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  1. Technicality: He hit a batter (I think in the 4th inning) then got a GIDP. So he faced the minimum while not allowing a hit through 6, but he did not have a perfect game.

    Comment by Person — April 5, 2012 @ 12:02 pm

  2. then I read the full article, where you do mention the hit batter.

    i shouldn’t make such a fuss over a minor point, though

    Comment by Person — April 5, 2012 @ 12:03 pm

  3. That’s not a technicality. It’s pretty basic.

    Comment by cream — April 5, 2012 @ 12:12 pm

  4. Did Stanton have one inside-the-park HR (that blue dot on the warning track in left)?

    Comment by jrogers — April 5, 2012 @ 12:15 pm

  5. This is a new low.

    Comment by sprot — April 5, 2012 @ 12:25 pm

  6. Maybe it bounced off Canseco’s head.

    Comment by dkmin — April 5, 2012 @ 12:28 pm

  7. Oh, good point. I don’t know why that didn’t register.

    Comment by Bradley Woodrum — April 5, 2012 @ 12:31 pm

  8. I wonder why he hit almost all of his homeruns to the northern part of the stadium. Do you have data on the average wind direction in Florida?

    Comment by adohaj — April 5, 2012 @ 12:32 pm

  9. Yeah, most definitely not a Perfect Game into the 7th inning, Woodrum.

    Comment by JDanger — April 5, 2012 @ 12:33 pm

  10. What’s the point of comparing games within a 3-game sample size?

    Comment by Sean — April 5, 2012 @ 12:34 pm

  11. You guys don’t remember that game last year? It was on all the highlights. Out of nowhere, Jose Canseco emerged from the stands and ran full sprint towards the fence in left-center field and amazingly the ball hit him in the head! Again! Then the ball bounced over the fence and everyone was all, “here we go again” and then the camera zoomed in on Canseco and he just shrugged his shoulders and said, “what did I do this time?” and the whole stadium laughed so hard and then the theme music played. I can’t believe you guys don’t remember that game, it was claaaasic.

    Comment by JDanger — April 5, 2012 @ 12:38 pm

  12. If Miami’s park really does suppress offense as it appears it might, Mark Buehrle may really come to love his new home compared to his old one.

    Comment by steex — April 5, 2012 @ 12:39 pm

  13. I agree, the guy pitched a good game, it proves nothing mathmatically.

    Comment by Hurtlockertwo — April 5, 2012 @ 12:59 pm

  14. All this article did was show me a neat graphic of just how huge miamis field is

    Comment by Ricky — April 5, 2012 @ 1:16 pm

  15. A one game sample for a regression-based ERA estimator. This is fucking pathetic.

    Comment by billy — April 5, 2012 @ 1:26 pm

  16. pretty sure the main point was to remind us not to pay too much attention to FIP & xFIP early in the season

    Comment by Richard — April 5, 2012 @ 1:40 pm

  17. ….the complete absurdity of this column brings back fond memories of the infamous official position on UZR article.

    Comment by Jason — April 5, 2012 @ 1:43 pm

  18. Yeah, I think he was just trying to break down how one game relates to FIP, xFIP and SIERA.

    Comment by SeanP — April 5, 2012 @ 1:52 pm

  19. Bradley,

    You note that many of the balls in play could very well have been hits and suggest that sampling might play a role (!). However, you fail to follow this to its logical conclusion that sampling might play a role in everything about this start (BECAUSE IT IS ONE START AND YOU HAVE NO DATA!!!!). If you had considered the full implications of your insight (!) about some balls in play being hits on another day you surely would not have written this column.

    For example, perhaps on another day some of those hitters where he induced weak contact would have struck out. …imagine what three more strike outs would do to his FIP in about 25 batters faced….

    The best way to describe a single start is to actually watch it and see how the guy pitched and how the batters reacted.

    Comment by Jason — April 5, 2012 @ 2:00 pm

  20. Yes. This.

    Comment by Bradley Woodrum — April 5, 2012 @ 2:17 pm

  21. Then you obviously understood the point of the article.

    Comment by chuckb — April 5, 2012 @ 2:53 pm

  22. This article has very little to do with saying “omg, Lohse looks good based on FIP, but I’m going to be cutting edge and say he’s bound to regress”.

    It’s saying “uh, yup, FIP’s broke until about the start of May, you guys”.

    Comment by CJ — April 5, 2012 @ 8:21 pm

  23. Also a great way to explain the basics of the calculations using one game worth of data. Makes the formulas a little easier to understand as well. Great piece.

    Comment by Guertez — April 5, 2012 @ 10:25 pm

  24. He should’ve been working on a perfect game, though. The only reason Bonifacio (sp?) got hit was because he moved into the pitch trying to bunt.

    Comment by Lanidrac — April 5, 2012 @ 11:36 pm

  25. You need to realize that looking at Lohse’s career ratios is nearly meaningless in his case. Dave Duncan turned around his career in 2008, and then he was pitching hurt for most of 2009 and 2010. You should really just be looking at 2008 and 2011 to see what kind of continually underrated pitcher this guy truly is. For example, his expected HR/9 rate should be a lot closer to the 0.81 and 0.76 marks he posted in 2008 and 2011 rather than his 1.10 career rate.

    Comment by Lanidrac — April 5, 2012 @ 11:52 pm

  26. True, if you take out all of his bad years and just include the (somewhat luck induced) good years he is a really good pitcher. I imagine the improvements in his BB rate are for real so he is a tiny bit better than his career stats but not by much. Most of this ‘reinventing’ was playing in a pitchers park in the NL with a good defense, not much that he actually changed.

    Comment by Ender — April 6, 2012 @ 2:13 am

  27. Like I said, those bad years were only because of injury.

    You underestimate how much of an influence Dave Duncan can have on a pitcher’s career. Busch Stadium III is not a pitcher’s park. It’s a neutral park that leans slightly towards pitching, plus the Cardinals’ infield defense was pretty bad last year.

    Even if it did have a lot to do with it, he’s still pitching in the NL and the same ballpark and with improved infield defense, so he should still have another good year.

    Comment by Lanidrac — April 6, 2012 @ 4:15 am

  28. Why would you want to break down one game to FIP and SIERA?

    Comment by bstar — April 6, 2012 @ 6:29 am

  29. I agree….point out the flaws in that metric vis-a-vis small sample sizes. I thought it was an awesome piece….now I run to sell high on Lohse!

    Comment by DC Nats — April 6, 2012 @ 10:32 am

  30. I think this shows how Matheny is getting better results with Lohse than LaRussa did, he seemed more relaxed as did the rest of the ballclub. Miami on the other hand looked tight,made some mental mistakes, and overall looked like a reflection of their manager (a lot of bluster, but not much substance)

    Comment by Eron — April 6, 2012 @ 11:14 am

  31. Yawn.

    FIP, and all its myriad variations are based upon several false premises–but to cut to the most basic, which FIP does NOT acknowledge: Across MLB, every year without exception, pitchers ahead in the count permit lower BABIP than pitchers even in the count, who in turn permit lower BABIP than pitchers behind in the count.

    But. But isn’t just the BABIP. It’s the percentage of doubles and triples among balls-in-play, too.

    Think on it. What we all know intuitively as a truism…is actually true. And ignored by SIERA, et.al..

    Specifically regarding Lohse: If memory serves, he had the *highest* percentage of first-pitch strikes in the N.L. last year.

    It really ain’t that complicated. Watch a tape of the game. See how often *induced* weak contact happened (something that doesn’t exist within the pristine confines of theory-based, FIP, xFIP, and SIERA premises).

    Of course it wasn’t a “real & genuine” outstanding performance on the bump. Stanton should’ve had at least one tater. But all in all, Lohse — via his control of the count — pitched the kind of solid, stolid game that winds up in a win 80-90% of the time (90% with an offense like StL has this year).

    Good enough for me. ;)

    Comment by Bob — April 7, 2012 @ 3:04 am

  32. I just don’t get why people who obviously refuse to see the merit in advanced stats continue to come on this site and complain about how their favorite player is made to look bad because of them. Do you really need attention *that* badly?

    All that “induced weak contact” has helped Lohse beat his FIP/xFIP over his career, just like Matt Cain, right?

    Comment by y — April 7, 2012 @ 10:43 am

  33. I do need attention, and quite badly.

    The advanced stats, so called, like FIP, xFIP, and Siera Madre Treasure or whatever it is, are mere data points to be considered when evaluating pitching performances — be it one game (which was all I was talking about, when it comes to Lohse), one season, or an entire career.

    Again, every year without exception, MLB pitchers as a whole permit lower BABIP (and, as a percentage, fewer doubles and triples on balls in play) when ahead in the count than even in the count. And lower BABIP when even in the count than when behind.

    Since this is true, every single year, of pitchers as a group, it stands to reason that some pitchers are better able to exploit this advantage than others — whether for a single batter, or a single game, or a season, etc..

    In short, FIP theory presumes that getting strike three on a batter is entirely based upon a pitcher’s skill…but simultaneously presumes that a pitcher being ahead, or even, or behind in the count when a ball is put in play has no bearing whatsoever on the outcome of the play. And the latter is provably false.

    Comment by Bob — April 7, 2012 @ 12:01 pm

  34. Wouldn’t it make sense to regress (pad) FIP’s baseline with previous year data until there’s enough current year data to make it useful? I mean, it makes sense to report BA, SLG, ERA, etc. based only on this year’s data, but it’s silly to have a baseline constructed from three game’s worth of data.

    Comment by Lex Logan — April 9, 2012 @ 10:20 am

  35. Then he went on Twitter and shamelessly begged his ex to take him back.

    Comment by Matt — April 19, 2012 @ 2:55 pm

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