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  1. To be fair a tee can make hitters on the Padres swing and miss.

    Comment by Drakos — March 7, 2012 @ 4:40 pm

  2. Damn you, Rogers!

    Comment by Adrock — March 7, 2012 @ 4:40 pm

  3. So when does Yu Darvish get his own FanGraphs profile page?

    Comment by nickkappel — March 7, 2012 @ 4:49 pm

  4. I don’t like his wrist action.

    We’ll see how the elbow holds up.

    Comment by John — March 7, 2012 @ 4:57 pm

  5. That last pitch was filthy. Looks like my $4 in ottoneu last year could have been invested wisely

    Comment by Kyle — March 7, 2012 @ 5:18 pm

  6. You know who else pitched 2 innings of shutout ball and struck out 3 in his first spring training start…Dice-K. Just saying.

    http://boston.redsox.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070302&content_id=1824291&vkey=spt2007news&fext=.jsp&c_id=bos

    Comment by brad — March 7, 2012 @ 5:19 pm

  7. You’re pretty much the only person I’ve seen that thinks there’s anything questionable about his delivery.

    Comment by MonkeyEpoxy — March 7, 2012 @ 5:19 pm

  8. Yours isn’t great either, if you know what I mean. Wanking on the internet about someone’s mechanics isn’t very helpful.

    Comment by Oliver — March 7, 2012 @ 5:20 pm

  9. Kind of a rosy review here. If I hadn’t seen the video, I’d have a very different impression of how things went down. The “infield grounder/liner” was a line drive scorched off a letter-high fastball and the “soft flyball to center” wasn’t soft at all; it was hit on a line off a hanging breaking ball on outer half.

    There were some nice pitches mixed in as well, but I didn’t see anything that increases the odds of them having something special on their hands. Yes, they might (and personally I think they probably do), but not because of anything seen in this performance.

    Comment by NS — March 7, 2012 @ 5:21 pm

  10. It’s been good for 1000 innings so far.

    Comment by RationalSportsFan — March 7, 2012 @ 5:27 pm

  11. Yeah, what is he doing that makes his wrist action look so weird on those breaking pitches?

    Comment by JDanger — March 7, 2012 @ 5:27 pm

  12. You mean the Dice-K who put up 7.2 fWAR and 8.3 bWAR in his first two years before getting injured?

    Comment by RationalSportsFan — March 7, 2012 @ 5:29 pm

  13. +++++++++++++1

    That splitter made me hiccup.

    Comment by Bip — March 7, 2012 @ 5:36 pm

  14. Yeah, I don’t know if you can conclude much from 2 innings on March 7th… but him doing relatively well and missing a lot of bats is comforting.

    Comment by MonkeyEpoxy — March 7, 2012 @ 5:38 pm

  15. I don’t put too much stock into how hard the other team hit the ball. He looked like he had pretty good command of a wide variety of off-speed stuff and so-so fastball command. Overall that looks good to me.

    Comment by Bip — March 7, 2012 @ 5:39 pm

  16. Rangers sure do develop their prospects well…

    Comment by Aggie E — March 7, 2012 @ 5:51 pm

  17. If Darvish in his first MLB season looks like Dice-K in his first MLB season, I will be PO’d that the Red Sox didn’t go after Darvish. Just saying.

    Comment by mcbrown — March 7, 2012 @ 5:52 pm

  18. So the other three years don’t count and we should simply disregard the years when players don’t perform well or are hurt. He posted 3.4 fWAR in the last three years. Are those two years out of five a cause for success and worth the $100 million Boston spent?

    Comment by brad — March 7, 2012 @ 6:01 pm

  19. Looks like he has a good mix of pitches and should be able to keep the ball on the ground in Arlington.

    Comment by Shaun Catron — March 7, 2012 @ 6:03 pm

  20. And the four years after?

    Comment by brad — March 7, 2012 @ 6:03 pm

  21. No, those years count, but we can’t just randomly predict future injuries based off past injuries of other players.

    Dice-K was very good until injuries ruined him.

    Darvish is going to be very good. Hopefully injuries don’t ruin him. We have no specific reason to think they will.

    Connecting the two players as you are is just silly.

    Comment by RationalSportsFan — March 7, 2012 @ 6:07 pm

  22. You guys still have Duisake i think. Why is he not in the mix to pitch in boston?

    Comment by Aggie E — March 7, 2012 @ 6:07 pm

  23. I think the video distorts things the other way. We have a difference of opinion about the hit that Young let by, the thing to center was an easy catch, and Venable hit the ball on the screws. And then ten times people missed the ball completely.

    Comment by Eno Sarris — March 7, 2012 @ 6:07 pm

  24. Darvish also looked fluid and athletic fielding his position. Covered first nicely then did well to field a high chopper, made a good throw home, and made his way to home plate in case of an extended rundown.

    Comment by Jordan — March 7, 2012 @ 6:08 pm

  25. also, I don’t knw if the ideo showed it, but he has a soft curve that has crazy movement. Fun to watch

    Comment by Kyle — March 7, 2012 @ 6:08 pm

  26. “but it’s a fantastic first start, and it at least suggests that he can make Major League hitters swing and miss.

    The Rangers might have something pretty special on their hands. ”

    Daisuke Matsuzaka, in his first major league start (you know, an actual real game), struck out 10 and walked 1, allowing 1 earned run.

    Darvish might be Sandy Koufax for all I know, but can we please stop with the “I know it’s a meaningless sample but hey I need to write about something so let’s ignore that for a moment” thing that smart people can’t stop themselves from doing.

    Comment by Andrew — March 7, 2012 @ 6:55 pm

  27. In case it wasn’t clear my point was that Matsuzaka obviously wound up being a pretty big disappointment (and everyone assumes Darvish will be better, and of course they all insist it’s not hindsight in the least)

    Comment by Andrew — March 7, 2012 @ 6:57 pm

  28. Swinging strikes and velocity stabilize much much quicker than strikeouts and per-at-bat results. So, yes, you can actually say something about him — he can hit 95 (Daisuke didn’t), and he can get a ton of whiffs (Daisuke did, but had problems with the health).

    Comment by Eno Sarris — March 7, 2012 @ 6:58 pm

  29. All credit to Nolan Ryan.

    Comment by The Media — March 7, 2012 @ 7:08 pm

  30. Like someone else said, Dice-K was actually really good until injuries. He lived up to the hype for two years. I think that your analysis is simply a pre-chosen bias (you cannot learn ANYTHING from any small sample size) and then you getting amped up when others might have point that goes against it.

    Thanks for playing, try again.

    Comment by Brad — March 7, 2012 @ 7:21 pm

  31. You do realize that Dice-K was pitching with an injury for a very long time, right? He probably should’ve had Tommy John a long time ago, the guy is notoriously stubborn. The investment didn’t pay out because of the injury, but Dice-K was a very good pitcher when healthy. Pitching is volatile, injuries happen. What does this have to do with Darvish again?

    Comment by EarlSweatshirt — March 7, 2012 @ 7:36 pm

  32. Darvish’s ERA in NPB was nearly a whole run lower than Dice-K’s. Hardly blind optimism.

    Comment by dustygator — March 7, 2012 @ 7:43 pm

  33. I’d say Josh Beckett has been very good, not so much dice k.

    Comment by Hm — March 7, 2012 @ 7:43 pm

  34. This article isn’t about his stats in an early spring training game, and their significance. It’s about the velocity and movement, which IS meaningful. Darvish has much better stuff than Dice-K.

    Comment by Riley — March 7, 2012 @ 7:45 pm

  35. Anyone who compares Darvish to Matsuzaka is a Communist!!!

    Comment by Richie — March 7, 2012 @ 7:47 pm

  36. Right, I don’t want to overstate things too far in the other direction. Nothing alarming here, just not as impressive as the writeup read to me.

    Good movement, but we already knew that about him. His command will be the determining factor. It was generally solid here, but I always find it funny when a pitcher makes a highlight out of a poor pitch. The first strikeout, for example, comes on a breaking ball that backed up over the outside corner, thigh-high. I think Darvish himself would tell you that wasn’t a good pitch. In fact it was the same pitch a few batters later that was lined to center. The pitch is supposed to be down and/or off the corner, as it is on his second strikeout at 0:54.

    Agree to disagree on the other part. In terms of measuring pitching performance, I tend to put more weight on how hard the ball is hit than whether or not it ends up fielded.

    Comment by NS — March 7, 2012 @ 7:49 pm

  37. Could be true about the video. I don’t think the fact that the ball to center was easy to catch tells you all that much about how hard it was hit, though. The trajectory and time from bat to glove suggest it was hit harder than what I picture as a “soft fly ball”. The play-by-play man also calls it a line to center.

    Just nitpicking here, obviously. But that is sort of what we do with a highlight reel from a 2 inning sample.

    Comment by NS — March 7, 2012 @ 7:55 pm

  38. FIP was, too.

    Comment by NS — March 7, 2012 @ 7:56 pm

  39. The arm goes behind the head a bit too much for me. I see a trip to Dr. James Andrews in his future.

    Comment by The Rajah — March 7, 2012 @ 7:59 pm

  40. One thing I can conclude is that people are very polarized over this guy. Seems like everyone is seeing what they want to.

    Comment by Young Whipper-Snapper — March 7, 2012 @ 8:47 pm

  41. Im a Red Sox fan and I watched those first two years of 7 or 8 WAR. It was agonizing. In 2008 in particular he must have set some type of record for most runners stranded at third and most times stranding the bases loaded. Don’t get me wrong it was effective but it made so anxious I was pulling my teeth out with plyers as to not focus on the incredible pain of his circus act.

    Comment by Shane — March 7, 2012 @ 8:51 pm

  42. Actually Darvish has similiar velocity to that of Daisuke when he came over. Daisuke also had plenty good stuff (movement, secondary pitches.) Darvish may have better control/command, we will just have to see.

    Comment by Shane — March 7, 2012 @ 8:55 pm

  43. I was watching him pitch on Gamecast, and his first 3 fastballs all hit the exact same spot. That told me all I needed to know about his command – at least, for his fastball. I forgot where he ended but at one point he was at 15 strikes/4 balls – his control was good which was always the question with him.

    He mixed pitches often and changed speeds really well, kind of reminded me of Felix. He also did a pretty good job hitting his spots in the corners.

    I noticed 2 flaws he had – 1. he used too many pitches for those outs, reminded me of Daisuke. He was nibbling corners all day and wracking up balls, preventing him from going deeper into the game. He’s not going to have very many 7+ IP games if he keeps pitching like this. 2. he left stuff over the middle, and it got crushed. He really can’t do that, I know every pitcher does it once in a while, but he needs to cut down on some of his mistakes.

    But his stuff is legit, and I was surprised how nasty his curve was. If he can adapt to the MLB game of pitching to contact, mistake-free, he has the stuff to be a Top 5 pitcher in the AL.

    Comment by Killua — March 7, 2012 @ 9:09 pm

  44. Oh and capitalism is working so very well lately.

    Comment by Shane — March 7, 2012 @ 9:11 pm

  45. Darvish also pitched in a lower offense period than did Daisuke.

    I can see reason to be optimistic about any pitcher throwing mid 90s with a few good breaking pitches and good control.

    Of course since he’s Japanese he has to follow Dice-K’s career path. Texas needs to win the WS in 12 or 13, because his decline due to injury is as Mike Tyson would say a “phoregone conklushun”.

    Comment by CircleChange11 — March 7, 2012 @ 9:13 pm

  46. So Darvish just needs to throw the ball in the exact perfect spots so that batters make weak contact all the time and he should be fine?

    Because that’s what the best pitchers do?

    If he racks up K’s while keeping walks low, he should be fine … just like the pitchers have been trying to do for over 100 years.

    Comment by CircleChange11 — March 7, 2012 @ 9:27 pm

  47. uh huh

    Comment by MonkeyEpoxy — March 7, 2012 @ 9:31 pm

  48. Would like to see how he holds up in the Texas heat. Koji Uehara had a hard time adjusting from japanese weather to american summers.

    Comment by Kyle — March 7, 2012 @ 9:47 pm

  49. It’s always so hard evaluating pitchers in spring training considering where they are at in their preparation for the season. Based strictly on today, I see Darvish as a number 2/3 starter in MLB with a small chance at being a true #1 starter. The people who think is ready to step in and be an instant Hall-Of-Famer are being wildly optimistic.

    Comment by Phantom Stranger — March 7, 2012 @ 10:03 pm

  50. I think Nolan has nothing to do with that, except paying the money and doing the PR work.

    Comment by Kampfer — March 7, 2012 @ 10:11 pm

  51. Thank you random, internet evaluator who makes proclamations based on a ST start in March vs. the Padres. If you would be so kind as to provide me with Apple’s stock price in 10 years based upon today’s trading activity, I will be forever in your debt.

    Comment by Guy Smiley — March 7, 2012 @ 10:21 pm

  52. I never understood why people always bring up Dice-K in any Darvish related article. We never say an American pitching prospect is likely to succeed/fail in the Majors because another American pitcher who was drafted by the same team and developed in the same minor league system did. Dice-K and Darvish are both Japanese (only by nationality too, as Darvish’s father is Iranian) and played in NPB. The similarities stop there. Dice-K and Darvish are two completely different pitchers. It’s about time people caught on.

    Comment by elijah82 — March 7, 2012 @ 10:56 pm

  53. Right. Every player’s dream: to be fine.

    “We gave up $100M to acquire Yu Darvish because we believe he can come into this league and be fine.”

    Comment by NS — March 7, 2012 @ 11:00 pm

  54. I believe that people DO do this with Americans. Set aside the nationality and focus on the league. We frequently look at guys who hit well and say, “Wait, you did it in the PCL? Oh. Ok. Less credit.” n

    People are trying to determine how pitching well in Japan translates to pitching in MLB. It makes sense that you’d look at other players who have made the same transition. No, you don’t pretend it’s absolutely predictive or anything, but you try to gleam what you can with the information you have.

    Comment by MrKnowNothing — March 7, 2012 @ 11:23 pm

  55. I was going farther off the defense independent spectrum actually, i.e. I’m not looking at any of the results of his pitches, just commenting on his velocity, how the pitches moved and where the ended up relative to the zone.

    Comment by Bip — March 8, 2012 @ 12:00 am

  56. Well, I didn’t see that one coming.

    Comment by Richie — March 8, 2012 @ 12:07 am

  57. That’s pretty normal. What makes it very polarized is that half of them are screaming bloody murder at whomever sees anything somewhat opposing what they see.

    Comment by Richie — March 8, 2012 @ 12:10 am

  58. Exactamundo. Many ‘+’s.

    Comment by Richie — March 8, 2012 @ 12:12 am

  59. Daisuke had Tommy John Surgery last June, he should be back sometime around the break

    Comment by EM — March 8, 2012 @ 12:16 am

  60. “the video distorts”??? As compared to what, seeing it live? Are you saying it was shot from a bad angle?

    Comment by Richie — March 8, 2012 @ 12:17 am

  61. I bet there’s more than just one pitcher ever who threw 2 shutout innings in their first 3 spring innings. Why not compare Darvish to those guys? The idea that they’re bound to do the same thing because they both came from Japan and are kinda-maybe a little similar is ridiculous AT BEST.

    Comment by KDL — March 8, 2012 @ 12:20 am

  62. If you promise to stop comparing all new Japanese league pitchers to only other Japanese league pitchers, I’ll jump on your ‘anti-meaningless sample’ bandwagon.

    Comment by KDL — March 8, 2012 @ 12:24 am

  63. Very nice splitter to get Baker, he will be fun to follow.

    Comment by EM — March 8, 2012 @ 12:27 am

  64. ‘What does this have to do with Darvish again?’

    Uh…just LOOK at him. And then look at Dice-K. Do you see why we’re talking about Dice-K?

    Seriously, though, can anyone name another pitcher you’ve seen Darvish compared to? It’s embarrassing that we and/or the media is so focused on this crap. Why do we only compare ballplayers to similar ethnic/national backgrounds? No white American is ever the ‘next Clemente’ or even the ‘next Rod Carew’ for that matter ; no Japanese fielder is anything but varying degrees less impressive than Ichiro; no Domincan pitcher has ever drawn Seaver, or Clemens, or even Bruce Chen comparisons. Why is that?
    I’d really love to know which players new guys are REALLY like. Most of the time I already know where they came from. I don’t need their player comparison to imply that information.

    Comment by KDL — March 8, 2012 @ 12:34 am

  65. Hey Darvish and Matsusaka are asian, lets compare them!

    Comment by TD — March 8, 2012 @ 12:46 am

  66. The video distorts because it shows one pitch per AB. I watched it live as well and it was more impressive. For instance, Venable killed that ball, but it was on a 2-2 pitch. He’d been embarrassed earlier in the AB. 4 of the 5 batters who made put the ball in play did so on two-strike counts.

    Comment by davisnc — March 8, 2012 @ 12:48 am

  67. I agree that it makes sense to draw SOME comparisons, because of the similar league. But it doesn’t make sense that you would only ever mention one player in comparison. For every ‘Darvish is like _____’ comparison there hundreds of ‘Darvish is like Dice-K’ ones.
    There may be a little more strength to this particular comparison..but how do explain the Dice-K = Nomo or Irabu stream of nonsense we were fed a few years ago. Besides the NPB connection, in what meaningful way were those guys connected?
    And it’s not just a Japanese league thing. How many black players have you heard Bryce Harper or Mike Trout compared to? (And how does that relate to your PCL theory?) Sportswriters are lazy when it comes to this sort of thing. It’s much easier to limit the comparison field to players that look like a new guy, and go from there. So that’s what they do.

    Comment by KDL — March 8, 2012 @ 12:53 am

  68. Lmao. We have Scout Nostradamus over there.

    Comment by Gabriel — March 8, 2012 @ 12:56 am

  69. Also, how’s come we’re not hearing all about how similar Darvish and Colby Lewis are?

    Comment by KDL — March 8, 2012 @ 12:57 am

  70. Damn that Heep-seop Choi for not being as good as Ichiro!

    Comment by Gabriel — March 8, 2012 @ 1:00 am

  71. Koji pitched really well in Baltimore, where it regularly exceeds 95 degrees in the summer.

    Comment by JMonkey — March 8, 2012 @ 1:05 am

  72. Speaking of Matsuzaka, Hideo Nomo is another guy who came over from Japan, was very good in his first 2 seasons, then gradually fell off. Did he have an injury or something? Between 1997 and 1998 he somewhat abruptly turned from Good Pitcher into Bad Pitcher.

    Comment by buddy — March 8, 2012 @ 1:21 am

  73. People dont compare Dice K and Darvish only because they are both asian. The players are compared because they both followed the same career path. Stop assuming that Race has everything to do with it. Race plays a part but only a part

    Comment by adohaj — March 8, 2012 @ 1:53 am

  74. As an SP, he’ll pitch 2, maybe 3 games in the bad heat.

    Comment by Tex Pantego — March 8, 2012 @ 2:01 am

  75. “”He’s not likely to have platoon issues.”

    Well, I don’t know if you can conclude that just based on his movement. It’s the tiniest of sample sizes. BUT…the left-handed hitters he faced fared much better than the righties did. Both hits were by lefties, and I thought the lefties he faced, while certainly not the best hitters of group, made the best contact against him by far. It may not be big problem for Darvish, in that he may be excellent against righties and only slightly less excellent against lefties, but I wouldn’t be so quick to suggest that he’ll be just as good against righties as he is lefties.

    Comment by The_NV — March 8, 2012 @ 3:16 am

  76. Yes he got hit on the elbow by a battd ball.

    Comment by jeff_bonds — March 8, 2012 @ 4:02 am

  77. But yes, since they are all Japanese, you can expect Darvish to get hit by a batted ball in his third year, which will render him ineffective for a few years.

    Comment by jeff_bonds — March 8, 2012 @ 4:04 am

  78. But that’s not what not having platoon issues means, though.

    Comment by jeff_bonds — March 8, 2012 @ 4:05 am

  79. For instance, Albert Pujols isn’t equally good against both right handed and left handed pitchers, but that doesn’t mean he has platoon issues.

    Comment by jeff_bonds — March 8, 2012 @ 4:08 am

  80. That’s why comparing Yu Darvish to Dice-K is permissible here. He is comparable due to the fact that he succeeded in the same league Yu Darvish did, then came over here in his mid-20s. Who else can you say that about? Aren’t they all Japanese also(except for Colby Lewis)?

    Comment by bstar — March 8, 2012 @ 7:10 am

  81. I’m positive Texas looked both at Lewis AND every other starting pitcher to come over from Japan. I’m sure they didn’t have a problem comparing these players’ performances, despite the fact that all were Japanese(except Lewis).

    Comment by bstar — March 8, 2012 @ 7:20 am

  82. And this is relevant because…?

    Comment by t ball — March 8, 2012 @ 8:37 am

  83. Nolan has NOTHING to do with what the Rangers accomplish. A figure head of the highest order.

    Comment by Jon Daniels — March 8, 2012 @ 9:42 am

  84. I agree with Shane on this. The look like very similar pitchers. Same pitching style, same velocity, same movement. Dice-K’s problems were always either injuries and/or control.

    It is still too early to tell on both of those with Darvish but I really hope he succeeds. Japanese baseball needs it.

    Comment by drabidea — March 8, 2012 @ 11:36 am

  85. And you know WHY they follow the same career path? Thats right, because they are both Asian and have no other choice.

    Comment by Keystone Heavy — March 8, 2012 @ 1:47 pm

  86. split squad padres, no less!

    Comment by hbar — March 8, 2012 @ 2:21 pm

  87. Yep, that’s been the scouting report on Japanese pitchers for years. “Solid for a while, but then get hit by comebackers to the mound. Struggle to get their elbows out of the way.”

    Comment by RationalSportsFan — March 8, 2012 @ 3:22 pm

  88. whats with all you people? dude’s just stating his opinion

    Comment by Woodrum's UZR Article — March 8, 2012 @ 3:33 pm

  89. Gimme a break.I was responding to the criticism that he both [1] tried to paint the corners too much and [2] left the ball out over the middle of the plate.

    My comments were essentially saying “if he just pitches perfectly then he should do alright.”

    I thought it was obvious that the tone was in jest to some of the really dumb comments made.

    Darvish wasn’t perfect over the two innings he pitched? Really? Wow. Amazing. Not perfect, huh? Who could have ever imagined that?

    Comment by CircleChange11 — March 8, 2012 @ 3:39 pm

  90. Roy Halladay fell apart in the midwest heat and humidity … in Chicago no less.

    Comment by CircleChange11 — March 8, 2012 @ 3:40 pm

  91. You could probably split the Padres squad 4 ways and not notice a difference in their hitting.

    Comment by Tom — March 8, 2012 @ 3:45 pm

  92. I don’t think you know anything about Japanese climate. Doesn’t stop you from having opinions about it, though.

    Comment by jeff_bonds — March 8, 2012 @ 4:09 pm

  93. japan is as jumid as it gets. believe me. i live there

    Comment by Daniel — March 8, 2012 @ 5:11 pm

  94. Wasn’t really clear to what/whom you were responding. As one of the people who commented on him missing location, that was a response to the article’s superlative language. If the article had said, as you did, that he looks like he’ll be fine, I’d have agreed.

    I’m still in the camp that expects very good things from this guy. That just doesn’t have anything to do with this performance.

    Comment by NS — March 8, 2012 @ 5:58 pm

  95. Also, when I say “he’ll be fine”, I mean “he’ll perform as expected” … not “he’ll be average” or “just so-so”.

    We could say “he’ll be fine” about Albert Pujols and Casey Kotchman without implying the same level of performance.

    Really, I think we’re reading FAR too much into [1] his first appearance of the year in spring training (regardless of league) and [2] 2 innings of performance.

    He threw hard, with control, and showed multiple quality pitches …. in his first start in the first week of March.

    If we apply the same criteria to every MLB pitcher in ST, we might conclude that they’re all flawed and have major concerns about all of them.

    Some of the comments seem like dad commentary after their kid pitches. Sure they did very well, but then again there were those 3 pitches that were less than perfect. *Shrugs*

    Comment by CircleChange11 — March 8, 2012 @ 6:07 pm

  96. Now, how many US or Latin pitchers have done the very same thing?

    This reminds me of how every hard throwing Texan is automatically compared to Nolan Ryan.

    You’d have thought everyone from Van Poppel to Kerry Wood was guaranteed a 20-year dominant career …. well, because they threw hard and were from Texas.

    Comment by CircleChange11 — March 8, 2012 @ 6:11 pm

  97. I don’t know about Texas but the Japanese climate includes Gigan and King Ghidorah.

    Comment by Coal Bear — March 8, 2012 @ 9:55 pm

  98. Hence, the comparison.

    Comment by bstar — March 8, 2012 @ 10:49 pm

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