FanGraphs Baseball


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  1. Dave, you churn out posts like a machine!

    This is good, will put an end to the constant trade speculation.

    Comment by Vin — April 2, 2012 @ 12:58 pm

  2. I’ll guess 7yrs, $175MM (in place of his existing contract). I think he actually has a really good shot of living up to that type of contract too.

    Comment by Okra — April 2, 2012 @ 1:02 pm

  3. Jooeeeyyy… You’re supposed to come to Torontoooo… doh!

    Comment by SC2GG — April 2, 2012 @ 1:14 pm

  4. The numbers imply 200+ so maybe 7/175 tacked on to the 26.5 for 12-13 so maybe 9/202?

    Comment by Psst — April 2, 2012 @ 1:19 pm

  5. They will just have to content themselves with just two 400 wOBA hitters

    Comment by Psst — April 2, 2012 @ 1:22 pm

  6. I’ll guess 6yrs, $130MM extension. Efectively giving him $156MM over the next 8 years at 19,5 per/year

    Comment by chel — April 2, 2012 @ 1:51 pm

  7. The Votto signing means that Phillips will be no longer be a Red.

    Comment by Steve — April 2, 2012 @ 2:28 pm

  8. The way I see it, Votto is a 7 WAR true talent player in 2012. If you regress for age immediately from 2013, his 2014-21 years will be 33 WAR (6.5 down to 2.5). At 5 million per WAR (a reasonable average for those years) you get 165 million. If you assume Votto won’t begin regressing until 2014, you can add 4 WAR and 20 million to make 185 million for 8 years. I could see the former being the deal – 8 years and 165 million. If Votto rakes in 2013-14, the Reds will have saved 40-70 million dollars (or in other words won’t watch Votto leave).

    In other words, I think Kemp’s deal is a low for a ceiling. Votto has been MVP level for the last 2 seasons and it is based almost entirely on hitting. Those guys get paid.

    Comment by TK — April 2, 2012 @ 2:48 pm

  9. Damn, all this money to spend and no one to spend it on this next offseason for the Dodgers! lol

    Comment by Ivdown — April 2, 2012 @ 3:04 pm

  10. Also reported that Matt Cain has reached a 5-year, $110 million extension with the Giants. Now seems more and more likely that the Dodgers are going to go after Cole Hamels with vigor.

    Comment by Joe N. — April 2, 2012 @ 3:17 pm

  11. He has shown more consistancy in his career numbers than Fielder,and is better on the field and running the bases. His career WAR matches Fielder’s even though playing 2 less full seasons than Fielder. Why not give him years and numbers like Fielder?

    Comment by Sam — April 2, 2012 @ 4:08 pm

  12. Dohhh

    Comment by AL Eastbound — April 2, 2012 @ 4:13 pm

  13. Because Fielder shouldn’t have gotten close to that? And he was a free agent and several years younger than Votto will be when he’s a free agent.

    Comment by TK — April 2, 2012 @ 4:34 pm

  14. Yeah, I love how excellent Brett Lawrie has been throughout his long major league career too.

    Comment by Daniel — April 2, 2012 @ 5:30 pm

  15. I strongly agree.

    I hope the Reds give him Fielder money … but then again I’m a cardinal fan.

    Comment by CircleChange11 — April 2, 2012 @ 5:34 pm

  16. I agree with Steve. Phillips is gone and so is Scott Rolen.

    Comment by WMHGANG — April 2, 2012 @ 6:21 pm

  17. And the official numbers are in: 10 years, $225 million. Contract starts in 2014 season, meaning it runs from his age 30 season through his age 39 season.

    Comment by ralph — April 2, 2012 @ 7:29 pm

  18. So, running some numbers assuming 0.5/WAR dropoff, here is the $/WAR given an few different assumed 2014 true talent WARs:

    With a 2014 true WAR of 6.5, the calculation yields a result of about $5.3 million/WAR.

    For a 6.0, it’s about $6.0M/WAR

    For a 5.5, it’s about $6.9M/WAR

    For a 5.0, it’s about $8.0M/WAR

    Comment by ralph — April 2, 2012 @ 7:50 pm

  19. I meant that his agent should reach for Fielder money, not that it was a good idea to sign him for it. Looks like you got your wish Circlechange

    Comment by Sam — April 2, 2012 @ 8:34 pm

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