FanGraphs Baseball

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  1. Why are Dave’s picks different than his ESPN picks?

    Comment by Ryan — April 4, 2012 @ 11:20 am

  2. Gallardo for NL Cy is a sneaky pick.

    Comment by mrjavascript — April 4, 2012 @ 11:21 am

  3. I made those ESPN picks weeks ago. These are updated to reflect things like the Chris Carpenter injury.

    Comment by Dave Cameron — April 4, 2012 @ 11:21 am

  4. Guess he changed his mind somewhere along the way?

    Comment by some guy — April 4, 2012 @ 11:24 am

  5. Dave, why do you hate the Dodgers, Rockies, Giants, Padres, Cubs, Astros, Brewers, Pirates, Nationals, Braves, Mets, Mariners, Athletics, Royals, Twins, White Sox, Indians, Rays, Jays, and Orioles? You biased pr*ck!

    Comment by Person — April 4, 2012 @ 11:25 am

  6. Man, it’s weird seeing Pujols next to the words ‘AL MVP’

    Comment by Always Sunny in CP — April 4, 2012 @ 11:25 am

  7. good question. Well, dave?

    Comment by Daniel — April 4, 2012 @ 11:26 am

  8. marc hulet is pretty bold…he picked KC and SD to win there divisions..hmm i wonder if prospect rankings and knowledge of that kinda of stuff played into that. also montero and pastornicky for ROYS is different than most…so is kemp

    Comment by Daniel — April 4, 2012 @ 11:27 am

  9. More guys pick Madison Bumgarner (4) to win the Cy Young over me.
    you guys are trying too hard.

    Comment by Roy Halladay — April 4, 2012 @ 11:28 am

  10. Winter is coming.

    Comment by Bobby Valentine — April 4, 2012 @ 11:28 am

  11. Because he’s so old?

    Comment by Jon — April 4, 2012 @ 11:29 am

  12. *throws a tomato*

    Comment by Vin — April 4, 2012 @ 11:29 am

  13. By my count 11 authors think St. Louis will go to the playoffs , while only 8 think Atlanta will. Seems to me you’re doing the wildcard tabulation wrong.

    Comment by Bryce — April 4, 2012 @ 11:30 am

  14. LOL at Marlins winning the World Series (first tomato thrown)!!

    Go BRAVES!!!!!!

    Comment by JT — April 4, 2012 @ 11:32 am

  15. Can someone explain why the Angels are such a favorite? They are very limited in their bats beyond Pujols. And what if Pujols struggles the first month or two to adjust to all the new and better pitching? After all, he isn’t going to be facing the Cubs and Pirates rotations now. It could cost them a couple wins in April & May which could cost them the division in what should be a close race all year with Texas.

    Comment by Steve — April 4, 2012 @ 11:32 am

  16. Re: Eno Sarris. I like the idea of Ryan Zimmerman, MVP. (Which is why I’m addressing it.) But, he doesn’t have Washington in the playoffs. Would the voters actually pick him if the Nationals miss out? Now, I think if the Nats DO make the playoffs (a year earlier than most suspect), their best player will have a decent shot at the award, and Zimmerman will very likely be their best player if healthy.

    Comment by Person — April 4, 2012 @ 11:34 am

  17. Wendy Thurm couldn’t pick Kershaw, bless her.

    Comment by My echo and bunnymen — April 4, 2012 @ 11:35 am

  18. Not one vote for Detroit as AL Champs? Heh.

    Comment by Ignorant Tool — April 4, 2012 @ 11:37 am

  19. I agree. Would he be deserving? Quite possibly. But I doubt that he can really win it.

    Comment by PatsNats28 — April 4, 2012 @ 11:40 am

  20. If the Nationals do make the playoffs or win the East, it wouldn’t shock me at all to see Zimmerman win NL MVP.

    Comment by dbake005 — April 4, 2012 @ 11:40 am

  21. WHY IS DAVE NOT ANSWERING?! WHY IS HE WITHHOLDING INFORMATION?!?!!? I SUSPECT SOMETHING SINISTER!!!!

    Comment by Bradley Woodrum — April 4, 2012 @ 11:42 am

  22. I love all the MadBum picks for Cy Young!

    Comment by jp_on_rye — April 4, 2012 @ 11:48 am

  23. If I were DC and asked to predict the future, I would pick different teams every time. It’s called playing the percentages. Read a book.

    Comment by ccoop — April 4, 2012 @ 11:50 am

  24. ’cause it ain’t about Pujols: it’s about that rotation.

    Comment by billybob — April 4, 2012 @ 11:50 am

  25. Or division and wild card are two different things.

    Comment by TK — April 4, 2012 @ 11:51 am

  26. Zimmerman would need dramatically better offense to actually win the MVP. Deserves got nothing to do with it.

    Comment by TK — April 4, 2012 @ 11:52 am

  27. because their rotation is as good–if not better–than philly’s last year.

    plus the addition of pujols. plus the addition of morales. plus (maybe) swapping trout for wells at some point.

    Comment by jcxy — April 4, 2012 @ 11:52 am

  28. Dave, when you are counting on Harper being called up by?

    Comment by Andrew — April 4, 2012 @ 11:53 am

  29. @Bill Petti,

    Do you really think the Reds, Brewers AND Cards will all finish with a better record than the 2nd best NL East team? I find that hard to fathom.

    Comment by TomahawkChopper — April 4, 2012 @ 11:54 am

  30. zimmerman has terrific counting stats, when healthy. 30+ hr power, 100+ rbi, etc etc are all within reach. he also plays terrific (+10) defense that certainly passes the smell test by traditional standards.

    Comment by cable fixer — April 4, 2012 @ 11:58 am

  31. Arizona to win the NL? Hahahahaha!!! Why? It’s not like they added major pieces, they overachieved their pythag last year, and their best players are due for a bit of regression.

    Comment by Ted Williams Head — April 4, 2012 @ 12:07 pm

  32. Simply put, this is too much of a mainstream pick.

    *Pushes hipster glasses up*

    Comment by bada bing — April 4, 2012 @ 12:17 pm

  33. At 36, will Pujols be the oldest MVP ever, or at least other than Bonds*?

    Comment by Angelsjunky — April 4, 2012 @ 12:55 pm

  34. I’m not sure how Bryce Harper will win the ROY after hitting .177 with 8 HR in 250 PA.

    Comment by Mike Trout — April 4, 2012 @ 12:57 pm

  35. Re: My Gamel ROY pick, which everyone has been so kind to ignore — missed that he lost his eligibility. I was trying to be cute — I don’t like the Reds youngsters for hardware this year. Respectability maybe. I’d change my pick to Trevor Bauer.

    Comment by Eno Sarris — April 4, 2012 @ 1:05 pm

  36. bravo. FG writers trying to outthink and/or outsmart the masses it seems

    Comment by Sleight of Hand Pro — April 4, 2012 @ 1:09 pm

  37. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conditional_probability

    Comment by Bryce — April 4, 2012 @ 1:31 pm

  38. “…he isn’t going to be facing the Cubs and Pirates rotations now”

    True, but he will be facing the Mariners and A’s, which aside from King Felix, is pretty much the same thing.

    Comment by siggian — April 4, 2012 @ 1:37 pm

  39. She a Giants fan?

    Comment by Fletch — April 4, 2012 @ 1:43 pm

  40. his ineligibility for the award shouldn’t prevent a voter from voting for him anyway. rafael palmeiro, anyone?

    Comment by jcxy — April 4, 2012 @ 1:45 pm

  41. Giants (Posey back and Belt proves himself), Brewers, Phillies. Marlins and Reds wild cards. Brewers to world series led by Gallatdo and Greinke.

    Angels, Tigers, Yanks, Blue Jays and Rays wild cards. tigers to world series. Tigers win. Thought that went into this? Hardly any.

    Comment by Wobatus — April 4, 2012 @ 1:50 pm

  42. No, because he’s usually in the NL

    Comment by Eminor3rd — April 4, 2012 @ 1:57 pm

  43. No poop.

    Comment by CircleChange11 — April 4, 2012 @ 2:07 pm

  44. Fathom?

    Aren’t you supposed to say “couldn’t possibly fathom”? and then I say something about you not being able to handle the truth and then you say crystal or something?

    Comment by CircleChange11 — April 4, 2012 @ 2:09 pm

  45. Pujols is 32

    Comment by JeffMathisCera — April 4, 2012 @ 2:22 pm

  46. And biggest surprise. Mets .500.

    Comment by Wobatus — April 4, 2012 @ 2:26 pm

  47. Well, there are 8 prediction that the Braves will be WC1 and there are 2 predictions the Cards will be along with 6 predictions that the Cards will be Central winners. However, in only 3 of those cases can you assume that the writer believe the Cards will win WC1 if they don’t win the Central (the 3 cases where they list another Central team as WC1). In the other 3 cases, you cannot assume that the writer believes the Cards will win more games than the WC1, so adding those would be incorrect. Further, I have no idea why you think the WC2 selections of the Cards bolster their ranking for WC1. If they wanted to determine winners based on just an average of the writers’ perceptions, they should have just given a win total for each team, averaged them, and determined who the division winners and wild cards would be.

    Comment by TK — April 4, 2012 @ 2:26 pm

  48. so basically 5/17 people think the Cards will at least win the WC1 if they don’t win the division (with not enough information for the other 3 that think they’ll win the division) and 8/20 people think the Braves will at least win the WC1.

    Comment by TK — April 4, 2012 @ 2:33 pm

  49. I guess Hulet thought he was still ranking the team’s minor leagues.

    Comment by Baltar — April 4, 2012 @ 2:36 pm

  50. Evidently your sarcasm detector is turned off.

    Comment by Angelsjunky — April 4, 2012 @ 3:33 pm

  51. LOL at 1997 and 2003. Those years were so hilarious.

    Comment by los — April 4, 2012 @ 4:43 pm

  52. surprised to see no one picked pomeranz for NL ROY

    Comment by jim — April 4, 2012 @ 5:12 pm

  53. The important thing is how you’ve done over the years. Why don’t you guys publish you % correct over what, say the last 6 years. How did you do in 2010 or 2011 for that matter.

    Comment by channelclemente — April 4, 2012 @ 5:48 pm

  54. He’s my No. 2 behind Bauer.

    Comment by Ben Duronio — April 4, 2012 @ 6:05 pm

  55. Just so I have it somewhere prior to “Opening Day”:

    TB, DET, TEX, *BOS, *LAA
    PHI, CIN, AZ, *MIA, *MIL, *WAS (MIL/WAS tie, play one-game playoff for 2nd WC)

    TB over BOS, TEX over DET, TB over TEX (Jennings MVP)
    CIN over AZ, MIA over PHI, CIN over MIA (Dat Dude BP MVP)
    TB over CIN (Zobrist MVP)

    MVPs: Adrian Gonzalez, Justin Upton
    CYs: Dan Haren, Cole Hamels
    ROY: Matt Moore, Brett Jackson

    Comment by scatterbrian — April 4, 2012 @ 6:41 pm

  56. the Marlins have never lost a post season series in their history. :)

    Comment by ausmax — April 4, 2012 @ 11:01 pm

  57. OK I read “The Hobbit.” Now what?

    Comment by Jay29 — April 5, 2012 @ 12:17 am

  58. Yeah. The fact is that the Cy Young is still voted on by the BBWAA.

    Comment by Jay29 — April 5, 2012 @ 12:19 am

  59. But he’s simply not a real MVP candidate. The BBWAA is not going to award an MVP to a guy who wins the WAR title in the NL because of his high UZR(and that’s the only possible way Zimmerman is going to outWAR the rest of the NL). Hunter Pence, any of St. Louis’ Berkman/Holliday/Freese trio, or even Uggla with a monster HR year or McCann for the Braves would be better darkhorse candidates.

    Comment by bstar — April 5, 2012 @ 5:58 am

  60. Love the obligatory * next to Bonds for no reason.

    Comment by bstar — April 5, 2012 @ 6:02 am

  61. she’s a big time SF fan.

    Comment by Christopher Benson — April 5, 2012 @ 9:32 am

  62. I dunno, Albert has a career .365/.451/.681 line vs. the Pirates. he’ll be hard pressed to match that kind of decimation this year against the A’s and Mariners.

    Comment by gonfalon — April 5, 2012 @ 11:49 am

  63. I’m shocked, SHOCKED! there is no love for the Pirates in that table. :colbert:

    Comment by gonfalon — April 5, 2012 @ 11:51 am

  64. I sure understand all the picks for Philadelphia to win the NL East, but no picks for Atlanta and several for Washington and Miami. What am I missing?

    Comment by bvillebaron — April 5, 2012 @ 12:42 pm

  65. nor ever won a division title.

    Comment by tom s. — April 6, 2012 @ 2:50 am

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