FanGraphs Baseball


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  1. Interesting stuff as usual

    Comment by Eminor3rd — March 16, 2012 @ 8:44 am

  2. This is very interesting.

    As a Cards fan, we’re very familiar with Whitey and his style and preferences. When he said that Ozzie Smith should get paid like a “100 RBI guy” because he takes away 100 runs, he wasn’t exactly accurate, but we knew what he meant.

    Nowadays you read so much stuff — and go through it so fast — that maybe one little thing, one key note, doesn’t stick in your head.

    Excellent point.

    This is where I think coaches and data guys need to get together and see which form the data is most useful to the manager, graph, tables, color-coded, bullet points, etc.

    It also needs to be decided which data is most important.

    “As coaches — and I think Clint [Hurdle] would tell you the same thing — a lot of it still comes down to gut feeling. I set the defense on the infield and I can see how our pitcher is throwing and how a hitter is swinging. I know if he’s hot, and a lot of times you can tell by someone’s swing what he‘s trying to do.

    I don’t like that he uses the term “gut feeling” because it gives others the impression that it’s just a guess or a hunch when it actuality is a very strong inclination based on years of observations and experiences … in other words, based on quite a large amount of data. There just aren’t conscious calculations taking place.

    You can tell by a guy’s swing what types of pitches he’ll be more likely to pull (or late) and whether he’s more likely to hit a fly/ground ball, and when you put all that in combination with your pitcher is throwing that day based on all of the similar situations they’ve seen before, a “gut feeling” might be a rather strong decision.

    I just don’t want people to get the wrong idea about gut feeling. When a 20+ year veteran soldier has a gut feeling combat, it’s different than the solder that has a gut feeling in his first week in combat.

    My concern with gut feelings are the occasions where it ends up just being gas. Those situations don;t work out for anyone in the general area.

    Comment by CircleChange11 — March 16, 2012 @ 9:50 am

  3. believe it or not — our defensive alignments were done with colored pencils.

    There was an exhibit of one of Herzog’s colored shift cards in Cooperstown, back when he was enshrined. So, yes, I believe it!

    Comment by Max — March 16, 2012 @ 11:01 am

  4. Earl Weaver wrote about keeping hand written-stats on index cards. Like Leyva said, they had the inclination but not the tools.

    BTW, repackage “gut feeling” with a catchy or scientistic phrase like “blink” or “System 1” and you can get a sinecure at the New Yorker or a Sveriges Riksbank Prize.

    Comment by Steve Balboni — March 16, 2012 @ 1:26 pm

  5. How about a catchy phrase like “gut feeling”?

    (That’s actually quite a good book, btw, and uses some convincing baseball examples. And it still didn’t win a Nobel Prize.)

    Comment by fang2415 — March 19, 2012 @ 7:59 pm

  6. Dan Fox doesn’t do it, his intern does

    Comment by fang2416 — March 23, 2012 @ 11:03 am

  7. Hey Nick!

    Has Darren Dauton ever thanked you for putting him in the two spot? That gave him his uber contract with the Phillies. How is your pal Howard Eskin? Still calling him after staff meetings?

    Comment by delcathey — April 19, 2012 @ 11:45 pm

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