FanGraphs Baseball

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  1. Quick question mostly from a fantasy perspective of a guy who has enjoyed a lot of success relying on FIP. Should a large difference be expected? and what is considered dominate in terms of tRA? For example Beckett has been very good and his FIP and tRA are about a whole run different. Does this then mean Beckett has not been as dominant or is his 4+ tRA actually really good?

    Thanks for the help.

    Comment by Mike Ketchen — August 14, 2009 @ 3:38 pm

  2. Part of it may be that FIP and tRA are in different scales, so they’re not comparable to each other. FIP/.92 and tRA are more comparable. Also, pitchers who give up line drives will get punished more I think in tRA, so high line drive totals can drive tRA up, like in the case of Beckett last season.

    Comment by Michael — August 14, 2009 @ 3:52 pm

  3. And now Fangraphs OFFICIALLY is the only place you ever have to go for baseball stats ever.

    Comment by Jake — August 14, 2009 @ 4:37 pm

  4. 2 quick easy translations from tRA to tERA (tRA on the ERA scale)

    tERA = .92*tRA
    or even easier
    tERA = tRA – .35, but this breaks down at the extremes.

    Basically, 92% of runs allowed are earned, and that tends to be around .35 runs in the case of most pitchers.

    Comment by Jack Moore — August 14, 2009 @ 4:44 pm

  5. Congrats to Graham and Matthew.
    And thanks again to David for putting it up here.

    Eyeballing some of the differences, it appears that the differences in park factors may be a lot higher than I’d have thought. Colorado pitchers like Ubaldo Jimenez and Aaron Cook have ~1.0 difference in their statcorner and fangraphs tRAs. How do you do the park factors here (I guess this is to David)?

    Comment by marc w. — August 14, 2009 @ 5:09 pm

  6. What more can Fangraphs do to be crowned the absolute king of baseball stats and analysis?

    Bravo.

    Comment by Ed Nelson — August 14, 2009 @ 5:30 pm

  7. Maybe have some crazy splits section and be able to select games from the gamelogs like you can on B-Ref. Splits and gamelogs are pretty much the only thing I go to B-Ref for.

    Comment by Dan Novick — August 14, 2009 @ 5:35 pm

  8. And standings.

    Comment by Dan Novick — August 14, 2009 @ 5:39 pm

  9. Is there any reason that you guys don’t post averages for tRA and things like LD%, FB%, etc like you do for OBP/SLG/wOBA?

    Comment by Steve — August 14, 2009 @ 5:46 pm

  10. This is fantastic news!

    Has it been explained somewhere why Fangraphs presents FIP instead of xFIP? If so, I must have missed it.

    Comment by NadavT — August 14, 2009 @ 6:08 pm

  11. We have Colorado with a 109 park factor, but it’s my understanding that statcorner does component park factors on tRA and not just a single runs park factor? This could be a big difference.

    I also think that there may serious discrepancies in the IFFB stat that Gameday reports and BIS reports, by as much as 5%-10%/TBF. This however requires some further investigation, so don’t take the above sentence as gospel or anything.

    Comment by David Appelman — August 14, 2009 @ 6:32 pm

  12. Right; I’d initially thought that the discrepancies between Gameday/BIS would account for much of the difference. But – and I’m just eyeballing these right now – the larger differences in places like Colorado and Arizona make me wonder. A smaller variance in both batted-ball classification AND some park factor weirdness might account for it.

    Comment by marc w. — August 15, 2009 @ 1:32 am

  13. “It’s not a FIP killer by any means…”

    THANK YOU so much Graham. This really needed to be said.

    Comment by Aaron B. — August 15, 2009 @ 2:10 am

  14. Statcorner still has pitch results stats.

    Comment by Nick — August 15, 2009 @ 4:47 am

  15. You should really consider using component park factors. A lot of things like LD rate are affected heavily by ballpark for whatever reason. Just ask Brian Cartwright.

    Comment by Nick — August 15, 2009 @ 4:49 am

  16. Same.

    Comment by Nick — August 15, 2009 @ 4:49 am

  17. Dan, just curious which game logs you’re talking about, because we do have game logs.

    Comment by David Appelman — August 15, 2009 @ 7:59 am

  18. StatCorner has tRA*, which regresses the stats for the pitcher to league averages for the current season. It rules.

    Comment by Fresh Hops — August 15, 2009 @ 10:21 am

  19. Marc,

    If tRA uses batted balled data, how accurate is the stat corner version for minor leaguers?

    Minor league batted ball data for LD can be very iffy.

    Comment by metty5 — August 15, 2009 @ 11:40 am

  20. Where are the tRA stats located?

    Comment by rob m — August 15, 2009 @ 1:17 pm

  21. Player pages in the last column of the first “Batted Ball” section.

    Comment by Kincaid — August 15, 2009 @ 1:31 pm

  22. David,

    Don’t mean to speak for Dan, but I believe he’s talking about how B-R has the cumulative stats listed after each game. So if I look at, say, Yunel Escobar’s game log for June 30th, 2009(on Baseball-Reference) I can see that his OPS after that game was .777. If I then look at the game log for July 24th, I can see that Escobar upped his OPS to .856. So I can contrast those stats, which I like to do from time to time. You guys do have game logs(which include WPA and pLI, which is awesome), but they only list the events of that game; no overall stats.

    Or Dan might be talking about something else entirely. But that’s why look at B-R’s game logs, at least.

    Comment by TCQ — August 15, 2009 @ 9:05 pm

  23. I prefer xFIP to FIP in the first place, HR/FB% is just so darn random year to year that I can’t believe it is fully under the pitchers control and it seems to make xFIP much more consistent year to year than FIP.

    Have you guys ever thought of adding xFIP?

    Comment by Ender — August 16, 2009 @ 11:07 am

  24. Braden Looper is an example of what I’m talking about. The past 4 years his basic stats have remained relatively steady. The big difference is that in 2006 he gave up a lot fewer HR than normal and so far in 2009 he has given up a lot more than normal.

    This has caused a huge gap in his 2006 vs 2009 FIP(3.46-5.84), tRA(4.04-6.33) and ERA(3.56-4.99) that probably doesn’t really pinpoint the underlying skill level very well.

    His xFIP over that period has been steady though with a 4.33-4.93 range. I just feel xFIP shows true talent a lot better and FIP, ERA, tRA are much more results oriented which has its uses of course.

    Comment by Ender — August 16, 2009 @ 11:18 am

  25. Are you THE Ender? Like Ender Wiggin?

    By the way I also use B-R for getting stats on the entire league, especially their pitch data (Strike Swinging %, 1st Strike %, etc.)

    Comment by Brooksy Boy — August 17, 2009 @ 10:49 am

  26. Is there a difference between xFIP and FIP?

    Comment by shawndgoldman — August 17, 2009 @ 1:10 pm

  27. EDIT, sorry:

    Is there a difference between xFIP and tRA?

    Comment by shawndgoldman — August 17, 2009 @ 1:10 pm

  28. Yes.

    Comment by The Glossary — August 27, 2011 @ 9:15 am

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