in respect to both.

    Comment by John — March 7, 2012 @ 3:51 pm

  33. Surely he must be considered “depth.”

    If he was up for several weeks LAST year, there’s no reason they wouldn’t call on him if needed this year. They haven’t added any new candidates since then. Ron Washington is just posturing.

    Comment by Mario Mendoza of commenters — March 7, 2012 @ 3:51 pm

  34. I am very confused why Cutch is rated behind Upton.

    Comment by Marver — March 7, 2012 @ 3:57 pm

  35. Tony Campana* for the Chicago Cubs

    Comment by Matt Z — March 7, 2012 @ 4:02 pm

  36. Agreed. I think Tampa should drop 2 spots personally but I am a BoSox fan.

    I would take Bourjos or McCutchen over Upton anyday.

    Comment by drabidea — March 7, 2012 @ 4:02 pm

  37. Well, Cameron said initially that, for the purposes of this project, there’s not much difference between a 3.0 WAR and 3.5 WAR.

    So, given that, I assume we can safely treat Matt Joyce as a 1.5 WAR player in 50 PA’s. So, he’s not actually a 13 WAR player. Rather, he is a 19.5 WAR player.

    Comment by RationalSportsFan — March 7, 2012 @ 4:02 pm

  38. What are the chances that the Rockies and Brewers would be center field equals!

    Comment by thomas — March 7, 2012 @ 4:10 pm

  39. i love the hunt for red october as well

    Comment by 20389438 — March 7, 2012 @ 4:12 pm

  40. if Cespedes is a 3 win player in Oak this year, I’ll eat my hat.

    Comment by d_i — March 7, 2012 @ 4:12 pm

  41. Gerardo Parra, as studly as his LF defense is, is simply not the defender Chris Young is for the DBacks in CF. He is definitely gonna get a lot of playing time in CF, mostly against tough righties that can give Young fits, but it’s hard to see him saving more runs in the field than Young does.

    Comment by Dreamin — March 7, 2012 @ 4:13 pm

  42. Your spot for the Jays is crazy. Rasmus, Davis, Gose/Marisnick is a better group at centre than a majority of the teams listed. If Mike Trout lifts the Angels to near the top of the list, then surely a Toronto squad with a slightly worse prospect in Gose and a far superior starter in Rasmus should be ranked in the same neighbourhood, at least.

    Comment by Big Jgke — March 7, 2012 @ 4:27 pm

  43. Well, Rasmus isn’t very good and the guys behind him aren’t really center fielders. What did you expect?

    Comment by stan — March 7, 2012 @ 4:30 pm

  44. Fangraph’s idea of crowd-sourcing their editing doesn’t seem to be working as well as it did with the broadcaster ratings.

    Comment by ngrimson — March 7, 2012 @ 4:30 pm

  45. Rajai Davis was signed specifically to be the back-up/ platoon guy there. He’s not a bad option at all as backups go.

    Comment by stan — March 7, 2012 @ 4:31 pm

  46. Here’s what I don’t get …

    Starter Jon Jay L 550 .282 .335 .402 2.5

    Starter Alejandro De Aza L 500 .271 .308 .406 7 3.5

    How is this WAR% figured?

    Jay has better offensive numbers and over more PA. De Aza has 0.7 more defensive value, but shouldn’t these guys be roughly equal, with Jay being ahead due to his data sample being 3-4 X’s the amount of De Aza’s?

    Also, 25 CF project to be league average or better? That doesn’t make sense to me, but am willing to admit that I might be missing something or not understanding the process.

    Comment by CircleChange11 — March 7, 2012 @ 4:32 pm

  47. I had to rub my eyes twice and recheck when I saw the White Sox ranking. You’re projecting a career journeyman with 61 career starts that well? De Aza’s really unlikely to hit or field that well over an entire season and that would be true even if he wasn’t entering his fifth year. I just can’t believe the Sox aren’t in the bottom five with that crew.

    Comment by stan — March 7, 2012 @ 4:33 pm

  48. There’s also no chance Joyce will play CF over Desmond Jennings.

    Comment by Josh — March 7, 2012 @ 4:40 pm

  49. Wendy, thanks for the clarification, I should have read the intro (my bad).

    But the fielding numbers aren’t self-consistent, and in some cases (CF especially) the fielding values need to be adjusted. If you believe the relative values are OK (I know, big if), a simple subtraction fielding points from each team would work (5 or 6 for CF).

    Comment by Kerry W — March 7, 2012 @ 4:40 pm

  50. that should be “a simple subtraction OF fielding points”…

    Comment by Kerry W — March 7, 2012 @ 4:46 pm

  51. Well given that Bourjos, in his first full season, equaled Rasmus best WAR year, calling Rasmus “a far superior starter” might be a bit of hyperbole. But you’re an irrational Jays fan (I can tell by the way you spelled center).

    Comment by Dan — March 7, 2012 @ 5:04 pm

  52. Can we really take the projections of a LF and say they’re going to field the same in CF? Namely how the hell is John Mayberry jr and matt joyce plus 2 in defense? I don’t think they’ve ever played a CF inning in their career but suddenly they’re better than Matt Kemp, Dexter Fowler etc? Cargo isnt better at CF than Fowler…. Sigh

    Comment by Jim Lahey — March 7, 2012 @ 5:11 pm

  53. I still don’t understand why anybody is judging Rasmus based on his play time in Toronto. He was injured and missed several weeks and then comes back without any rehab games and people are surprised he struggled when he returned (283 OPS after return from the D/L).

    Before he was traded he had a 110 wRC+. If he’s even a league average defender with that production he’s a 2.5-3 WAR player.

    Comment by Mark — March 7, 2012 @ 5:11 pm

  54. And since there wouldn’t be much difference between 1.5 WAR and 2 WAR, we should treat Joyce as a 2 WAR player… but then there probably isn’t much difference between a 2 WAR player and a 2.5 WAR player…

    Comment by Marshall — March 7, 2012 @ 5:15 pm

  55. Common sense when adjusting playing time would go some way. If your going to limit Davis to 100PA that means he’ll be coming in against LHP as a backup. Davis had a .360 wOBA vs LHP last year, and has been solid his whole career vs lefties, and thus would provide more WAR in a role he’s suited to rather than the everyday role he had to carry last year.

    You throw in any consideration that Snider will get 100PA in CF and you get a prediction that is laughable at best.

    Comment by TtD — March 7, 2012 @ 5:24 pm

  56. Shouldn’t Brett Jackson be mentioned?

    Comment by Jeremy — March 7, 2012 @ 5:46 pm

  57. I’m thinking there must be a mistake with the way Rasmus’ numbers were crunched. .250/.322/.454 line at 500PAs gives him a 1.5WAR, where Cain’s .259/.314/.370 at the same PAs gives him a 2.5WAR. Is his +5 fielding worth +1 win?

    Comment by Dwight — March 7, 2012 @ 6:06 pm

  58. Wendy — a lot of very valid comments made. perhaps a “do-over” is in order.

    Comment by count123 — March 7, 2012 @ 6:26 pm

  59. I don’t see how DeAza puts up 3.5 WAR. I think last year was a fluke. In more service time over parts of three years he posted -0.2 WAR prior to last year’s 2.8 in about 170 PA.

    Also, Lillibridge is being listed at every position. Yesterday I thought he was going to be credited with 0.5 WAR at each one leading to an equally silly 3 – 4 WAR season. These guys just are not all that good.

    Comment by MikeS — March 7, 2012 @ 6:39 pm

  60. The most interesting part of this analysis is the real lack of great centerfielders
    these days.

    Comment by Hurtlockertwo — March 7, 2012 @ 6:51 pm

  61. Don’t totally ignore Che-Hsuan Lin, he can’t hit a lick but he apparently plays GOAT type defense (including a rocket arm).

    Comment by Andrew — March 7, 2012 @ 7:02 pm

  62. There are a lot of good comments. Mostly about the Blue Jays and Astros (too low) and White Sox (too high). Fair enough.

    I reviewed multiple depth charts for each team. Folks may want to see a particular player at a particular position, but I did the ranking based on the information available: team depth charts, ESPN depth charts, mlbdepthcharts.com, and reviews of stories and blogs on each team. Am I wrong about some? I’m sure of that.

    That’s why these exercises are fun. But they are based on projections, together with judgment and analysis, and based on the information available. I don’t think a re-do is necessary. We can come back to his mid-season and end of season and see how close (or far) I was from what actually happened on the field.

    Comment by Wendy Thurm — March 7, 2012 @ 7:08 pm

  63. Adam Jones/Orioles seem too low. You’d really take the total wild card (Cespedes) or the head case (Nyjer Morgan) over Jones? Byrd and Fowler seem worse, too. I’d have him in the 9-12 range mixed in with Maybin, Span, and Young.

    Oh and what happened to #11?

    Comment by Os Fan — March 7, 2012 @ 7:09 pm

  64. It’s hopefully academic, as hopefully Guti comes back healthy and without missing a beat in late April or so. But I think you have Wells and Saunders flipped.

    Even though I personally would rather see a lot more of Wells and have had my fill of SAAAAunders, the buzz out of camp is that Saunders went through a lot of work in the offseason to retool his swing, and even though his hitting has been abysmal, he is legitimately better on defense than Wells, in center.

    Unless Wedge gets his hate on for him in spring training for some reason, I’d expect Saunders to get most of the CF time and Wells (righty) to platoon with Carp (lefty) in LF. I.e. poor Casper is still stuck as a 4th outfielder until or unless he breaks out at the next opportunity.

    Comment by Snowblind — March 7, 2012 @ 7:18 pm

  65. Wendy, I think the griping on here just reflects that there’s a bunch of fangraphs readers who don’t get what a projection is and how to use it, so they pounce on anything that doesn’t fit with their gut feel.

    I don’t think you need a re-do at all, I think there just needs to be a Fangraphs article by one of the senior writers to drill it into people’s heads that no projection system – none – is really accurate or scientific at all, and that this is just an amusing exercise to quantify everyone’s gut feel (as well as pass the time until the season hurries up and freakin’ starts already…).

    Comment by Snowblind — March 7, 2012 @ 7:21 pm

  66. Apparently it moved to #13. Just like #27 moved to #26.

    Comment by ben — March 7, 2012 @ 7:26 pm

  67. When you have 25 center fielders producing as much WAR (unadjusted for PA) as an average MLB starter (2+ WAR), maybe the positional or fielding adjustments should be, well, adjusted.

    Comment by Steve — March 7, 2012 @ 7:37 pm

  68. What team is #11?

    Comment by Simon — March 7, 2012 @ 7:47 pm

  69. “batting just .173/.201/.316 in 140 plate appearances for the Blue Jays”

    Are you sure you didn’t mean to write “batting .173/.201/.316 in just 140 plate appearances for the Blue Jays”?

    Comment by Dan M. — March 7, 2012 @ 7:48 pm

  70. Padres.

    Numbering fixed.

    Comment by Wendy Thurm — March 7, 2012 @ 7:49 pm

  71. I believe they are derived from fan projections and not a formal projection model. Also, since the aim appears to determine ordinal rank at a given position, subtracting the same amount from each team would not change the results.

    Comment by CardinalRules — March 7, 2012 @ 7:59 pm

  72. I’m curious about your Stubbs prediction. He’s had a 4.0 WAR year and a 2.6 WAR year. Given the he’s entering his prime years, 2.5 seems awfully conservative. Not that I expect him to be all-world or anything, but I’d have gone a bit higher there.

    Comment by Jason461 — March 7, 2012 @ 8:27 pm

  73. Perhaps a better methodology would be what Tango does with his back of the envelope calls where he figures up batting runs, fielding runs, base running and positional and then multiplies by the expected number of PA.

    For example if a player is expected to get 80% of the PT, he gets 80% of the WAR.

    It seems like it could go in a spreadsheet formula nicely as batters are calculated the same with the differences being in positional & defense.

    Bat + Field + Position x %PT = projected WAR.

    The %’s for each position would add to 100%. Then we’d have a projected WAR by position for each team.

    Just discussing, not criticizing.

    Comment by CircleChange11 — March 7, 2012 @ 9:04 pm

  74. Maybe for consideration of all the people involved in this then that the MLB charts especially don’t include prospects as depth until they have reached the big leagues, which will affect your start point. It’s not going to change the starters much, but when assigning playing time for the backups/injury stand-ins, their depthcharts are likely to be pretty inaccurate.

    Comment by TtD — March 7, 2012 @ 9:18 pm

  75. “Rasmus isn’t very good”

    The man was an elite prospect and had a .366 wOBA as recently as 2010…how quickly we forget

    Comment by YanksFanInBeantown — March 7, 2012 @ 9:20 pm

  76. I’m not a Jays fan at all and Rasmus is ranked far too low. A 24 year old former elite prospect one year removed from an excellent season is not the 3rd worst CF in baseball.

    Comment by YanksFanInBeantown — March 7, 2012 @ 10:24 pm

  77. How can almost every CF including backups and emergency shoe horns all be on pace to produce 3+ WAR over the course of 600 PAs?

    I know this is supposed to be more of a fun exercise than a science but something is screwy. Apparently Jordan Shaefer is the only replacement level CF in baseball.

    Are the fans really modest on their defense ratings for every other position but all overly optimistic for their CF?

    Comment by Franco — March 7, 2012 @ 11:52 pm

  78. Most teams put their best outfielder in center. Outfielders move from position to position often enough that the positional adjustments are probably pretty good.

    I suspect most replacement level outfielders play right field or get moved to first base, there may be some bad hitters playing center because they’re defense makes up for it, but there probably isn’t a single bad defender at major league shortstop, what team doesn’t have even ONE good defensive outfielder?

    Comment by Doug Lampert — March 8, 2012 @ 12:47 am

  79. Why? Kemp’s projections are basically identical to his career averages, and he’s right in the middle of his prime, and the main thing dragging down his career averages is his 2010, which represents a larger outlier from his career numbers than 2011 does. Also, having followed him over that time, it’s likely his poor performance was due in large part to mental issues. This year his attitude is much more similar to how it was going into 2011 than it was going into 2010. I see no reason to take the “under” on Matt Kemp reaching his career averages.

    Comment by Bip — March 8, 2012 @ 1:03 am

  80. Yep, this has to be an arithmetical error. The fans are projecting the exact same wOBA as ZIPS, resulting in 3.3 WAR. Please fix this.

    Comment by gabriel — March 8, 2012 @ 1:31 am

  81. Part of the defensive rating problem is that some of the backup CF are rated for their primary position, most commonly LF; naturally, those are higher nominal fielding marks than if they had been evaluated for CF. The other part is the typical optimism of fan ratings.

    Comment by gabriel — March 8, 2012 @ 1:50 am

  82. I hope you’re wearing one of those nacho sombreros with cheese in the middle like Homer got at the football game he went to with Flanders.

    Comment by Dexter Bobo — March 8, 2012 @ 1:57 am

  83. Would like to note that Tony Gwynn Jr. got all of 19 PA as a CF last year (to Kemp’s 679). Projections are nice, but maybe a version without backups (or 3rd stringers) would be better. Platoons and semi regulars would be the exceptions.

    Comment by DeliBlue — March 8, 2012 @ 2:12 am

  84. Good to see Michael Bourn ranked so highly. I think he’s got a chance to put up a 5 WAR season; he’s come close before. Last year, he surprisingly underperformed defensively in his time with Houston(-12.1/150 UZR) after putting up 3 straight positive d numbers in Houston at ~+12/150. Then he goes to Atlanta and underperforms offensively for about a third of a season, putting up a 91 wRC+. Despite both of these, he still posted 4.2 WAR last year, and he proved his defense may just score fine in Atlanta as he put up a +7.3 UZR/150 in his third of a year there. If he can put it all together, he just might end up leading the Braves in WAR this year.

    Comment by bstar — March 8, 2012 @ 7:00 am

  85. You mean correctly?

    Comment by Tepps — March 8, 2012 @ 7:42 am

  86. Well teams really shouldn’t be starting a replacement level player. Those should be bench players. With actual results it happens every year (or below replacement), but that’s rarely the plan.

    Comment by todmod — March 8, 2012 @ 10:58 am

  87. yeah, 28th is pretty low for a team that has one of the youngest and most talented CFs in baseball, who also happened to be the very best offensive CF in baseball just the year before last, at age 23.

    That’s likely not going to look like a good call when all is aid and done.

    Comment by everdiso — March 8, 2012 @ 11:18 am

  88. after reviewing the list again, i think it’s pretty clear that the FANS fielding numbers are for all intents and purposes useless.

    Comment by everdiso — March 8, 2012 @ 11:26 am

  89. The weighted average for MLB players is about 2 WAR; the average starter is probably more like 3.
    Wendy (and Dave before her) explained where the projections come from. The writer’s job is not to substitute her own judgement for every players ZiPS and Fans projection.
    If Fans projections are too high (Imagine that! Overoptimistic fans!), it doesn’t really matter at all.
    This exercise is for a ranking of teams for all of us to take pot shots at, not to get an accurate WAR projection for every team, position and player.
    I find the series, and this article, very informative and entertaining.

    Comment by Baltar — March 8, 2012 @ 12:32 pm

  90. Read the introduction to the series before you make a stupid comment like this.

    Comment by Baltar — March 8, 2012 @ 12:34 pm

  91. I give you credit for not blaming Wendy for this, unlike most of the ignorant commenters above.

    Comment by Baltar — March 8, 2012 @ 12:40 pm

  92. Since the “crowd” chose Vin Scully #1, I don’t think any method could be worse.

    Comment by Baltar — March 8, 2012 @ 1:26 pm

  93. So tell the Fans. It’s their rating, not Wendy’s. Read the introduction.

    Comment by Baltar — March 8, 2012 @ 1:28 pm

  94. Also neighborhood.

    Comment by Baltar — March 8, 2012 @ 1:33 pm

  95. Wendy’s not projecting De Aza at all. She’s just taking other projections and adding it together to see where teams rank.

    Comment by Baltar — March 8, 2012 @ 1:36 pm

  96. How would that change the rankings?

    Comment by Baltar — March 8, 2012 @ 1:37 pm

  97. Well, you can’t, of course. Feel free to develop an algorithm for converting LF numbers to CF and re-calculate every players WAR. That would improve precision while hardly changing accuracy at all, let alone these rankings.

    Comment by Baltar — March 8, 2012 @ 1:48 pm

  98. I wish I could give you -2. This is a silly nitpick, and it is also incorrect.

    Comment by Baltar — March 8, 2012 @ 1:54 pm

  99. I get that we’re really splitting hairs here, especially in the middle third…and that this site is all about numbers, but some of these really stand out as bold calls. Maybin and Austin Jackson are projected for strikingly similar seasons and equivalent playing time, but end up 10 spots different.

    Of course, maybe that’s just the Tigers fan in me being sensitive about our ONLY plus defender.

    Comment by mtucache — March 8, 2012 @ 2:31 pm

  100. Yes.

    Comment by Jon L. — March 8, 2012 @ 3:25 pm

  101. I imagine it’s an artifact of the nature of playing center (along with the fact that typically good fielders play center). Good play behind the plate is subtle, errors and misplays are really obvious in the infield, but meanwhile even lousy centerfielders glide around looking smooth and athletic.

    Comment by Jon L. — March 8, 2012 @ 3:36 pm

  102. Okay, here’s my unique complaint about this entire series:

    It’s too much material to roll out in just a few days. With articles like these, Fangraphs should roll out one per day. This is especially true on a site in which new articles are heavily read and commented, and articles a few days old are hard to run into unless you’re really looking for them.

    Or is Fangraphs going to produce this much material every day? In which case those of us who find it interesting should just quit our day jobs…

    Comment by Jon L. — March 8, 2012 @ 3:49 pm

  103. Good points, and I agree. These studies were well-done, sparked debate, but were gone the next day as 10 new articles went up on the board.

    One way to change this would be to include ACTUAL popular stories(most commented) on the Popular Stories board. I dont know what Fangraphs thinks popular means, but to me I’ve tired of looking at “A New Old Idea for the Kansas City Royals” and its 25-odd comments for the last month. What is that thing still doing on there? Why not put the recent stories that have generated the most debate in this box?

    Comment by bstar — March 8, 2012 @ 11:49 pm

  104. Let’s compare using the numbers here:

    #13 Dexter Fowler
    .264/.360/.418/.778/ -2 = 3 WAR
    #14 Yoenis Cespedes
    .270/.331/.435/.766/ xx = 3 WAR
    #16 Adam Jones
    .278/.322/.447/.769 / -5 = 3 WAR
    #21 John Jay – 550 PA
    .282/.335/.402/.737/ xx = 2.5 WAR
    #24 Emilio Bonifacio – 600 PA
    .263/.326/.347/.673/ -2 = 3 WAR

    #28 Colby Rasmus – 500 PA
    .250/.322/.454/.776/ xx = 1.5 WAR

    Note particularly the comparison with Jones – something is most certainly amiss.

    Comment by TammyBeth — March 9, 2012 @ 1:31 am

  105. Rats. Forgot to include PA for all. since I can’t delete that one I’ll have to repeat:

    Let’s compare using the numbers here:

    #13 Dexter Fowler – 550 PA
    .264/.360/.418/.778/ -2 = 3 WAR

    #14 Yoenis Cespedes – 400 PA
    .270/.331/.435/.766/ xx = 3 WAR

    #16 Adam Jones – 600 PA
    .278/.322/.447/.769 / -5 = 3 WAR

    #21 John Jay – 550 PA
    .282/.335/.402/.737/ xx = 2.5 WAR

    #24 Emilio Bonifacio – 600 PA
    .263/.326/.347/.673/ -2 = 3 WAR

    #28 Colby Rasmus – 500 PA
    .250/.322/.454/.776/ xx = 1.5 WAR

    Note particularly the comparison with Jones – something is most certainly amiss.

    Comment by TammyBeth — March 9, 2012 @ 1:34 am

  106. He isn’t. In fact, he is rated higher than Upton (5-4 WAR). The higher ranking for the Rays is based on the view that the backup CFs for the Rays are better than those for Pittsburgh.

    Comment by Bob R. — March 9, 2012 @ 10:02 am

  107. John Mayberry Jr played 246.2 innings of above average defense in CF in 2011.

    Comment by Phrozen — March 12, 2012 @ 5:36 pm

  108. I hope he’s wearing a regular baseball hat, that would be much more entertaining.

    Comment by Anthony — March 13, 2012 @ 12:56 pm

  109. Worth noting, too – Depending on how the Pirates are competing, Starling Marte could start seeing a few at bats come late July, which might push Cutch either to RF or LF.

    Comment by Andy — May 4, 2012 @ 11:50 am

  110. Marlon Byrd is a good centerfielder? haha funniest fangraphs sentence yet.

    Comment by Steve — August 31, 2012 @ 3:16 pm

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